"Everyone has obtained the information on the international aluminum futures. Now let's analyze the trend of aluminum prices in the past two years."
The young man standing at the big conference table took out a roll of paper and pinned it to the pVc display board beside him.
"There are generally only two elements that dominate the futures prices of international metals and other raw materials: supply and demand. This line is the change chart of international aluminum prices from 1991 to 1993, and we can clearly see a steep downward line. From the high point at the end of 1991, it slid down to the lowest point of 1o37 US dollars / ton at the end of 1993."
"What caused the aluminum price to plummet? What major events happened in the world in 1991, everyone here should be very clear, on December 25, 1991, the former Soviet Union disintegrated. As a leading world power, any changes in the Soviet Union occurred. All of them will have a significant impact on the world economy. Specifically, in terms of aluminum prices, due to the disintegration of the country, Russia's demand for aluminum has been greatly reduced. At the same time, in exchange for foreign exchange, a large number of aluminum ingots have been dumped into the Western market disorderly, and the balance of supply and demand has been broken, and aluminum prices have responded. and fall."
Faced with a room full of middle-aged and elderly people aged 30-50, the young man did not have any fear on his face, but rather confidently took a pointer and took pictures of the drawings, "But the plummeting aluminum price is also a disaster for Russia itself. Any seller would want their product to drop in price. Hence the second table…”
With that said, he tore off the top sheet of paper with a swipe, revealing the bar chart below.
"This is the statistics of world aluminum production from 1992 to 1993. We can clearly see the signs of production reduction. According to the Brussels consultation meeting, Russia and several other major aluminum companies in the world have reached an agreement to jointly reduce production by 1oo within two years. 10,000 tons, prompting a recovery in aluminum prices. Of course, it must be stated in advance that this 'world's largest' does not include China."
"So in 1994, the price of aluminum started to rebound."
With this sentence, the chart turned to the next page, and a standard upward line appeared in front of everyone.
"The production reduction is effective. With the production reduction, the aluminum price is gradually rising steadily. According to the usual law, it will be stable at around US$15oo per ton, and it will start to fluctuate up and down, but this time the aluminum price did not follow these rules. , but suddenly soared, jumping to 2ooo US dollars / ton in one breath, even the production reduction should not stimulate the aluminum price to climb so much, what affects the price change..."
Originally I wanted to buy another pass, but a middle-aged man with glasses next to him had already interjected, "This year, the demand for aluminum ingots in my country has increased greatly. After importing more than 10 million tons, the price of aluminum in Shanghai has doubled because of Is this?"
The slightly showy introduction was interrupted, and the young man looked at everyone present in embarrassment, "Indeed, there is only one reason for the price of aluminum soaring to the highest historical record. China is short of aluminum..."
This sentence made everyone in the room quiet, the man with glasses pondered for a moment, then turned to look at the people around him, "Xiao Chen, is this the economic aggregate problem you are talking about?"
Chen Yuanming nodded, "Yes, Sun Chu, this is the problem China is facing. It was for this reason that I operated on the aluminum period last year. The soaring of Shanghai aluminum is too amazing. The demand for metals has passed the warning value, and the world is reducing production due to the agreement, and the price of aluminum will inevitably rise. Last year, I entered the market at around 14oo, and only exited when it was above 19oo. In half a year, there is only one aluminum period. It made me gain a lot. In other words, if it was China who entered the market at that time - not me - and got enough orders, then we could make up for the loss caused by imports through futures, and even control the market price point.”
"Like what you said about the Sumitomo Group's manipulation of copper prices?"
"This is the so-called pricing power. Owning the absolute amount of products, or determining the number of futures contracts in the market, is crucial for China's future development. The aluminum futures are just a small test. Low-priced metals become steel, gold, and oil, and what will happen to the futures market?"
Most of the people in the room didn't answer this, only the young man who was still standing at the table smiled slightly, "It's like an elephant running into a shallow pool, the water level will soar."
Very funny sentence, but too many people can't laugh. Chen Yuanming shook his head gently, "Xiao Tang, thank you for your explanation, I'll talk about other questions later."
When the young man heard Chen Yuanming's words, he simply nodded and sat down beside the pVc board. This is the assistant Chen Yuanming has recently found, Tang Hao, who has just graduated from the New York University Business School. He has a very dazzling degree and a high talent. He has enough insight and observation on the futures market. The problem is that the style is too Western, and it is inevitably a bit exaggerated in the Chinese political circle. There were more than one or two frowns in the conference room just now.
