"What do you think?" Fang Zhicheng decided to ask Sui Qi what he thought.
"Real estate has been rising since 1998, and has developed in a distorted direction, especially since 2008. Initially, it was an economic engine for government development, but now it has deviated from its original intention and has become a huge burden on ordinary people. An ordinary family who wants to buy a house can only afford the down payment, and at the same time they have to save money and pay the mortgage. Therefore, national regulation is necessary, but it is a little late." Sui Qi's analysis and interpretation of the real estate industry is still very objective and fair. "If corresponding policies had been formulated in advance before the bubble came in the past few years, a soft landing could have been achieved, and even if problems occurred, the impact would not be too great. But now, if the measures are too strict, it will only make the real estate industry ignite like a bomb, blowing the local economy up beyond recognition."
Fang Zhicheng nodded and said, "You are right, but remember, serious illnesses require strong medicine. Now the domestic real estate has reached the critical point of collapse. The reason why the subprime mortgage crisis in Europe brought about several years of economic depression is that the real estate industry has brought a huge bubble to the economic system. We can't wait any longer and must quickly solve this chronic disease. Relatively speaking, Cao Yao's situation is not that serious. First of all, the housing prices are not high, and secondly, the scale of real estate is not large. Therefore, if we take advantage of the situation now to rectify it, the impact will not be too wide, and the government is also able to bear the corresponding consequences."
Sui Qi sighed: "Are you really going to do this? This will greatly weaken the enthusiasm of local governments to attract investment."
Fang Zhicheng said patiently: "The current situation of local governments relying on real estate companies needs to be adjusted. This is actually a symptom of an unreasonable industrial structure."
Sui Qi asked: "Do you have a backup plan?"
Fang Zhicheng smiled and said, "The government must diversify its investment promotion efforts. Sixty percent of the companies that Cao Yao has attracted in recent years are related to real estate. Over time, they will eventually follow the old path of those cities in southern Huainan. Since we know that is a dead end, why not find another way?"
"What do you think?" Fang Zhicheng successfully aroused Sui Qi's interest. Sui Qi knew that Fang Zhicheng was wearing the hat of a strategic master, and couldn't help but be curious about what Fang Zhicheng was up to this time!
"Since 2003, some people have actually proposed the concept of industrial real estate. Good results have been achieved in several cities in the southern part of Huainan. Why has Caoyao not had particularly good new enterprises? On the one hand, it is because there are no good seeds, and on the other hand, there is no good soil. Good enterprises or good industries need to be nurtured, so an industrial cluster is needed. Industrial real estate is built against this background." Fang Zhicheng said patiently, "Caoyao currently has economic development zones and industrial parks, but those are not industrial real estate in the strict sense. Real industrial real estate should be an industrial model where the government lets go and large enterprises take the lead."
Sui Qi had heard of the concept of industrial real estate and sighed: "The key problem with Cao Yao is the lack of such enterprises that can support the industry."
Fang Zhicheng smiled faintly and said, "In fact, I have already thought about it. Caoyao Heavy Industry Group is a leading industrial real estate enterprise with appeal. With Caoyao Heavy Industry Group as the core, we will build an infrastructure that integrates stand-alone office buildings, high-rise office buildings, commercial centers, standardized factory buildings, etc. to meet the production and office needs of heavy industry enterprises."
"This is indeed a large-scale plan, but it cannot solve the current panic in the real estate industry." Sui Qi still said worriedly. In Fang Zhicheng's view, industrial real estate is just a strategy to divert the current more intense contradictions in real estate.
As the executive vice mayor, Sui Qi needs to be responsible for the city's economic development. If the local government loses real estate as a performance indicator, the city's GDP this year will inevitably be in trouble, and Sui Qi needs to bear the corresponding responsibility.
This also indirectly proves the importance of the National Development and Reform Commission. One document is enough to change the local situation.
Fang Zhicheng lowered his voice and said calmly: "Don't underestimate the strength of businessmen. Any company with a little bit of strength has the risk of resisting policies. Besides, now I ask them not to raise prices. Have you ever thought that if the bubble bursts, then they may not be able to get away with it even if they lower prices."
Sui Qi was slightly startled and asked in surprise: "Why are you so pessimistic?"
Fang Zhicheng sighed and said, "It seems that you all don't realize the courage of the country this time. The head of the Tang family has been developing in southern Hunan in recent years. You can try to analyze a series of policies in southern Hunan. If nothing unexpected happens, the entire southern Hunan is the region with the lowest risk factor under this real estate regulation policy."
Sui Qi was a little absent-minded and sighed: "Many people have a lucky mentality."
Fang Zhicheng said: "This national macro-control seems to be aimed at local real estate bubbles, but in fact it is an arrangement made to target the high housing prices in second- and third-tier cities. In addition to first-tier cities such as Yunhai, Yanjing, and Yuezhou, second-tier cities will be suppressed to a certain extent. The ones that will be directly affected will be third-tier cities, and Caoyao is included in them."
Sui Qi secretly thought that Fang Zhicheng was a meticulous thinker, and she also saw that the nationwide regulation of real estate this time was also a bottom-up move. This was mainly because big cities like Yanjing and Yunhai did not have an oversupply situation. What really needed to be solved was the oversupply in third- and fourth-tier cities, and the blind and indiscriminate development.
Sui Qi said: "I can probably guess what you are thinking."
Fang Zhicheng took a sip of tea from his teacup and said with a smile, "It's worth all the time I've told you."
Sui Qi understood Fang Zhicheng's real intention. Preventing real estate developers from raising prices was actually related to future trends. In other words, real estate developers in third- and fourth-tier cities would encounter a cold wave and would not be able to raise prices even if they wanted to. Fang Zhicheng merely interpreted this in advance and put it in the policy documents. In addition, the policy on special-price housing was the same. If real estate developers encountered a bad situation, they would definitely launch a series of promotional policies. Fang Zhicheng merely explained this in the documents in advance.
