"The whole of Tasmania is 15 million acres of land. It's no wonder that the Australian government is willing to sell it to you. Ted Turner only owns a 2 million-acre farm," Elizabeth said, hearing Julia shout The two had dinner, so they sorted out the scattered materials in front of them, walked to the restaurant with Eric, and changed the subject by the way: "How much box office do you think you can get this time?"
Eric said: "It still depends on the market reaction, but it shouldn't be a problem to exceed 100 million in the first week."
Listening to Eric's conservative tone, Elizabeth asked doubtfully, "Is it the problem if it doesn't exceed 100 million in the first week? It's so hot now."
Eric walked into the kitchen, washed his hands and helped Julia divide the dinner, and said to Elizabeth beside him, "Didn't you read the information? Although the 3D ticket price has increased by 50%, in order to ensure the visual effect , our 3D screening halls are basically medium screening halls with about 100 seats. There is no hall with two to three hundred seats at all. Calculated, the single-day box office limit of 2,000 3D screens is only about 25 million US dollars The single-day box office limit of the other 100 imax screening halls is 3.64 million US dollars. Therefore, the highest single-day box office of this film is only more than 28 million US dollars, and it must take a long time."
"I remember that there were more than 35 million US dollars on the first day?" Elizabeth walked into the restaurant with her dinner and sat down, and said: "If you don't plan to increase the number of 3D screens during the release process, according to the normal film decline, the box office performance It will definitely not catch up, and it will be even more difficult to get a box office of US$1 billion worldwide."
Julia walked into the restaurant at this time, sat down next to Eric, and heard Elizabeth's retort: "Eric's movie will definitely get 1 billion."
Although she is used to Julia always leaning towards Eric, and seeing her sitting next to the man opposite him like a little wife, Elizabeth still eats it habitually: "You have so much confidence in him. Shall we make a bet?"
"I don't want to bet with you," Julia deliberately took a sip of Eric's juice, glanced triumphantly at Elizabeth across the way, and said, "You lost the bet to me and Eric on the Internet last time." The promise hasn’t been fulfilled yet.”
"Who would bet on someone else's behalf without the parties knowing it?" Elizabeth rolled her eyes, ignored Julia, turned to Eric, and said, "Speaking of which, this year's Sundance Film Festival is very exciting." It’s exciting. There are still two months left, and it is said that the number of films registered for the competition has doubled compared to last year, and many stars will also go to Park City this year.”
Eric nodded and said, "One more movie trading market is booming, which is definitely good for Hollywood. However, it will be very difficult for a second movie to appear in the next ten years."
From the beginning of the year to the present, it has basically been screened in major ticket warehouses around the world, and the global box office has finally reached 255 million US dollars. Compared with the production cost of 60,000 US dollars, the terrifying return on investment is simply crazy.
Therefore, there are still more than two months before the Sundance Film Festival in January next year, and almost all film companies in Hollywood have begun to gear up, trying to find a similar gold mine again.
However, China's success is fundamentally a marketing victory, and the almost deceptive viral marketing is difficult to replicate in the short term. Although it will also strengthen the emphasis on the Sundance Film Festival, Eric will definitely not have too much expectation for it. The focus of Firefly Group's business will always be upright commercial films.
Time always flies, and in a blink of an eye, it was already November 12, and the world premiere was officially held at the imax theater in Santa Monica, Los Angeles.
In recent days, after the frenzy of word-of-mouth caused by screenings last week initially subsided, many media have gradually discovered the issues that Eric and Elizabeth talked about on Tuesday night.
Although the popularity of the movie is doomed to the success of this film, due to the limitations of 3D and imax screenings, unless Firefly Group urgently adds more 3D screening halls, it is not easy for this film to achieve a global box office of 1 billion US dollars. easy thing.
However, in many media interviews with Firefly Group executives, it was revealed that Firefly Group did not consider adding 3D and IMAX auditoriums in the short term. As a result, many media have become enthusiastic about the forecasted box office prospects.