It's a talent, but it still needs to be polished, so it's better to put it around. For this shortcoming, Chen Yuanming can still bear it, at least he can fully understand what he said, and organize the corresponding materials, which is a big help.
As if digesting what he had just heard, Sun Guoqiang pondered for a moment before answering, "That's why you think aluminum prices will fall this year? Because of China's production?"
"Not only China's, but also the world." Chen Yuanming's voice was a little more certain, "Reduction in production is not a good thing for any business, especially when the behemoth China enters the market and becomes a buyer. By this year, it is estimated that the Some aluminum plants are about to restart to catch up with this trend. But at the same time, China itself will not let go of aluminum production, right? Importing means spending money, and too much import will greatly curb the country's development. I estimate that many domestic aluminum plants will also start production at full capacity this year, and with these two synergies, how can aluminum prices not fall."
"Will it fall very fast?" Sun Guoqiang asked.
"It should have been in the beginning. The current futures prices have already deviated from the actual value, so as soon as production starts to increase, it will fall immediately. But China cannot stop production in one go, and there are as many international financial institutions that are manipulating aluminum futures. The number of contracts, so after a period of decline, the price of aluminum will rebound. If we choose to go short, we are running out of time.”
No one came to ask how long the rebound period would be, and most people began to read the documents they had on hand, and some whispered and exchanged opinions. The atmosphere at the venue was not warm, but from Sun Guoqiang's eyes, Chen Yuanming had already seen a positive look. Regardless of the tone of Tang Hao's explanation, the materials he prepared were detailed enough, and the pictures and words were enough to explain everything.
Once there is a consensus, it is down to the details. Of course, the meeting will not only be explained by consultants, but there will also be a lot of discussion on organizational structure and risk acetylene value. Now that the Chinese New Year is approaching, the heating in Beijing is at its peak, and the heating in this conference room is also quite good. After a while, Chen Yuanming felt that his eyelids were a little heavy, his concentration was greatly reduced, and he began to feel sleepy.
Fortunately, the meeting didn't last long, and after struggling to survive the remaining long period of time, Chen Yuanming shook hands with several leaders of the foundation to say goodbye, and took Tang Hao out of the door. Today is a cloudy day, the cold wind is howling, and the clouds are dense. It looks like a heavy snow is coming. When the cold wind blows, Chen Yuanming is shocked and finally wakes up a little.
Standing beside the car and rubbing his acupoints, he raised his head and said to Tang Hao, "Go back first and continue to sort out the information on the copper futures. Don't forget the changes in the US hedge funds. That's what really needs to be watched..."
"Okay, what about you, boss? Do you want to go back to Zhongguancun?" Tang Hao had no objection. Beijing's winter is too cold, and he can't wait to stay in a heated room all day long.
Chen Yuanming looked at the sky, "I still have a small appointment, see you at Zhongguancun tomorrow."
After driving away the assistant, Chen Yuanming stretched out his hand and rubbed his face. He let out a breath of white air. Just as he was about to open the car door, a voice came from behind him.
"Yuanming, then."
Chen Yuanming was stunned for a moment. Out of the corner of his eyes, he saw something flying towards him. The position was so good that he involuntarily reached out and took it in the palm of his hand.
Spreading his palms, Chen Yuanming looked intently. It was a PHS. The paint was the familiar sea blue, but the color was richer and more beautiful. The body was also smaller than the last time, similar to the palm of the hand, and the lower part was slightly concave, showing a beautiful arc. Linear. Chen Yuanming raised his head and looked at the person coming. "You dare to throw this thing, what if I don't catch it?"
"Our things are durable." Xiao Junyi replied with a smile, striding so fast that even the scarf around his neck fluttered in the wind, making him even more radiant. "This time it's a genuine second-generation machine, and it can really get through."
"Passed?" Chen Yuanming was stunned for a moment, then came to understand, "Beijing's PHS service is open?"
"Naturally, after pinching with the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications for a long time, I finally let go. This is your number, and the one below is mine, don't forget."
A small card was shoved over, with only two strings of numbers written on it, Chen Yuanming smiled, "These two numbers seem to be quite advanced..."
