"By the way, Tingsheng, what is CDO?" Huang Yaming suddenly asked Xu Tingsheng.
"I also want to ask." Lao Jin said.
"You ask this too?" Xiao Jinshan, who had drank two glasses of red wine, looked up at his father in a daze and said, "It's English... Do you understand? You can't even pinyin. Uncle Xu, let's talk about this kind of question." , let me tell you, my English tutor has very big breasts... "
Lao Jin slapped him into silent mode.
"Where did you hear this?" Xu Tingsheng asked back.
"There is a mixed race named Wayne Yang who said he knew you. He came to us and sold us this," Huang Yaming said. "By the way, he also said that many investment banks on Wall Street are doing this."
"This bastard is really pervasive and does everything. Fortunately, he is not an arms dealer, otherwise there might be a world war." Xu Tingsheng shook his head and said.
Wayne Yang is probably a middleman for a Wall Street bank, and he also sold this to Xu Tingsheng before, and Xu Tingsheng asked him to help him deal with Apple. Unexpectedly, he even found Lao Jin and Huang Yaming.
"Then what did you say?" Xu Tingsheng asked.
"I said that I don't know what the hell it is... and I never listen to the person who wants to sell me what it is. Then let him go." Huang Yaming said, "I'm asking you now, that is pure Bored and curious."
"This thing is quite complicated." Xu Tingsheng said.
"No, you don't actually know, do you? Ha..." Xiao Jinshan, who had drunk too much, became excited again.
Xu Tingsheng slapped him like Lao Jin and put him in silent mode.
"It's a good thing that the stinky fish didn't see it..." Xiao Jinshan rubbed his little head and said pitifully, "Sooner or later, I will be photographed as an idiot by you."
"Collateralized Debt Obligation, or CDO for short, we have learned it in the finance department professional class. To unfold it, it is indeed as Ting Sheng said, it is very complicated." Fu Cheng, who is a professional, interjected next to it.
Lao Jin and Huang Yaming wanted expressions to prove that they didn't understand anything.
"Well, let me simplify it and give you an example." Xu Tingsheng thought for a while and said, "You all know about housing loans, right? Housing loans."
"Nonsense. These days, you can ask an 80-year-old lady to know." Lao Jin said.
"I thought you local tyrants didn't need to know this." Xu Tingsheng said with a smile, "The mortgage includes the unpaid principal and interest of the purchase itself. Generally, the amount is not small and the cycle is relatively long. And then generally In some cases, the house itself is the collateral.”
"Now, for example, I am a bank." Xu Tingsheng pointed to himself, and continued: "And then, Lao Jin bought a house today and took out a housing loan with me. The cycle is 30 years. As a bank, although I have He makes money, but he thinks that the recovery of funds is too slow. In order to recover funds quickly, he took out his mortgage to make mortgage-backed securities, and then found some institutions to guarantee... and then sold them. This is a CDO, a mortgage loan Secured Debt Securities."
"Oh." Huang Yaming said.
"Will you buy it? Share the proceeds with the bank." Xu Tingsheng asked him.
"If you have spare money, it's fine. Anyway, you can make a steady profit without losing money. Lao Jin, will he not be able to pay back the mortgage?" Huang Yaming responded straightforwardly.
"Yes, if you know that this person is a local tyrant like Lao Jin, I think many people will be willing to buy it. But will I, the bank, be so honest and lose money? I won't sell it individually, I will sell it in packages... For example One hundred housing loans at a time, some of them are rich bosses like Lao Jin, some are small businesses, some are teachers, civil servants... In short, I use the mortgages of various people from all walks of life as the basis to make CDOs, divided into several levels Set a price and sell it. Do you still buy it?"
Xu Tingsheng looked at Huang Yaming and asked with a smile.
"Is the profit big?" Huang Yaming asked.
"Each level is different, the higher the risk, the greater the reward. Of course, it looks good so far, at least in the United States, it is really popular now." Xu Tingsheng said.
"Under what circumstances will I lose money?"
"Among the people who bought houses with loans, a large number of people defaulted on the contract and forfeited the payment. Moreover, the bank took back the house and could not sell it."
"You mean, many people don't want their houses?"
"No more. Not only the house, but also the down payment and the repaid part of the money are all gone."
"Then I can rest assured," Huang Yaming said, "buy it, you can buy it."
"Why?" Xu Tingsheng continued to ask.
Huang Yaming glanced at him, as if he was asking too much, but he still explained: "I don't know about things in the United States. Anyway, taking our situation in China as an example, housing prices are soaring... 100 people , I have never seen a person who is willing to cut off the confession and let go of the house."
"It seems to be like this... In fact, the current situation in the United States is similar. The government has lowered interest rates to encourage house purchases, and the real estate market is very hot." Xu Tingsheng said, "But have you ever thought that if someone has to cut off their mortgage due to unemployment or bankruptcy, even though they are reluctant , or will he have to give up his house?"
"Even if there are one or two, you can't lose much, right? Besides, the bank can take back the house and sell it." Huang Yaming said: "Doing business, how can there be no risk? This is considered to be a very small risk."
"Then what do you mean, you bought it?" Xu Tingsheng asked again.
Huang Yaming was a little creeped by his question, he hesitated and turned to Fu Cheng: "Professional, what do you think?"
Fu Cheng thought for a while and said, "At present, I think 90% of the people think the same as you. Including me."
"Then buy it, who are you scaring?!" Huang Yaming said, "Anyway, this is just an example. When you really want to buy it, you have to make up your own mind."