In the summer season, the single-day box office during the peak period of the first week was 37.35 million US dollars. Although it broke the Hollywood single-day box office record, the overall attendance rate has just exceeded 70%. This is already a miraculous figure. .
Here we have to mention the concept of attendance.
In the intuitive impression of many people, the attendance rate must be the approximate number of people sitting in a screening hall, but it is not the case. The movie attendance rate is calculated according to the ratio between the total number of viewers and the total number of seats in the screening hall throughout the day.
For example, in a screening hall with 100 seats, assuming that there are only two shows in the morning and evening, and the number of people watching the early show at 9 o'clock in the morning is only 10, and the number of people watching the golden show at 9 o'clock in the evening reaches 90, then the screening hall The single-day attendance rate is 50%.
The single-day attendance rate of a film is the overall average of its attendance rate in all screening halls.
Under normal circumstances, even for very popular movies, it is often hard to get a ticket for the prime night shows, but due to movie viewing habits, working days and other factors, it is basically difficult to fill up the daytime shows, and even relatively deserted.
Therefore, for the film, since its single-day box office limit is only 28 million U.S. dollars, even if the attendance rate is 10% higher than the single-day peak, the film’s first week box office is only about 100 million U.S. dollars.
The starting point of the first week is 100 million US dollars. According to word of mouth, according to the 30% box office drop curve in a single week, the total North American box office of the film will only stay within 300 million US dollars.
The scale of the planned overseas release is comparable to that in North America. Then, the global box office of Eric Williams' new film is likely to be only 600 million US dollars.
Although the production cost of the film has just exceeded 100 million yuan, the total cost has approached 200 million yuan after including the cost of conversion, copying and publicity in the later stage. The global box office of 600 million US dollars has just allowed Firefly Group to recoup the cost.
With more and more similar views, the North American media who want to win attention and win circulation naturally turned their attention to this aspect when the word-of-mouth has been completely unquestionable, and began to question the Firefly Group'4200' again. feasibility of the plan.
After all, if even Eric Williams' films can only barely pay for themselves, what about everyone else
It is generally estimated that the Firefly Group has invested nearly 2 billion US dollars in the '4200' plan. According to the current situation, it is extremely difficult for the Firefly Group to recover this part of the investment.
Although many of these arguments are suspected of stealing concepts, there is no doubt that these views are very popular among the media and the public, and many people have even started to watch the jokes of the Firefly Group.
In such an atmosphere of praise for the film's reputation on the one hand and doubts on the commercial prospects on the other, the world premiere of the film was successfully held under the eyes of the public without any influence. More than 400 guests at the scene almost concentrated the essence of Hollywood . Many movie fans even traveled thousands of miles from various states around Los Angeles just to watch the premiere red carpet ceremony.
The imax premiere of the film and the imax movie screenings across North America in the following weekend two days once again detonated the media and the public's admiration for the film's visual effects, but at the same time, doubts became more and more serious.
After all, the cost of all aspects of imax movies is too high. Whether it is projection equipment or film copies, the cost is almost 10 times that of traditional movies, but the ticket price is only twice that of ordinary movies. Although the number of seats in the imax auditorium is larger, this advantage is obviously not obvious in comparison in all aspects.
Amidst such praise, doubts, expectations, and debates, on December 19, it was officially screened in 2,000 3D theaters and 100 IMAX theaters in North America.
However, in the early morning of December 19, with the release of the box office of the midnight show, the media in North America once again boiled over.
This is not because the box office of the midnight show is too high, but because it is too low.
$3.57 million.
This is the midnight box office.
Not to mention that compared with the record-breaking US$16.5 million, even if Eric starred in the previous summer film, the box office of the midnight show of US$7.6 million is more than double.
Firefly Studios.
The terrace of the small restaurant on the big ship, Eric has just recently added two sets of seats to this terrace with an excellent view.
At this time, Jodie Foster was not interested in admiring the surrounding scenery condescendingly. She glanced at Eric who was flipping through the manuscript with a calm expression on the opposite side. The woman waited for a while before finally saying: "You don't seem to be worried at all. ?”
