From the perspective of hedge funds, it is indeed too early to enter copper futures. The Sumitomo incident is a long-term tug-of-war after several ups and downs. From the entry of Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund in early 1995, Sumitomo Group lost 4% in mid-1996. There have been several ups and downs in the middle until the defeat of 100 million US dollars. First, in mid-1995, Binzhong Tainan resisted the pressure of several major hedge funds on his own, and pulled the copper price from more than 27 US dollars back to a high of 3 US dollars. The US dollar was pulled back to 27 yuan by Mr. Hammer. It was not until the copper price collapsed in June that it fell sharply from US$27 to US$17.
If it is just for money, it is completely possible to enter the market from the end of 1995 and spend half a year to obtain this nearly thousand US dollar spread. However, some things are not as simple as imagined. If hedge funds are just money games, then hidden money is the real scary thing.
In the suppression of Sumitomo Group this time, in addition to Quantum Fund, Tiger Fund and other hedge funds specializing in financial derivatives, there are also some metal traders in Canada and Europe. . You must know that since Binzhong Tainan started to emerge in the London metal futures market in the early 1980s, the entire London copper futures market has been directly or indirectly influenced by him in the past ten years. Sumitomo Group is one of the four major consortiums in Japan. , metallurgy, machinery, petroleum, chemical industry and other aspects of the industrial chain, with annual sales of as much as 100 billion yuan, such a strong alliance is a kind of pressure for the Western world.
Metals traders' need for control over commodity pricing is more complex and urgent than hedge funds' pure pursuit of profit. With such a demand, conflicts of interest naturally arise, which led to the collapse of copper prices in 1996. The collapse of copper prices has had a secondary impact on the copper industry worldwide, and countless companies have closed their doors during this collapse. It can be said that this sniping at copper prices is exactly a wash-off of the copper industry in the Western world. Their benefits come not only from the Sumitomo family, but also from the huge global metal market.
With this understanding, for this copper futures operation, it should not only stop at the level of "making money". As China's economy took off, copper prices pulled out a long upward curve from 22 years onwards, and once soared to as high as 8 US dollars per ton in 26 years. As a non-renewable resource, the reserves of copper, aluminum, iron and other minerals will only become less and less in the future, and the shortage of stock is the reality. Unless there are alternatives, this situation cannot be changed at all. If there is no way to break through this restraint, China's resources field will always be trapped and unable to move.
Therefore, the significance of this Sumitomo incident is more important. This is not only a tactical operation problem, but also a strategic overall situation. At present, Chen Yuanming's net worth is not small in the hedge fund industry. You must know that the Quantum Fund is only worth 500 million at this time, the Tiger Fund may be less than 400 million, and Yuanyang Fund has nearly 1.5 billion in capital and 800 million in working capital. The dollar can already end up as a hunter in person.
But this money is far from enough to be "behind the scenes". In the face of giant chaebols and multinational groups that constitute the global metallurgical industry, it is so small that it is hardly worth mentioning. Only the state group can really control the situation and obtain huge benefits from it. Guoxing, and the existence behind it, is the key to everything. And if the target is locked at this level, now it is necessary to start planning.
With this serious consideration, Chen Yuanming certainly would not hide any doubts about Sun Guoqiang. He not only explained in detail the agreement between him and Mr. Robertson, as well as the operation mode of the entire hedging plan. At the same time, it also briefly shared some information about the current situation of the world copper industry.
Although Sun Guoqiang does not have much experience in futures, he is still very sensitive to the economy, especially the domestic economy. Before they went abroad, someone in the Guoxing team had already calculated the index price cointegration relationship between Shanghai aluminum and London aluminum, and established a set of formulas and analysis curves that made Chen Yuanming look a little dizzy. Facts are noted.
After Guoxing entered the international futures aluminum market and made profits from it, the theoretical research was further strengthened, and some experience was integrated in combination with the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. This group of real technocratic bureaucrats are often more sensitive than businessmen in macro-control. After having sufficient information and getting used to the rules of the international futures market step by step, they accept and understand it as fast as anyone else.
Therefore, when Chen Yuanming opened up the matter, Sun Guoqiang frowned slightly, "You mean, you want to cut into the pricing power dispute from this matter?"
"It's still a little early to talk about pricing power." Chen Yuanming shook his head, "but mining companies are an ideal step to intervene. If this crackdown is really successful, a wave of mining companies will be reshuffled around the world. When Europe and the United States are busy dealing with Japan, we Can you pry some corners over here?"
Given the national conditions, it is unrealistic to rush to grab the pricing power now. Keeping a low profile is the current development status of China. However, if you know the historical development track, you can generally guess some behind-the-scenes things, and how can you not make people excited when all kinds of convenient conditions are placed there. It's just that for industrial entities, Chen Yuanming is still a layman. The real mining industry is a key industry involving national strategic resources. If you want to grab this kind of cheapness from others, it's not that he can control things.