Xu Tingsheng forced a smile... This idea is not easy to take.
"Well, let me tell you another thing. It is relative to CDO. Generally, if there is no artificial intervention, if CDO rises, it will fall, and if CDO falls, it will rise." Xu Tingsheng said.
"What?" Huang Yaming asked.
"CDS, Credit Default Swap. Generally used for hedging and avoiding risks, or..."
"Or what?"
"Short."
"… How to play?"
Xu Tingsheng thought for a while, and said to Huang Yaming: "Well, let's continue the example just now. Now, you have bought a lot of CDOs."
"Well, what then?"
"Then, for example, Xiao Jinshan." Xu Tingsheng pointed to Xiao Jinshan lying on the table and said, "Xiao Jinshan now feels that the CDO in your hand will become a pile of waste paper... So he decided to short you. "
"Is that because he was drunk? Or he was fooled by you." Huang Yaming said with a smile.
"It's okay, anyway, he just thinks that the CDO in your hand will become a pile of waste paper, and decides to short you... So, he will go to a bank or insurance institution to buy an insurance for the CDO in your hand. This insurance is the CDS I just mentioned.”
"What's the situation?" Huang Yaming said, "I'm confused. Why should he buy insurance for me, and who is the beneficiary?"
"Good question. If it's the insurance industry we usually deal with, for example, you suddenly go to the insurance company to buy a personal accident insurance for the son of the school guard Li Er. You pay the money, and the beneficiary is you... this It's not allowed." Xu Tingsheng said.
"Nonsense, if this is allowed, the world won't be in chaos? Buy one, kill one. Buy one, kill one. Anyway, it's not my own." Lao Jin interjected.
"Yes, but I just said this CDS, and it allows it. Xiao Jinshan buys insurance for your CDO, and he pays the handling fee and annual premium. If your CDO becomes waste paper, you will lose money... Banks and insurance institutions will compensate him," Xu Tingsheng said.
"What about me? Compensate me?"
"No compensation. It has nothing to do with you."
"Then at least you have to pass me?" Huang Yaming asked.
"No need." Xu Tingsheng said.
"I'm going... It's me who is co-authoring this game, but it has nothing to do with me?"
"That's what it means. He doesn't even need to know you. The only connection between the two of you is life and death... completely opposite. You die at a loss, he earns a death. You earn a death, he loses a death."
"Stop making trouble, according to what you say, it's not insurance at all, it's..."
"What? Say."
"gamble."
"Bingo, you're right." Xu Tingsheng took a deep breath, "This is a gamble, and it is a super big gamble that can be expanded infinitely. Not only can he bet on you, but he can also bet on Zhang San Li Si Wang Er Mazi, anyone... as long as If a bank or insurance institution is willing to sell it, as long as he has the money to pay the premium, he can even bet on the entire Wall Street.”
After Xu Tingsheng finished speaking, he looked around at everyone on the table, his eyes were cold... as if he was really about to make a big bet of the century.
"How much does that cost?" Lao Jin seemed interested.
"CDS itself comes with a leverage of 10 to 20 times. In other words, because in cash payment, you only need to pay a few percent of the annual premium... So, if you have one billion in your hand, you are brave enough to judge the cycle If it is short enough, you can... bet on other people's hands of 10 billion, 20 billion.
The problem is that your bankroll has to last until the day you win the bet. Also, the bank or insurance institution that sold you the CDS cannot go bankrupt. If it goes bankrupt, it will be useless no matter how much you win. Nobody loses money to you. "
After Xu Tingsheng finished speaking, he poured himself a glass of wine, raised his head and finished it off.
Lao Jin looked at him, suddenly smiled and said, "You're excited."
"That's right, didn't you give me an example?" Fu Cheng also looked at Xu Tingsheng.
"Damn, you don't want to be serious, do you?" Huang Yaming stood up and said, "Don't make trouble, we are making good money now, don't play such an exciting game. We agreed, we don't buy CDOs, CDS, neither Buy... whoever you love, let's take care of ourselves and make money."
Xu Tingsheng thought for a while and nodded.
"Let's be serious, Tingsheng, don't scare me." Huang Yaming was still worried, and continued, "I understand what you said. Don't bully me for not studying hard in college. I also studied history seriously in high school. Yes, CDS really wants you to talk about the winning method, the winning method is so big, unless... "
"Unless what?" Xu Tingsheng asked.
"Economic crisis!" Huang Yaming said.
Xu Tingsheng smiled brightly.
"I'm just kidding. I don't like to gamble all my life, and it's not like you don't know. I don't even know how to play mahjong."
In fact, Xu Tingsheng was really hesitating... and he was about to make a move.
He knew that Zhou Yuandai would not have too much time for himself. Moreover, her assets are too rich and her strength is really too strong. It is just the tip of the iceberg, which is enough for Xu Tingsheng to chew on for several years under normal circumstances.
And for a pit like Saipan, no matter how deep Zhou Yuandai fell into, it was just scratching the surface. She has plenty of room to turn around.
Xu Ting was afraid that he would not have the opportunity to develop slowly, and he did not dare to hope that Zhou Yuandai would suddenly let him go...
His only chance, maybe only one chance, is to set up a shocking situation, dig a super big pit... a big pit where ants can bury an elephant, and bury her all at once.
Xu Tingsheng wanted to find Zhou Yuandai a huge cemetery... For example, the subprime mortgage crisis, Wall Street.
However, it is extremely difficult for her to fully enter the game without being seen through.