London
Since the beginning of the European arms race, the British government has expressed its close attention, and they are well aware of the movements of various countries.
Foreign Minister Palmerston said incessantly: "According to the information we have collected, the Austrian government's military expansion this time should be aimed at the Ottoman Empire, and our plan to bring disaster to the east has been successful.
It's just that a little change has happened now, and the Austrian government may have compromised with the Russians. If you want to provoke a conflict between Russia and Austria, it is impossible to do it in a short time.
However, if there are too many conflicts of interest, even the best relationship will be shattered. From the moment Austria set foot on the Balkans, the disintegration of the Russian-Austrian alliance was doomed…”
Prime Minister John Russell frowned and questioned: "Mr Palmerston, I believe in the judgment that the Russian-Austrian alliance will collapse sooner or later. But this time may be three or five years later, but it can never be now. .
Before their common enemy, the Ottoman Empire, fell, Russia and Austria could still cooperate closely.
The seeds of hatred were planted hundreds of years ago, and neither the Russians nor the Austrians wanted to let the Ottoman Empire fall.
In addition to hatred, there are more tempting interests. The Russians took a fancy to the Black Sea Strait, and the Austrians took a fancy to the Danube Valley.
The Ottoman Empire was too weak to be targeted by two robbers. But we can't let them fall now.
It doesn't matter if the Austrians are plotting the Danube Valley, but once the Black Sea Strait falls into the hands of the Russians, we will lose a lot.
I do not think that a single Constantinople will satisfy the appetite of the tsarist government. The desire that they have held back for so many years is absolutely earth-shattering to be released now.
Once the Ottoman Empire fell, the Austrians would annex up to half the Balkans, while the Russians would occupy the land along the Black Sea Strait.
At that time, not only our interests in the Ottoman Empire will not be guaranteed, but even our interests in the Mediterranean Sea will be greatly affected, and even South Africa and India will be threatened by the Russians. "
That's the crux of the matter, the British needed the Ottoman Empire to keep the Russians out. No one wants to be neighbors with the Russians, and John Bull is no exception.
Let the Russians devour the Ottoman Empire and master this central location across Asia, Europe and Africa, and the situation will be completely out of control.
Palmerston explained with a gloomy face: "Your Excellency, the situation is not so bad. No European country wants to see the Russians bigger, and this is the opportunity.
Whether Austria and the Russians have reached an agreement or not, and where the bottom line of the two sides is, is still unknown.
But one thing is certain, the Austrians also do not want the Russians to be bigger. As old neighbors, the Russians' threat estimates are more accurate in their perceptions.
Therefore, in this war that is about to break out, most of them will just take advantage of it, and then sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight. It is not good for them to kill the Ottoman Empire with one stick.
The strength of the Ottoman Empire is not weak. As long as they can distinguish the priority of the enemy and focus on defending against Russian attacks, they should be able to persist for a long time with our support.
During this period, we can join forces with European countries such as France, Prussia and Spain to intervene in this war. "
This explanation is unsatisfactory, given the situation at hand, the previous foreign policy of the London government has failed.
There is nothing wrong with leading Austria to the Balkans, the problem is that the unreasonable bear is going to break the game violently
Looking at the timing of the preparations for the Russian war, it is clear to everyone that this war is definitely not a petty mess. Coupled with an Austria that wants to pick up cheap, if there is no external intervention, the chances of the Ottoman Empire being able to resist the past this time are infinitely small.
The British have long known that the Russo-Turkish war is about to break out, not only they know, but all European countries are prepared for this.
There have been many friendly matches between the Russians and the Ottomans, and everyone has figured out the rules. Basically, as a generation grows up, the two sides will have a match.
This kind of friendly match is not every time the whole country is in a decisive battle. In many cases, it is a local war. It can be started with any excuse, and the war is stopped when the fighting is almost done.
This can be seen from the preparation time. Generally speaking, the more fully prepared, the more intense the war will be.
Since the second half of 1849, the Russians have been preparing, and there is no sign of launching the war. The scale of this war can already be imagined.