Sun Guoqiang frowned, shook his head, and nodded again, "If we only refer to copper, we don't have much control. The countries with the largest copper production in the world are not within China's sphere of influence. South America such as Chile and Peru. Needless to say about the country, Mexico is the possession of the United States, and Indonesia, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan also have a sense of hostility, because it is Indonesia. At present, it is not easy to set foot in these places... "
"But..." After a pause, he pointed at the pile of information about the Mexican financial crisis in front of him, "This crisis is a good starting point. It can be said that the destruction of the Mexican economy is the excessive liberalization of the financial system. Fang has a little thought, they should increase their industrial construction and cut into a destroyed economic system, which is much easier than usual. In your opinion, how long does it take for Mexico to recover?"
"Very." Chen Yuanming replied very succinctly, "The North American financial system cannot be chaotic, and the United States will not allow the Mexican financial market to continue to collapse. Robertson also told me at the party that the United States will begin to assist Mexico in the near future to help it restore its financial market. Normal order. But there will be continued shocks, and Latin America will certainly be affected.”
"Well." Sun Guoqiang nodded lightly, "What about the copper futures situation? How long do you think the Sumitomo Group can last?"
"Don't worry about this." Chen Yuanming smiled, "This is a commodity pricing power. As long as Sumitomo Group and Binzhong Tainan are not stupid, they will not give up easily. I think it may last for a year or even a year and a half. Bar."
"That is to say, when the South American and Mexican economies have just entered a period of improvement, they may encounter a crisis in the copper industry again?"
"Theoretically, it's not bad." Chen Yuanming's answer was very straightforward, and he was quite sure about this.
"Then you can give it a try..." Sun Guoqiang fell into deep thought again.
"Don't forget, if copper futures go up or down significantly, then other metals are likely to fluctuate, so by 1996, we may have more than one product opportunity for copper."
With the addition of an item of chips, it has constituted a sufficiently attractive pie. Although China has established a strategic partnership with Brazil in 1993, Brazil's Vale is, after all, a rock that is too hard to chew on. If sufficient preparations can be made before this kind of international change, perhaps there will be some gains in the copper industry and even other mining industries. This need is not only economic, but also political.
However, the stakes are very important, and the specific details need to be scrutinized in detail. In the following days, Sun Guoqiang held several consultations with Chen Yuanming, and finally settled on the position of Guoxing Fund in this game.
At present, Guoxing Fund has achieved quite good results in aluminum futures. Because the intervention time is just right, it is mixed with the short-selling team, and the operation is almost smooth. But 200 million is still a large enough number after all, and it also indirectly affects the speed of aluminum price decline. When this downward trend reaches the bottom line of those mining companies, they will inevitably start to rescue the market. From the current situation, it will not be too late. at the end of March.
At that time, the first wave of operations for copper futures had begun. Under the massive offensive, Guoxing could slowly withdraw from aluminum futures and enter the copper futures market to fish in troubled waters, further depressing copper prices. If the copper price rebounds, it can quickly turn into a long position, and use the Binzhong offensive to counter-suppress the European and American groups, buy time for the overall situation, and also earn more benefits. And when the opportunity is right, it becomes a good choice to turn the bulls into the empty again and fall into the trap.
In this way, turning hands into clouds and covering hands into rain, no matter which side is strong or weak, Guoxing can always be in an invincible position in this money game. The Chen Yuanming Yuanyang Fund will allocate a certain amount of funds to carry out long-term operations. Although the profit in the early stage is worrying, when the Sumitomo Group is completely defeated after insisting, of course, huge profits will fall into the pocket.
A game of only winning money.
Of course, Sun Guoqiang would not have the slightest objection to this method of operation. Instead, he said with a smile, "If there is a crime of disrupting the market order in the world, it is estimated that we should all be convicted."
Hearing this, Chen Yuanming also showed a slight smile, "In the era of great voyages, there must always be a pirate culture first, as long as the blade is not directed towards him."
Yes, the difference between marine civilization and agricultural civilization is precisely this. This set of game rules was established by Europe and the United States, and it still retains the original appearance of hundreds of years ago, but it is more hidden and cruel. If we don't learn from, learn from, and even use his own way, China will never be able to re-emerge in this global village.
Just the word "rise" is easier said than done.
Having obtained first-hand information about Mexico and a long-term plan for the futures market this year and next, Sun Guoqiang took his own troops home. It will take some time to cut into the copper future. After participating in several elite banquets, Chen Yuanming temporarily put down the operation of Yuanyang and turned back to the direction of Silicon Valley. If this year's futures market is just laying the groundwork for next year, then in Silicon Valley, it's harvest season.
The author has something to say: wood has more than 8 points! 嘤夤~~The business war is still so troublesome qaq
Proofreading, let’s talk about it tomorrow, go to sleep__