After becoming a shareholder of Firefly Pictures, both Warren Buffett and David West began to pay attention to the Hollywood film market.
After Eric finished speaking, the three of them realized that this year, whether it was the successful films such as "The Mummy" and "Saving Private Ryan" in Hollywood, or the failed "Beverly Hills Cop 3" or "Law Enforcement Titans", ", the hairstyle strategies adopted are all the comprehensive distribution that Eric said, so they also recognized the conclusion in the first article.
None of the three were too impatient to ask Eric why he said this, but quietly followed Eric's movements and turned to the next page of information.
"First of all, I want to make a statement," Eric said after flipping through another page of the document: "My plan is to close Disney's hand-drawn animation department, but I never said that I would stop Disney's animation production. Animation studios are shifting from traditional hand-drawn animation to more advanced digital animation.”
Of course the three of Buffett knew this, and they all smiled and nodded in agreement. They also knew why Eric said that. Now the rumors about Eric's move have been exaggerated to the point that Eric wants to replace the Disney brand with Firefly. to the point.
Eric smiled and said: "Then, the following information is a comparison of the four animated films released by Disney between 1991 and 1994, "Beauty and the Beast", "Aladdin", "Toy Story" and " A Bug's Life". These four films represent typical 2D animation and 3D animation respectively. Overall, we can see that the total box office of "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" is slightly more than the two 3D animations, but From the analysis of the box office curve, it is not difficult to find that "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" are very standard long-term screening models. The eight-week box office of the two films accounted for only 57% and 53% of the total box office respectively. The corresponding figures for "Toy Story" and "A Bug's Life" are 89% and 88%, which is typical of the general release model. At the same time, we can see that the release of "Toy Story" and "A Bug's Life" The number of screens dropped rapidly to below 1,000 at 13 weeks and 12 weeks respectively. The screens were given up to other films. However, "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" maintained 1,000 screens for as long as 25 weeks and 12 weeks respectively. In the 21st week, I believe that in the next few years, when full distribution completely dominates the mainstream of the market, in order for theater operators to obtain more box office, it is absolutely impossible to allow this situation of occupying a large number of screens for a long time to continue.”
Tom Murphy asked: "Eric, this doesn't seem to be enough to prove that 2D animation is about to be eliminated. We can make 2D animation also use the full release model. "The Lion King" seems to be like this."
Both David West and Warren Buffett nodded indistinctly.
Eric seemed to have expected them to ask this question, and said with an unchanged smile: "So. Let's move on to the next file."
The three of Buffett looked at each other and turned to the next page again.
"The next thing I want to explain is why 2D animation cannot adopt a full-scale distribution model." Eric glanced at Tom Murphy and said, "We have just reached a tacit agreement that "The Lion King" is just an event movie. From the box office trends of animated films such as "The Little Mermaid", "Roger Rabbit", "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin", we have not found any expansion of the 2D animation market, so I hope everyone can temporarily ignore "Lion King, can you?"
Tom Murphy nodded awkwardly, and Warren Buffett and David West had already looked at the documents in their hands.
Eric went on to say: "In front of you is a single-week box office comparison table of four animated films. We can find that the single-week box office fluctuations of the two 2D films are very unstable, and even after eight weeks, there will be sudden fluctuations. The state of ups and downs, sometimes the box office has dropped to more than 5 million US dollars, but suddenly rose to more than 8 million the next week, and the other two films have a stable decline in the box office curve similar to the city people. Why do they appear In this case, the answer is on the next page.”
After the four of them turned the page at the same time, Eric looked up at the three of them. He smiled and said, "Did the astonishing long bar in the first columnar scale diagram attract your attention?"
After Eric's reminder, even if they didn't notice it at first, the three of Buffett also saw the abrupt long bar in the first columnar scale chart.
"The bar chart in front of me lists the proportions of moviegoers of different age groups for 2D animation movies and 3D animation movies, in order to show the results more intuitively. I divided the age of moviegoers into (0-13 years old), ( 14-18 years old), (19-28 years old) and (>28 years old) these four intervals, these data come from Disney’s previous market research reports, the accuracy is beyond doubt.”
Eric briefly explained, and said: "We can clearly see that in 2D animation movies, the young moviegoers aged 0-13 account for an astonishing 41% of the total audience. And the same data for 3D animation movies , this proportion is only 26%. However, this does not mean that the number of children who like 3D animation has decreased, but because the number of audiences over 13 has increased significantly. There is a strong contrast between the proportion of moviegoers and the range of 0-13, which are 17% and 29% respectively. The contrast is also obvious for the age range of 19-28, which are 7% and 16% respectively. I believe that this age The 7% of the 2D animation audience in the interval must have a large part to take their children with them, and I believe that the audience over the age of 28 watching 2D animation is basically to meet the children’s viewing needs.”
After briefly summarizing the data, Eric stopped looking at the document and looked up: "Disney has always had the practice of re-released 2D hand-painted animation films before every seven years. The audience is the main viewing group, and every seven years, a new group of children audiences appear. Through these detailed statistics, it is not difficult to find out why the box office curve of 2D animation movies is very unstable and why they can only be shown in the long-term model."
"Because the audience of 2D animation movies is very young, this part of the children audience has no ability to act independently and must be led by their parents to watch the movie. Even during the summer vacation, adults still need to work, and they often can only through Children can only be taken to watch 2D cartoons on weekends or some special holidays. In order to cope with the very uncertain schedule of parents, film companies must adopt the long-term screening mode that will be eliminated in order to fully tap the box office potential of 2D animation.”
