Survivorship Bias

Chapter 29: Please enter the urn

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After the game rules were announced, a huge one-minute countdown prompt appeared directly above the birdcage.

An Wujiu stood on the spot and observed the other players. There were more or less doubtful expressions on their faces.

This is normal, but anyone who listens to the rules of such a game may feel confused.

Under many conditions, as a bird in a cage, it can neither judge the person behind it through the sound, nor leave the platform and reach out to touch it.

And the most random point is that before the people outside the cage stand on the platform and determine the order of each other, the bird has been blindfolded and can't see anything.

The sense of smell is also not reliable, the distance between the platform and the platform is not far, even if there is a special smell on his body, it is impossible to judge whether he is right behind him.

But maybe because it is a warm-up match, the best solution is taken. There is no difference between the people other than the first place, and there is no danger of death or elimination.

So judging from everyone's current expressions, they are not very anxious.

An Wujiu turned his face sideways and looked at Shen Ti.

As a result, Shen Ti noticed it at the first time, and turned his face, put the scissors hand next to his eyes, and compared him.

As expected of him.

A minute passed very quickly.

"The game is about to start. By the way, I would like to remind everyone that any player must not use violent means to force other players to leave the platform. Otherwise, it will be considered a foul and will be disqualified from the warm-up match."

"At the beginning of the first game, players who are willing to take the initiative to play the role of the bird in the cage are invited to raise their hands. The time limit is 30 seconds. If no player appears, all players will be deducted 5 points."

The countdown begins again.

Everyone seems to have chosen to stand still.

The role of the caged bird is different from other roles in terms of scoring. It is a high-reward and high-risk role: once the caged bird guesses the bird catcher behind him correctly, he can get 10 points, but if he fails, he will directly deduct 5 points, and only Caged birds may face penalty points.

In addition, it is not easy to succeed. According to the probability, the bird in the cage seems to have only one in six chances of guessing the person who just moved behind him.

For the bird, this is indeed the case, An Wujiu thought.

But it's not the same for outsiders, especially birders.

This game is actually a game between the caged bird and the bird catcher.

"Five seconds left."

An Wujiu raised his hand.

He noticed that at the same time he raised his hand, Shen Ti also raised his hand, but he seemed to give up in the end.

An Wujiu couldn't understand the reason why Shen Ti chose to give up for a while, maybe he hadn't thought it through yet, but it wasn't like his character, it was more like he thought no one was going to participate, so he raised his hand casually and saw someone raised his hand First, let it go.

"The countdown is over."

"Player An Wujiu chose to be the bird in the cage for the first round of the game. Please walk into the cage and stand on the round platform facing the door of the cage."

Following the instructions, An Wujiu opened the door of the birdcage, stepped in, and stood on the round platform. He faces the door, the number of the platform facing him is 1, and the platform facing his back is marked 4, clockwise from 1 to 6.

In other words, the player standing behind him after moving must have stopped at platform 4.

Just after reading the numbers, a four-finger-wide red velvet ribbon suddenly appeared on the top of the golden birdcage, and it fell in front of An Wujiu's eyes.

"Please blindfold the bird in the cage."

So he raised his hand, grabbed the ribbon, covered his eyes, and tied it up.

Shen Ti stared at An Wujiu in the cage. The paler face in the dark, the dark red velvet and his lips, the wrist wrapped in white gauze, the thin shoulders, and the gorgeous cage that imprisoned him.

For a moment, a strange feeling appeared in his brain.

Almost for the first time, he thought that a scene, or picture, could be called aesthetic.

Shen Ti never really felt it.

When he came to the altar, he saw the people who entered with him weeping for their farewell, but he stood motionless, and the face behind the mask was not indifferent, but puzzled.

He didn't know why he was crying.

Similarly, he doesn't understand people's great joy after victory, but he finds it interesting, so he will learn, but sometimes it seems to be used incorrectly, and the sad scene responds with joy, making others think he is a weirdo.

Even the gesture of nodding his shoulders to An Wujiu just now after initializing here, he learned from the two children he met.

But he didn't care about the effect, he felt that he was special to An Wujiu, so even if he made a mistake, An Wujiu probably wouldn't turn his head and walk away like the others.

Shen Ti doesn't think anyone is ugly, and he doesn't think anyone is beautiful. In his eyes, these people of all kinds seem to share a blurred face. So he also didn't understand the works of art in the bunker, those great paintings handed down from generation to generation, even if he looked at them carefully with a magnifying glass, he didn't think they were special.