In this context, the introduction of Austria into the Balkans naturally exacerbated the confusion. If Russia and Austria fight against each other, but if Russia and Austria join forces, God cannot save the Ottoman Empire.
Palmerston naturally had a headache. If he knew that this situation would occur, he would not bother to care about the Kingdom of Sardinia, leaving Austria in the quagmire of Italy and unable to extricate itself.
Then the current situation will be much better. Austria, which has no energy to expand abroad, is definitely the vanguard against the expansion of the Russians.
This is an inevitable result, and if the benefits cannot be obtained, Franz will also oppose the continued expansion of Russian power.
Not because of jealousy, but because of national strategic needs. Everyone understands that the fact that the Russians are stronger naturally means that Austria is relatively declining.
John Russell thought for a while and said, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can start action now. If Russia and Austria join forces against the Ottoman Empire, they won't be able to last long."
At this time, the British were not ready to go into battle shirtless. As for their pocket version of the army, it will not be long before they are devoured by the war.
The key is that the gold medalist French has not returned to his place, and now Napoleon III has not been restored, and the parliament and the president are still fighting.
The French government, with its serious infighting, has no weight internationally. The promises made by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs are extremely difficult to fulfill.
…
Paris
International change was a disaster for many, but for Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, it was an opportunity.
The British needed a stable French government to play a role in the ensuing Russo-Turkish war and suppress Russian ambitions.
At this time, besides supporting him, is there a better choice
Can't support the parliamentary faction? Their efficiency is not comparable to that of a dictator.
The restoration plan has already been born in the Napoleonic faction, and it is only a matter of time before it can be launched.
As for the issue of Austria's expansion of arms and preparations for war, like the British, Louis-Napoleon-Bonaparte also believed that Austria was heading for the Balkans.
In order to induce strategic misjudgments in various countries, the Austrian government is not just talking and practicing.
Sending spies to the Balkans to be caught by the Ottoman Empire is just a trick. The troop formation at the junction of Austria and the Ottoman Empire was only a routine operation.
Austrian public opinion also turned over the old accounts of the Ottoman Empire. The Balkan strategy formulated by the military is discussed every now and then.
If you don't know that Austria is ready to take revenge on the Ottomans, it must not be Austrian.
There are also various strategic materials that are constantly being transported to Transylvania for storage. It seems that there is only one excuse for Austria to send troops to the Danube River Basin.
To deceive others first to deceive yourself, Franz still understands this principle. If everyone believes in it, is he afraid that the enemy will not believe it
In addition to the members of the Austrian cabinet, only a few high-level military generals knew the real purpose of the government. Most Austrians believed that the government was going to go to war with the Ottoman Empire.
A lot of official media, backed up their analysis, the Russo-Turkish war is about to break out, and Austria can just pick up the bargain, and they can occupy the Danube Valley without paying too much.
After this series of actions, Britain and France naturally believed that Austria was going to attack the Balkans.
The westward plan was completely covered up. The only action is probably that the speed of domestic railway construction has suddenly accelerated.
Even the railway built under the auspices of Bavaria has many enthusiastic people in the society to provide them with convenience.
Many people are still urging the Royal Bavarian Railway to speed up, not to delay them making money.
Austria's strategic deception plan not only deceived Britain and France, but also confused the Prussians. When it was determined that Austria's target was the Balkans, Frederick-Wilhelm IV had nothing to do except show envy and hatred.
There was no way, Russia and Austria attacked the Ottoman Empire, no matter how much they envied them, they couldn't run over to get a piece of the pie.
Geopolitics determined the interests of the Ottoman Empire and had nothing to do with the Kingdom of Prussia. That being the case, the Austrians can go with them if they want to expand their army. Anyway, without their own interests, there is no need for the Kingdom of Prussia to follow up.
Not only were a few great powers fooled, even the Swiss who had been worried for a long time breathed a sigh of relief and determined that the Austrians were not going for them, and that the lives of the Ottomans were none of their business.
Under the publicity of the media, it is well known that Russia and Austria are preparing to find the Ottoman Empire's bad luck.
It's none of your business, hang up high. European people have turned into melon eaters one after another, just waiting for the good show to start.