While "Run Lola Run" and "The Butterfly Effect" are still in theaters, Disney announced the next day that it will launch a distribution cooperation with Daenerys Pictures on the "When Harry Met Sally" project. information.
Daenerys Films here.
Although he expressed dissatisfaction with Simon's promise to Disney of a guaranteed commission of US$6 million, due to the agreement in the original contract that the project distribution would be completely led by Daenerys Pictures, Craft Pictures head Dennis O'Brien could only complain. Ichiban.
After several days of negotiations, Daenerys Pictures officially signed a distribution contract with Disney on May 5 for "When Harry Met Sally."
After finalizing the release of "When Harry Met Sally", Daenerys Pictures only needs to concentrate on completing the production of three movies, and Simon also begins to turn some of his energy to another of his projects.
Wednesday, May 6th.
In the Century Tower apartment, Simon did not go out this morning.
For the sake of confidentiality, two managers from Lehman Brothers came to him in person to handle the procedures for opening a futures account.
Near 11 o'clock, Lehman Brothers Senior Vice President Jeff Robertson re-checked various formalities and carefully put some documents into his briefcase. Then he stood up and said to Simon: "Mr. Westeros , you can contact Noah directly for the next matter. Of course, if you need any help, you can also call me at any time."
Simon shook hands with Jeff Robertson politely and sent him out the door. Then he looked at the thirty-year-old white man who stayed beside him. The man was about the same height as Simon, with brown hair, a clean face, and was wearing a meticulous white shirt and black trousers.
This is the classmate Janet introduced to Simon, named Noah Scott. He is currently serving as the vice president of the Chicago branch of Lehman Brothers, mainly responsible for the futures brokerage business.
In order to sign Simon, a major customer, Noah Scott came specially from Chicago.
The two sat down on the sofa in the living room again. Simon looked at the young man opposite and said tentatively: "Noah, if my guess is correct, you and Jenny are not in the same class, right?"
But Noah Scott shook his head, looked at Simon also, and said: "Unfortunately, Simon, Jenny and I are still in the same class."
Simon raised his eyebrows slightly and said, "Then you should be more powerful than I thought."
If he were in the same class as Janet, Noah Scott might only be 27 years old this year. Becoming the vice president of Lehman Brothers at the age of 27 was somewhat beyond Simon's expectations.
The job structure in investment banks is different from that in other companies.
In the early days of the development of investment banks, in order to maintain equal status with corporate executives in the business negotiation process, investment banks gave their employees the titles of managing director, executive general manager, senior vice president, vice president, assistant vice president, etc. These positions All the names were later retained.
So on Wall Street, the slightly larger investment banks typically have a few hundred vice presidents.
However, this by no means means that it will be easy to become a vice president of an old investment bank like Lehman Brothers. An excellent business school graduate joins an investment bank and goes from the lowest level analyst to assistant vice president to vice president. , under normal circumstances, it is basically impossible not to survive for seven or eight years.
Faced with Simon's surprise, Noah Scott was very calm and said: "Actually, Simon, my father is a senior executive of Express Company. Of course, I am also confident enough to be qualified for the current position. Your funds are in I’m very safe here. So, what are you going to do next?”
Simon vaguely recalled that American Express seemed to have acquired Lehman Brothers a few years ago, but his memory was not too detailed. However, Simon also knows that although large investment banks are full of elites, they are also full of various connections.
Out of trust in Janet, Simon didn't dwell on this.
However, after hearing the other party's question, Simon did not intend to reveal his plan to Noah Scott. The two of them have not yet reached that level of trust, and there are too many instances of Wall Street backhanding its own clients.
"Noah, $75 million will be deposited into Westeros' account this afternoon. Back in Chicago, all you need to do is buy 1,000 S&P 500 futures in the last two days of this week. Long September contract.”
Noah Scott nodded slightly and asked: "Then what?"
Simon said succinctly: "Wait. Wait for the next instruction I give you."
Noah Scott thought for a moment and then tried again: "Simon, do you want to do long-term business?"
"Maybe," Simon responded noncommittally, looked at the young man opposite and said, "Noah, you have to understand that I don't need investment consultation. My request is very simple, I say, you do it."
Noah Scott felt Simon's sharp gaze. After a moment, he shrugged, changed his position on the sofa slightly, and said: "Of course, Simon, the customer is God. However, you don't seem to trust me too much. "
Simon asked rhetorically: "If we switched places, would you trust me the first time we met?"
"If I were 19 years old, I might believe it," Noah Scott said with a bit of ridicule in his tone, but then added: "In this case, Simon, in terms of business, maybe we don't have much to talk about. . So, can you tell me how you caught up with Jenny? Many of us tried to pursue her back then, but we all failed."
Simon didn't want to talk too much about himself and Janet's privacy. He just shook his head, stood up and said, "Sorry, Noah, I can't treat you to lunch today. Maybe there will be an opportunity in the future."
Noah Scott didn't bother, he stood up, shook hands with Simon, and said, "I look forward to increasing the trust between us next time we meet."