Seeing An Wujiu, he felt different for the first time.

I don't think he has a blurred face, but a precise face, which is different from anyone else.

It was also the first time that he perceived the special form of aesthetics.

"The caged bird is ready."

After blindfolding, An Wujiu suddenly found that his hearing became very strange. He was usually so sensitive that he could pick up any sound, but now he could only hear the voice of the Holy Tone, even a little bit of background sound, footsteps, etc. No sound or breathing can be heard.

This is probably because the system blocks other sounds for the caged bird to ensure the smooth operation of the game rules.

It's really quiet.

Even the sound of Shen Ti's earrings could not be heard.

"Next, ask the caged bird to name a number."

An Wujiu was blindfolded and couldn't see anything.

Numbers don't matter at all, he thought.

It's not even important to move.

Those who really want to catch birds will definitely come.

So he opened his mouth and said a number at random.

"6."

"Now start moving."

Soon, he heard the ethereal child's voice again, singing a song that made his heart feel slightly chilled.

Besides, An Wujiu did not get any outside information.

The nursery rhyme stopped abruptly, and Shengyin said: "The person outside the cage has moved."

"Caged bird, who is the bird catcher behind you?"

The blindfolded An Wujiu moved his lips.

"Shen Ti."

The reason why he chose Shen Ti was not because he wanted to raise his hand, but because he believed that Shen Ti's level must be the same as his, and he had seen through the gameplay of the game after the rules were finished.

If there are people at Shen Ti's level, this game is not a game of chance.

"Caged bird, please open your eyes and look back."

Hearing Shengyin's instructions, An Wujiu untied the ribbon and looked back.

Then he smiled slightly.

Sure enough, it was Shen Ti, and he even tilted his head towards himself.

"The bird in the cage wins this round of the game, the player An Wugui gets 10 points, and the rest of the players still get 0 points."

When he came down, he saw Josh, a European boy, frowning suspiciously, knowing that he still didn't understand how he guessed it. After all, he hadn't had a word with Shen Ti before entering the cage.

In this game, there is indeed an information gap between different players.

One piece of information that An Wujiu got more than new players was the range of abilities of Shen Ti, Zhong Yirou and Wu You.

But this information gap will gradually dissipate in the next few rounds.

Because the name of this game is Bird in a Cage, everyone pays too much attention to the bird in the cage, not to themselves or the bird catcher outside the cage.

The bird in the cage has no choice but to guess the person behind him in the cage. At first glance, the winning rate seems to be really 1/6.

But those outside the cage can choose.

They can even calculate the moment when the bird in the cage calls out the number, so as to seize the opportunity and turn themselves from "cage outsider" to "bird catcher".

Bird catchers are zero-risk, medium-reward players in this game. Points will not be deducted for failure to catch birds, and they can get more points than ordinary people outside the cage if they succeed.

Therefore, this game should be interpreted as: how to make yourself a bird catcher as much as possible without being predicted by the caged bird.

In this inverted stance, the game is no longer "bird in a cage" but a chair grab.

Grab the same chair.

An Wujiu and Shen Ti recognized each other's strength, so he believed that Shen Ti had already understood the hidden meaning of the rules, and switched his position to the role of a bird catcher. When he called out the number 6, he calculated the platform to occupy, That is platform 4.

In this way, after six clockwise movements, Shen Ti can stand behind An Wujiu after exactly one round.

For birders, the odds are 1 in 2.

Either the capture is successful, or the opponent guesses it.

Once there is a smart bird catcher, the winning rate of the caged bird is also greatly improved.

He just needs to think, who would be so smart.

Since the process of selecting a platform gives players full initiative, players who want to be bird catchers will find their position very quickly and quickly, which greatly eliminates uncertainty.

But An Wujiu is very clear, Shen Ti is sure, even if he discovers the reverse rule, he may not be bold enough to choose him.

That's the part they're all betting on.

As long as An Wujiu dare not say his name, he can get five points.

But An Wujiu guessed right.

He used the fowler's psychology of wanting to win, and in the first round of the game, when everyone didn't fully understand the rules, he found the person who was most likely to seize the role of the fowler.

The holy voice appeared.

"The second round of the game begins. The bird catchers of the first round of the game are invited to enter the cage to become the new caged bird and blindfolded."