Eric turned the page of the manuscript in his hand, which was Judy's novel of the same name. Eric had already read the first draft last year, but Judy has been revising it repeatedly for more than a year, and the current version is obviously different from the original one.
In order to cooperate with the subsequent stage of publicity, the novel will be officially released in multiple countries around the world by Harper Collins Publishing House, a subsidiary of News Corporation, next month.
This topic was mentioned at the premiere last week, and the two made an appointment to chat about novels this Saturday.
Hearing Judy's words, Eric looked up at the woman and said with a smile: "Schwarzenegger's first day is only 3.96 million US dollars, what should I worry about?"
Two days before the release, that is, on November 17, Universal Pictures' action blockbuster starring Arnold Schwarzenegger chose to release it on Wednesday in order to avoid the edge.
This big-budget movie, which Eric had no memory of at all, failed miserably at the box office almost without any suspense, with the box office of only $3.96 million on the first day. So far, the three-day box office has just reached 11.53 million U.S. dollars. Although the box office will rise in the two days of the weekend, the total box office of this $100 million production will probably be the same as the two days before the opening and the first weekend. Just over $20 million.
Judy was very dissatisfied with Eric's indifferent appearance, and teased with her beautiful eyes slightly: "Have you degenerated to the point of comparing with Schwarzenegger?"
"It depends on what it is," Eric smiled, knowing that the woman was worried about himself, and said with a slightly more serious tone, "Actually, this is how the media behaves. Fall hard, even if this person is actually Iron Man, he is not afraid of falling at all."
Listening to Eric's confident tone, Judy leaned forward slightly, resting her cheek on the table with one hand, and said, "However, $3.57 million seems a little too little."
Eric looked at Judy, who was unknowingly a little more feminine, and said: "This is mainly because you have the same inertial thinking as most people, and you don't realize that it is completely different from traditional 2D movies. Screening mode. Now, do you know the attendance rate of this movie at midnight last night?"
Judy shook her head, with a curious look in her eyes.
While flipping through the manuscript in his hand, Eric continued: "The attendance rate of the 2,000 3D screening halls exceeds 95%. The other 100 IMAX screening halls are completely full. In order to ensure the visual effect of 3D viewing, we selected They are all relatively small screening halls. Due to the limitation of the total number of seats, although the ticket price has increased, the box office of the film’s midnight screening will still be relatively low.”
Speaking of which, Eric happened to remember that Cameron once created a box office miracle for the second time, and the midnight box office happened to be only 3.5 million US dollars. This has to be said to be a very interesting coincidence.
Moreover, after careful calculation, due to the ticket price factor spanning ten years and the difference in the size of the show, the attendance rate of the midnight show last night should be higher than that.
However, the word of mouth belongs to the cold early stage and the late stage explosion, just like the same god trend. However, the word-of-mouth has already exploded from the preview stage. After the explosion of popularity in the first week greatly squeezed the box office potential, the film's follow-up box office curve is likely to show a normal decline in commercial films.
But on the other hand, there are only 2,100 screening theaters in total. Compared with the strong demand for 3D and imax movies that the audience has just started to contact, it may have some hunger marketing effects.
Combining all kinds of relatively contradictory and mutually influencing factors, Eric himself does not know what direction the box office will develop in the end.
Judy listened carefully to Eric's explanation, and if she realized something, she then said, "Then why don't you increase the number of 3D screens as soon as possible. According to the current situation, this should be a very simple matter, right?"
"Because there are not enough film sources, between now and next summer, the Firefly system has only arranged, ,, and five 3d-imax movies from imax, and to be precise, it can only be regarded as half of them. So , 2,000 screens, according to the frequency of one release per month, it can be scheduled until next summer," Eric explained, admiring the beautiful blue eyes of the woman opposite, and said: "Hey, let's not talk about this. A few days ago, I suddenly remembered something, do you still remember the Oscars last year, I seem to still owe you a bet?"