"That's it, special number selection." With a grin, Xiao Junyi opened the car door and made a gesture of invitation to Chen Yuanming, "I'm going to see the consultant at Anxin today? I just happened to be going to inquire about the news, By the way?"
Chen Yuanming smiled, but did not refuse, and simply got into the car.
It's winter now, the car is fully heated, and the windows are closed tightly. Even the Grand Cherokee that I am familiar with feels a little stuffy. Chen Yuanming sat on the back of the sand, lowered his eyes, and played with the PHS in his hand, "Now that the business has developed, we can't ignore the version upgrade, as well as the real mobile phone research, how is the progress?"
Xiao Junyi has long been accustomed to Chen Yuanming's habit of not forgetting his business affairs, and leaned back in his chair leisurely, "It's still in full swing, I don't know how many parts have been dismantled, mainly because there are some difficulties in the integrated chip. It is said that he is trying to analyze it. ."
"You can't just analyze the existing content. The key is to use it closely. For example, how to build the phone book into the mobile phone, how to display the name of the caller, even if you attach an alarm clock and a calculator, it is good..."
He pressed his finger on the PHS for a long time, but he couldn't find a familiar operation. Chen Yuanming stopped the action with a wry smile. What was he thinking, this is not the kind of mobile phone with complex functions in the future...
"Simply put, this thing is so big, and the effort required to add any additional function is amazing. Now our manufacturing capacity is still very limited, not so fast. It's just the idea of using PHS information as you said. , the engineers in the factory are very interested. This is similar to the function of a pager, but how to automate it is a problem, and how to input Chinese characters to the mobile phone by yourself? You can't call the pager and ask them to do it for you. Bar… "
"Key input method... This needs to be communicated with the technical personnel in Chinese character encoding. It would be best if it can be outsourced. Now the Chinese character system at Founder of Peking University is very good. handwritten..."
"What?" The other party's voice was a little low, Xiao Junyi couldn't help but get closer and listen carefully, "How do you write..."
"Touch screen technology, typing with an electronic pen, just like writing on paper... I heard Jonathan say before that the United States had related research two years ago, but they were in the wrong direction, and English is still useful. Handwritten ah, Chinese should use this..."
"Someone has already started researching it?" Xiao Junyi became more interested. "What is the name of the company? Can we cooperate? If we can directly write Chinese characters, it will be much more convenient."
"go, the name is. Like... off... off... "
The sound became smaller and smaller, cut off by a small crash. The blue PHS slipped from his fingers and fell on the carpet beside his feet. Chen Yuanming's head was completely slumped on the back of the chair, and he slept unknowingly.
Looking at the scene in front of him, Xiao Junyi burst into laughter. It's only been a few minutes since he got in the car? I can fall asleep chatting all day long. I've been too busy lately... That's what I said, but what filled my heart was not pure helplessness, but a mixture of worry and a little heartache.
His eyes swept across the man's face involuntarily. After falling into a deep sleep, the strange solemnity on Chen Yuanming's face dissipated and faded. He no longer looked mature and prudent, but looked like a real young man. Except for the faint shadow in his eyes, he did not have the slightest imprint of time, with a trace of worry-free innocence.
The forehead was gently covered above the eyelids, the eyelashes trembled slightly, and the pair of black eyes that seemed to be covered were unwilling to rest in sleep. His mouth was slightly open stupidly, and occasionally a murmur floated out, but his shoulders were completely relaxed, and he leaned there loosely, as if trying to find some basis...
After being stunned for a moment, Xiao Junyi moved a few steps slightly, got close to him, bent down and picked up PHS that fell on the ground. But he didn't hand over the machine or wake up the sleeping person. He just put his shoulders close to him, so that the other party could use his strength to sleep more smoothly and comfortably...
Raising his wrist and looking at the time, Xiao Junyi whispered to the driver, "Drive slowly, find a parking lot when you get there, there's still more than an hour, don't worry."
Under this command, the car's speed was slowed down a little bit. After a while, snowflakes gradually floated outside the car window, from the stars to the goose feathers. The falling snowflakes blocked the sight. sealed in some kind of isolated space.
As a qualified playboy, Xiao Junyi has never stopped to appreciate the falling snow, and it has nothing to do with isolation and comfort. But at this moment, he sat safely in the back seat of this small carriage, expecting time to become slower and more peaceful.
The hand holding PHS was placed on the sand chair, and gently leaned against the other slightly drooping arm.
(End of this chapter)