An Wujiu handed the red velvet ribbon to Shen Ti.

In the silence, their fingertips touched inadvertently.

Shen Ti covered the ribbon and tied it neatly. And An Wujiu who "regained his freedom" looked at him from outside the cage, but he also felt a little strange.

Although blindfolded is also very handsome, but sure enough, Shen Ti's most powerful eyes are those eyes.

This time, An Wujiu could focus on the other people outside the cage. He didn't plan to snatch the bird catcher this round because he had a big lead in the score. Shen Ti sent 10 points.

He intended to see if anyone else had discovered the importance of the fowler.

Shen Ti stood still in the cage, and gave a number according to Sheng Yin's instructions.

"5."

In the next second, An Wujiu, who was standing still, thought that the bird catcher should choose Platform 5 as the starting point.

6-1-2-3-4, move five times, behind Shen Ti.

At this time, he saw the young lady named Yang Erci walking straight towards platform 5, and stood up very firmly, while others seemed to be still choosing a platform.

She is really tall, wearing a pair of flat shoes, similar to Zhong Yirou who wears high heels.

While An Wujiu was watching, Yang Erci also looked at him. So An Wujiu rolled his eyes away.

Everyone has been selected, and finally there is a No. 1 seat left, and An Wujiu stands up. Sure enough, when he was not in the cage, he could hear everyone's footsteps, and even the friction of clothing materials.

"Now start moving."

The ballad echoed in the hall again.

Soon it stopped again.

"The person outside the cage has moved."

"Caged bird, who is the bird catcher behind you?"

An Wujiu stared at Shen Ti, because he was blindfolded, he could only stare at Shen Ti's lips.

For a moment, he wondered if Shen Ti could guess right.

But in the next moment, he immediately realized that the information he thought he had was poor, but in fact Shen Ti also had it, and he might have learned about it earlier.

"Yang Erci."

He guessed right.

Following Shengyin's instruction, Shen Ti took off the ribbon, the first thing he saw was An Wujiu's calm face, he felt a little better chance of winning, then turned around and saw the correct answer he had chosen.

As early as the first round of the game, when An Wujiu was still blindfolded, Shen Ti observed the others, and found that among all the people outside the cage, he was the only one who immediately moved towards platform 4, which the bird catcher should occupy. But there was another person, namely Yang Erci. She seemed to have reacted, but her movements were a step slower. Seeing that he had already gone there, she withdrew her steps, paused, and then randomly chose another platform.

So Shen Ti knew, and Yang Erci also understood that this was a bird catcher's game. When he became a caged bird in the second round, he had two clear choices in his mind - An Wujiu and Yang Erci.

An Wujiu is still in a calm and peaceful state at this moment, not to win him who is unscrupulous, so he should use this time to observe others, collect information, and prepare for the subsequent rounds.

So Shen Ti placed his bet on Yang Erci, and got the reward as expected.

"The bird in the cage wins, player Shen Ti gets 10 points, and other players get no points for this round."

"Current scoring situation on the field: player An Wujiu and player Shen Ti - 10 points, and the rest of the players 0 points."

Halfway through the game, the two players on the field had already taken a substantial lead.

In the third round of the game, replace Yang Erci as the bird in the cage and guess the bird catcher behind him. Blindfolded, she stood still on the stage and said the number she wanted everyone to move.

"2."

An Wujiu wanted to try to grab the bird catcher platform this round, because he wanted to see who would be disappointed if he didn't grab it.

When he stood on platform No. 2 with an extremely fast reaction speed, he found that Zhong Yirou was just one step away from standing on it.

Her discouragement was obvious, she took the next best thing to stand on platform 3 next to An Wujiu, put her hands on her hips, and expressed her dissatisfaction with him.

The corners of An Wujiu's mouth pursed, revealing a slight smile, as if expressing apology.

Shen Ti was standing on platform No. 5, and he got up slowly, after An Wujiu chose his own platform.

This choice is very smart. If the bird in the cage wins, Shen Ti will have no loss. If the bird in the cage loses, he can still get 3 points as a reward. What's more, he only confronted Yang Erci in the last round, so this time he is Yang Erci's key suspect.

Therefore, Shen Ti's not fighting or grabbing is also within An Wujiu's expectation.

However, just before the song was played, the scene of Yang Erci staring at him suddenly appeared in front of his eyes.

So before moving, An Wujiu turned around and made an exchange gesture to Zhong Yirou.

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