After Kirilenko and the others heard Feng Yu's analysis, they all looked at a loss.
"Feng, what kind of good news is Fannie and Freddie Group being taken over by the US government?"
Feng Yu felt that a lot of what he had said before was in vain. The financial sense of these people was really bad!
"This means that Fannie and Freddie will drag down the overall economy of the United States, and the financial crisis in the United States will inevitably break out completely, which will trigger high-energy negative effects in the financial market."
Kirilenko and the others can still understand the word "negative". In other words, financial markets are about to plummet.
Fu Guangwei looked unbelievable: "Brother Feng, the stock market in the United States has fallen so much, is it going to fall further?"
Although the stock market in the United States has fallen a lot, the stock market has not yet collapsed because that country has the largest amount of investment.
The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has already made the U.S. stock market turbulent. As long as there is another major negative news at this time, the U.S. government will no longer be able to control the stock market.
In fact, not only the stock market, but also the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil and gold will inevitably fall sharply.
When bad news is flying all over the sky, although it is also a time when there are the most opportunities, more investors will definitely choose to hold money instead of financial products.
Therefore, once the situation that Fannie and Freddie Group is taken over by the US government breaks out, and high-energy negative effects appear in the financial market, crude oil will inevitably plummet, and the stock market will inevitably plummet.
Fu Guangzheng stepped on Fu Guangwei under the table and said with a smile: "Feng Yu, so the crude oil futures we invested in are about to enter a period of high-speed money making again?"
Fu Guangzheng rolled his eyes at Fu Guangwei. If you don't understand, you can ask, but why are you showing that suspicious look
It’s okay to doubt others, but how can you doubt Feng Yu? Over the years, has Feng Yu made mistakes in his judgment on the financial market
People who follow to make money still talk so much nonsense! Look at Kirilenko, look at He Laosan, learn from them!
"Of course, the price of crude oil is not falling fast yet. Many people believe that it will be enough if crude oil falls to around 80 US dollars, and crude oil will return to a period of stable fluctuations with prices around 10 US dollars."
"But if there is a high-energy negative event, the price of crude oil will fall all the way, falling below the true value of crude oil, making our profits even higher!"
Fifty or sixty US dollars, which is generally believed to be the true value of crude oil, but Feng Yu also told them that the United States has begun to develop shale oil, and the cost of shale oil is almost more than sixty US dollars, so crude oil The reasonable price should be seventy or eighty dollars.
But when the financial crisis breaks out, this so-called reasonable price will definitely be broken down. There is no doubt about this.
Kirilenko asked again at this time: "Feng, didn't you say that the fall in the stock market would stimulate investors to invest money in other financial products? If the stock market fell sharply, wouldn't those hot money pour into the futures market? "
Fu Guangwei also looked curious, and he thought so too.
Feng Yu shook his head: "Under normal circumstances, it is normal to think this way. But if this bad news affects the entire financial market, it will trigger an overall decline and a real financial crisis."
"When these investments are likely to lose money, are you willing to invest? Do you think it is safer to hold the money in your hands? At this time, will you also sell many financial products?"
"What about gold?" Kirilenko asked: "At this time, shouldn't everyone buy gold? Does it mean that the price of gold will rise sharply again?"
Gold is a truly international currency. When the prices of other products may plummet, and even the US dollar is depreciating, there will definitely be many people investing in gold, right
Why did Feng Yu say that even the price of gold had to fall
"Panic will make many people sell their gold. In addition, many investors who have lost money in other areas will also sell their gold to make up for their losses and tide over the difficulties."
"But what you said makes sense. When other products are unreliable, and even the exchange rates of the U.S. dollar and euro are falling, many people will definitely buy gold, and the price of gold will definitely rise."
"But the rise in gold prices will inevitably be accompanied by a wave of gold price falls before ushering in slow growth."
"So the price of gold will definitely fall at this time. Don't think that just because the price of gold has risen in the past few days, you just buy gold. In a few days, gold will plummet."
"When the price of gold falls to a certain extent, it is time for us to buy gold. But by that time, the price of crude oil will definitely rebound, and the magnitude of the rebound of crude oil will definitely exceed that of gold. After all, the price of crude oil , it is impossible to stay below a reasonable price.”
At that time, the price of crude oil will double in just a few months, but gold will not be able to achieve this increase.
Therefore, even though Feng Yu believes that gold will rise, and at a good rate, he is not ready to continue investing heavily in gold. It is better to invest in crude oil first.
After making enough money from crude oil, he can then invest in gold and cross over so that he can always make good profits.
"Do you know why I said that the price of crude oil will drop rapidly? Think about OPEC?"
"Are you talking about them increasing production?" Fu Guangzheng asked doubtfully.
"Yes, but it's not just about increasing production. Don't forget that at this time, countries such as the United Arab Emirates are investing heavily in infrastructure, which requires huge funds. They have a fanatical interest in the names of some of the tallest buildings in the world, and they also have to This is to revitalize the tourism industry.”
In Feng Yu's view, this is just like the situation at Huaxia Sanya, which caused a glut of real estate. Although the property market here may not necessarily collapse, borrowing money to invest in this and playing it so big is simply stupid.
Infrastructure construction takes a long time, and it takes too long for funds to be withdrawn, which makes their interest continue to increase. In order to repay the money, they must increase production and exploit more oil to repay the debt. Then the actual increase in OPEC's production will definitely exceed their planned increase.
"The increase in production in those countries will itself cause the price of crude oil to fall, and the fall in crude oil price will in turn stimulate them to increase production and maintain income. This is a vicious cycle."
"Coupled with this financial crisis, many financial institutions will lose a lot of money. Will they want to make money back in other ways? Short-selling crude oil futures is a good choice, right?"
In the previous life, crude oil fell below reasonable prices. Without the promotion of financial institutions, this could not have been achieved simply by bad news about the financial crisis.
In this life, coupled with the promotion of Feng Yu and others, crude oil will definitely fall sharply. Maybe the price will be even lower than in the previous life!
"Anyway, let's just wait for the good news!"
... The second update of the fourth chapter. Thanks to Redwood 255, aHeheDaMengMengDa, Dream Seeker, Guzhai and other book friends for their rewards. Thank you.