"3D animation movies are different. This brand-new animation movie model is not only loved by young children, but also recognized by teenagers who have formed their own purchasing power and some adult audiences. In the statistics of the proportion of moviegoers just now, 3D animation The proportion of children's audience of the film is only 26%, while the total audience proportion of the main movie consumer groups aged 14-28 reaches 45%. This proportion is almost the same as that of live-action movie audiences, which is why 3D animation movies can be adopted in a comprehensive manner like live-action movies. issued market strategy."
After Eric finished speaking, the three of Buffett fell into brief contemplation, and Eric did not disturb the three of them. He raised his hand and looked at his watch. Fifteen minutes were about to pass before he knew it. He didn't want the restaurant waiters to rush in, so he turned his head and whispered a few words into Kelly Haines' ear.
Although Kelly Hines was somewhat reluctant to give up Eric's high-spirited speech, she still obediently stood up and walked out. When she walked to the door, Kelly Hines realized that just now Eric was almost close to her ear, and maybe he could kiss her cheek a little further, but she didn't have the slightest resistance Feeling emotional, at this time, I felt that the earlobe that was brushed by Eric's breath became inexplicably hot.
He heard a slight slam of the door behind him. Eric looked at the three people who came back to their senses, and said with a smile: "So, shall we continue?"
Buffett and the three nodded. Although they still had a lot of questions in their minds, seeing more than half of the information in their hands, the three of them subconsciously felt that the young man in front of him must have considered any question they might ask. one question.
Tom Murphy and David West were almost persuaded by Eric in their hearts at this time, and Buffett looked at Eric with deep approval and enthusiasm. He is 65 years old this year, although he is still Full of energy. But the issue of death has begun to trouble him and other partners in the company. Many partners of Berkshire Hathaway have asked him more than once about the next heir to the company, and several of Buffett’s children obviously did not take the position. competencies for this job.
Although Buffett believes that he can work for at least ten years, he once joked that even after his death, he will appear to manage Berkshire Hathaway. But anyone, including himself, is very clear that once he dies, Berkshire Hathaway will definitely usher in unknowable great changes.
Buffett also tried to cultivate an heir more than once, but several efforts ended in failure. And now this young man who can calmly see the development trend of an industry when the box office of "The Lion King" is so hot, and chooses long-term plans instead of greedy for short-term interests. His keen insight and firm execution have always been the most important prerequisites for his ideal heir.
only…
Buffett soon felt strong regrets in his heart. Eric's current wealth and status also means that he is unlikely to be the next leader of Berkshire Hathaway, because Buffett prefers that his heir He can focus on the operation of Berkshire Hathaway without being distracted by others, but the industry in Eric's hands is already much larger than that of Berkshire Hathaway, and he will be Berkshire Hathaway Sa Wei handed it over to him, and it was difficult for Eric to allocate too much energy to manage this equally large company.
Although it is regrettable to confirm this, Buffett is still a little unwilling.
Eric didn't know what Buffett was thinking. Seeing that the three had no objection, he said, "So, after talking about the external factors that affect 2D animation, the next step is the internal reasons. I think everyone must be aware of the cost difference between the two films. Yes, the cost of the two 2D animation movies listed here is less than 30 million, while the cost of "Toy Story" and "A Bug's Life" are 50 million US dollars and 80 million US dollars respectively."
Having said that, Eric paused for a moment and said: "First of all, I want to explain a problem, whether it is 2D or 3D animation, the main cost is the cost of human resources, and each frame of the two animation films is artificial It is drawn, but the drawing carrier is different. Because hand-drawn animation has been developed for more than half a century, the entire industry is very mature, and there are also a large number of animators. Therefore, even the best hand-drawn animation in the world by Disney Animation Studios There are very few teachers whose annual salary exceeds 100,000 US dollars. However, digital animators are a newly emerging profession, and there is a shortage of talents. Therefore, after the success of "Toy Story", in order to prevent Pixar's skilled digital animators from being poached by other film companies Come on, Fireflies have to raise their salaries. Similarly, after "The Lion King", if Disney continues to maintain the hand-drawn animation department, the average annual salary of these animators may exceed 10,000 in the future. dollars, that is, the production cost of 2D animation will double... ”
When Tom Murphy heard this, he suddenly interrupted Eric with a smile, and said, "Eric, you just said that "The Lion King" is an event movie?"
"Of course, but just because I think so, doesn't mean that the whole of Hollywood thinks so. Don't they all think that the golden age of 2D animation has arrived?" Eric knew that Tom Murphy was just joking, so he explained and continued Said: "The production cost of "The Lion King" has already exceeded 45 million U.S. dollars. If it is doubled, the cost of 2D hand-drawn animation in the future may exceed 100 million U.S. dollars."
Eric clearly remembers that in the original time and space in 1999, when he accidentally saw the latest 2D hand-painted animation "Tarzan of the Apes" of the Disney promotion company through the Internet, he played the banner of the highest-cost animation film in history, and "Tarzan of the Apes" was promoted to the outside world. "The production cost has reached 150 million U.S. dollars, and the subsequent North American box office of this film is only 170 million. According to Eric's accumulated experience, the cost plus the huge distribution cost, this live-action animation even calculates the follow-up Peripheral profits, Disney is also very likely to lose money.
"Then, if in the next few years, theater operators are no longer willing to waste screen resources and continue to implement long-term distribution for 2D animation films, the cost of up to 100 million U.S. dollars and the average publicity investment that may rise to 50 million U.S. dollars, we can almost be sure, Unless event films like "The Lion King" continue to appear, it will be difficult for the company to recover the cost of the film through the box office. Then, you will definitely say that the peripheral income of animated films has always been very rich, so let's continue to look at the next stats…”
The three of Buffett were inexplicably poked at the point of laughter by Eric's last sentence, and continued to turn the page with a smile. At the same time, Kelly Hines, who had just left, returned to Eric's side without a sound. . (To be continued.)