After sending Noah Scott away, Simon found a recent trend chart of the S&P 500 Index from the coffee table in the living room and came to the study.
Standing in front of the large white writing board next to the study wall, Simon raised the S&P 500 index trend chart as of yesterday in his hand and compared it with another S&P 500 trend curve drawn from memory on the writing board.
In order to avoid disturbing his memory, Simon had not paid attention to the recent stock index curves before today. But at this time, the S&P 500 curve in his hand before May 6, 1987 basically matched the other curve on the writing board before the relevant time node.
Well, the memory is clearly not wrong.
Simon is basically relieved. Although his own 'butterfly' appears, he does not think that the S&P 500 index futures market with a single-day trading volume of more than 1 billion US dollars will be too seriously disrupted.
Based on the data accumulated during this period, Simon discovered that 1987 was completely the "barbaric era" of stock index futures trading. This era is full of opportunities, but there are also countless traps. It can make people rich overnight, but it can also make people lose everything in an instant.
Unlike commodity futures, which have been developed for more than a century, the world's first stock index futures were only born in the United States in 1982, five years ago.
1982 happened to be the beginning of a new round of stock bull market in the United States.
Since 1982, the Dow Jones Index, the most important measure of the U.S. stock market, has risen from 800 points to the recent 2,300 points. Simon also knows that in the next few months, the Dow Jones Index will reach a maximum of more than 2,700 points.
The booming development of the stock market has easily covered up the various shortcomings in stock index futures trading.
Anyone who knows a little bit about futures probably knows that stock index futures have daily price limit rules, circuit breakers, debt-free settlement, position limits and other trading rules to protect the market.
However.
Now in 1987, none of this exists.
Dow Jones Index futures have not yet been launched. Take the mainstream S&P 500 Index futures currently on the market. The trading process of stock index futures is actually very simple.
The recent S&P 500 index is around 270 points. Simon remembers that the S&P 500 index reached a peak of over 330 points at the end of August.
So.
Take the S&P 500 index as an integer of 300 points as an example:
Each stock index futures has a 'contract multiplier'. Later, the 'contract multiplier' for S&P 500 futures was $250, but now it is $500.
Therefore, the actual value of each S&P 500 futures contract is 'index points' multiplied by the 'contract multiplier', which is $150,000. However, futures traders only need to pay a 10% margin to buy a contract, which is $15,000.
Next, every 1 point increase or decrease in the S&P 500 index means a profit or loss of $500 for one contract.
$500 may not seem like much, but if multiplied by 10,000 contracts, the profit and loss represented by each 1-point change in the index will expand to $5 million.
Calculated based on a margin of US$15,000 per contract, 10,000 contracts would require a margin of US$150 million. Therefore, compared with the huge margin of 150 million US dollars, the profit and loss of 5 million US dollars is still nothing.
From 1982 to the present, the North American stock market has been showing a very stable upward trend, rarely experiencing violent fluctuations. Because of this relatively flat market situation, the 'minimum tick' for the S&P 500 Index contract is actually 0.1 points.
Since it has not experienced major changes, federal regulatory authorities have not imposed various restrictions on the stock index futures market in the past five years.
There are no price limit rules, no circuit breakers, no daily debt-free settlement, no position limits...
then.
When the Great Crash occurred on October 19, 1987, disaster struck.
In Simon's memory, on October 19, the S&P 500 index jumped directly from 281 points at the previous Friday's closing to below 200 points.
An 80-point drop.
what does that mean.
Still calculated based on 10,000 contracts.
If someone mistakenly established 10,000 long contracts at 281 points on October 16, the total margin would be approximately US$140 million. On October 19th, his loss per contract will be US$500 times 80 points, which is US$40,000.
There are 10,000 long contracts, each contract loses US$40,000, and the overall loss will reach US$400 million. Relative to the margin of US$140 million, the loss ratio is close to 300%.
Actually.
During the 1987 stock market crash, there was indeed such an unlucky guy who mistakenly bet on a huge number of long contracts. That person's name was George Soros. Because of this, the later financial giant lost a huge US$800 million.
The final result was that the Quantum Fund, whose net asset value had just exceeded US$3 billion that year, shrank by more than a quarter in just a few days.
Now.
In an apartment in Century Tower.
Simon looked at the S&P 500 index that had been rising until the end of August on the desk in his study, and his fingertips felt slightly numb because of the plans that were about to be implemented in the next few months.
In the curve in front of you.
From 270 points in early May to 330 points in late August. The overall 60-point rise was no less volatile than a stock market crash. With a 60-point increase, each long contract can make a profit of $30,000. The profit margin is enough to exceed 200%.
Shocking September.
Avoid.
October 19th.
From 281 points to 200 points, a drop of 80 points, a real stock market crash.
Soros has a famous reflexivity theory. Simply put, there are unpredictable interactions between market participants and the market all the time.
Simon naturally considered that the addition of his 'butterfly' would change the original market trend.
but.
Counting all the expected chips, he now only has more than 100 million US dollars.
If you really lose, then you lose.
Just starting over.
but.
If you win.
On his journey to the top of the pyramid, Simon will climb too many steps at once.