Even this document, because it was placed in advance of the upcoming cold wave, real estate developers can take advantage of this policy to increase transaction volume earlier and store a certain amount of food for the coming cold winter.
Fang Zhicheng is already different from other officials. Most other officials can only respond to situations as they arise, but Fang Zhicheng can interpret key national policies, analyze and interpret them, and then transform them into usable resources, gradually guiding the industrial layout to adapt to the policies.
In the layout of the Internet industry, Fang Zhicheng used this ability to help Hanzhou get ahead of the competition, and has gradually produced obvious results in the past two years. This time, on the issue of real estate regulation, Fang Zhicheng has begun to use his abilities to help Cao Yao's real estate developers avoid risks.
Before the cold winter came, Cao Yao issued this policy document to make people pay attention to real estate and reach a deal. Real estate developers can find buyers before the trough, so that they can hoard some funds to tide over the difficulties. In addition, Cao Yao's real estate bubble is not particularly large. If this defensive policy document can be successfully implemented, it may be a warm winter.
Chapter 0992: The Ability to Predict the Future
The "Several Suggestions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" drafted by the Caoyao Municipal Development and Reform Commission was discussed and approved at the regular meeting of the Standing Committee and issued in a very short time. A supervision group was established under the leadership of the Municipal Government Inspection Office, and the Municipal Government Secretary-General Tu Daofeng served as the main person in charge of the supervision group to promote the strict implementation of this policy in all counties and districts in the city.
After the suggestions were issued to the counties and districts, they caused a strong backlash. Many developers found it difficult to understand and put pressure on the municipal government through various channels. However, in China, power is above everything. Even if you are rich, you still have to bow your head when facing power.
Of course, some developers also smelled business opportunities and launched a series of promotional advertisements while the government was regulating the real estate industry, such as "Cold wave is coming, zero down payment, seeking a warm winter" and "Respond to the policy, 70% off on houses", etc. A large number of special-price houses emerged in the Caoyao market, which not only gave the local residents a sense of bargain hunting, but also attracted a large group of speculators to rush in and buy.
Therefore, the real estate in Caoyao City did not encounter a cold snap due to the regulation, but instead became popular. This even attracted the attention of many media, which interpreted the Caoyao phenomenon.
An industry review believes that although the policies introduced by the Caoyao Municipal Government have limited the rising momentum of real estate prices, they have gained the trust of the people in the real estate industry, activated rigid demand, and made the people understand that the government cares about their housing problems. Because the Caoyao Municipal Government has good control, although a large amount of funds from real estate speculation groups have entered, they find it difficult to sell at high prices in a short period of time, which has a good effect on controlling bubbles. In addition, real estate developers should have smelled the crisis since the year before last. They know better than anyone that there are risks in rising housing prices, so they use this round of policies to try to hoard funds and reserve enough food for the coming cold winter.
Wei Qun sat at his desk and carefully read through the many measures Cao Yao took to control the real estate industry. He couldn't help but let out a sigh of relief. Since the last video conference, the provincial government has been studying how to eliminate the bubble in the Huainan real estate industry. Due to various risks, it has not been finalized. This made the provincial party secretary Wen Jinglong very annoyed. He called Wei Qun, the main person in charge of drafting the document, almost every day.
The opinions issued by Caoyao City this time, although simple, are highly executable and more effective and targeted than the current draft of the provincial guiding documents.
"Fang Zhicheng is truly a talented person!" Wei Qun put the materials aside, sighed deeply, and then called his secretary to ask him to call over Shen Hanchun, director of the National Development and Reform Commission.
About half an hour later, Shen Hanchun hurried over. Wei Qun looked at him carefully and suddenly found that Shen Hanchun had lost a lot of weight in the past two years. His eyes were not as bright as before, and his wrinkled face looked even more haggard.
"I just read the suggestions formulated by the Caoyao Municipal Development and Reform Commission to address the local real estate industry bubble. I believe you have also studied it. What do you think of this document?" Wei Qun glanced at Shen Hanchun calmly.
Shen Hanchun has become accustomed to Wei Qun's way of doing things. He always has an idea in his mind, and asking himself is just a process. Shen Hanchun paused for a few seconds and said slowly: "It's a good guiding document, but it's only suitable for Cao Yao, not for full implementation in the province. Because the situation in several cities in the southern part of Huainan is relatively special, if that kind of mandatory document is used, it may cause a strong backlash."
Watching Wei Qun's frown slowly relax, Shen Hanchun knew that he had guessed Wei Qun's thoughts and ideas correctly. Wei Qun touched his chin and sighed, "So the provincial policy documents should be more macroscopic and not too detailed, otherwise it will be difficult for local authorities to implement and will become a piece of empty paper. Secretary Jinglong has been urging us for a long time, so we must form a document within two days and distribute it to all levels of departments across the province."
Shen Hanchun nodded and said, "I understand what you mean. I will prepare the materials as soon as possible and give them to you for review."
Wei Qun smiled slightly, and the atmosphere eased a lot. He whispered, "Old Shen, have you heard any rumors recently?"
Shen Hanchun raised the corner of his mouth awkwardly and said, "I heard it, but I don't believe it."
Wei Qun nodded with satisfaction and said, "Believe in your own judgment. Go and get busy."
Wei Qun looked worried as he watched Shen Hanchun leave the office. After years of working in the officialdom, Wei Qun had long been accustomed to all kinds of pressure and could handle any problem with ease. Even when he first came to Huainan and had problems with the coordination with the top leader Wen Jinglong, he was able to get away with it.