Survivorship Bias

Chapter 4: Keep a low profile

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No one dies without knowing why.

An Wujiu's goal at this moment is the same as that of everyone present, to become a survivor in the game. In this warm-up match, he needs to do two things.

1. Can't win.

2. Quietly prompting Yang Ming to win.

Losing is actually very simple. If you choose 1 or 100, you will definitely lose, but it is too eye-catching, and it looks like giving up. The difficulty of this game is that the loss is not obvious. Through the results, Yang Ming and others must believe that they are not "so strong" in the legend. In this way, other people's fear and defense against him can be alleviated.

Thin rainwater fell on the round table, wrapped in the smell of chemical raw materials and soil, which was terrifyingly real.

time is limited.

The original purpose of playing this game with positive thinking is to predict the results of others through analysis, so that the number chosen by oneself is closer to the average value of the numbers chosen by everyone.

What about the other way around

He wants Yang Ming to be the person closest to 1/2 of the average, so he needs to predict other people's numbers and the numbers Yang Ming might choose, and finally decide which number he wants to write.

To achieve the desired result, An Wujiu needs to guess the range of each candidate's number as much as possible.

The options are between 1 and 100. Assuming that there are enough rational participants in this game, so many that personal orientation can be ignored, then the guessed numbers will be evenly distributed between 1 and 100, and the average value will be around 50 , after taking 1/2, the selectable number will be further reduced, from [1,100] to [1,50], if you choose more than 50, it is impossible to become half of the average value. According to the probability or median, the number that people generally guess is half the mean of 50, which is 25.

If you choose a number above 25, your chances of winning will be greatly reduced.

Choosing a number that is too large will cause a psychological burden, and you will be afraid that you will be the one who will be averaged out. Under this mentality, choosing a smaller number is the safe card.

But this is only the first layer of logic.

If everyone is aware of this and follows this layer of logic, the selected numbers will generally fall below 25. In this way, 1/2 of the final average value will be shifted downwards to become about 12.5. By analogy, the next level is 6.25...

Players in the first tier will guess their own average 1/2.

The player in the second level will guess what he thinks the average value of others is 1/2.

Or even 1/2 of what they think, what other people think is the mean in other people's minds...

With the deepening of the player's logic level, the final guessed number will be smaller and smaller until the number 1, because no player will think that other people will choose a smaller number than himself. This equilibrium state is the Nash equilibrium.

So the most difficult part of this game is not to guess the average, but to guess which level the current eight contestants are in.

Therefore, after learning the rules of the game, An Wujiu devoted all his energy to observation, which was the only way he could obtain intelligence on strangers in a short time. A person's thinking mode is largely formed by the day after tomorrow, depending on life experience and education, and the thinking mode will in turn affect his dressing and dealing with others.

Liu Chengwei has never been to school, has not received basic education, and has a high probability of not knowing game theory.

An Wujiu glanced at Liu Chengwei, and found that he didn't write the answer decisively, but scratched his head and thought hard for a while.

But when you get this kind of question, you can always think of the number close to the middle. For Liu Chengwei's level, the probability of choosing an average value of 50 is the greatest.

When he looked at the others, An Wujiu suddenly realized that when he woke up, the panel displayed the fifth level. I don't know if other players are the same, but at least one thing is possible - no one is a novice. Because no one was overly flustered, unfamiliar with the rules, and no one broke down when they saw offenders being shot.

These survivors have experienced the previous rounds and survived, and this round is not a novice round. According to the difficulty of this warm-up game, there may have been similar projects before.

None of the survivors alive today are fools.

Wu You, the youngest in the grade... An Wujiu felt very strange that such a young child could enter such a life-and-death game. Just looking at his clothes, he did not seem like someone who could afford the cost of education. When Wu Jiu had the pattern on his neck, Wu You immediately mentioned the type of flower, which at least showed that his family was not ordinary.

The average value of 25 must be expected, but if he really chooses 25, he may also worry that someone will choose a smaller number and lower the average value.

His answer is probably closer to 12.5 gears.

Ueno and Lao Yu seem to belong to the same category of people, they are cautious, afraid of fouls, and think too much. Ueno wears glasses, and there are thin calluses on the fingertips after using the keyboard, which is probably the trace of long-term use of the keyboard, so he should have received education, or even higher education. They should stand at a higher level of logic than Liu Chengwei and Wu You, so it is about 6.25, and they can only choose natural numbers, so it is 6.

An Wujiu fell into deep thought. It is not easy to think of around 6, and there will be risks if you continue to go down, because everyone's thinking depth is different. Even if you can think of deeper logic, you will worry that others will not think of it, so you give up choosing a smaller number.

What about Zhong Yirou

She is very smart. This is An Wujiu's impression of her. She is good at interpersonal relationships and good at observation. Before others understand the key to this game, she has already guessed Yang Ming's occupation. This kind of intelligence gathering ability is definitely not ordinary people.

In addition, the distribution of her finger calluses does not seem to be left by using a computer, and the small scars are more like using a fine knife.

An Wujiu looked at the tool bag on her body, the artificial leather on her calf and the modified palm.

It should be related to prosthetic body modification or precision machinery.

But it was precisely because she was smart enough that her analysis of the first few people should be the same as her own. For her, both Yang Ming and herself needed to be on guard.

According to the information about An Wujiu given by Yang Ming, the useful information is nothing more than scheming, insidious and cunning. Such an image will lead Zhong Yirou to believe that [An Wujiu will make very unexpected choices, such as very low numbers. . ]

For her, the final result may be around 6. Once someone chooses a small number, which is balanced with the previous one by Liu Chengwei and others, it may be exactly where she is in the end.

Everyone can only guess at the moment, An Wujiu is very clear that he is just guessing, and the final result may not be one of them.

But despite this, guessing can be divided into easy guessing and difficult guessing. The most difficult thing for him is to be alert.

This person is currently the only one on the court who has no flaws.

With a mask on his face, he couldn't see his face, and there was nothing unique about his clothes, and he hadn't even made a statement so far. An Wujiu couldn't help raising his head while thinking, and looked in the opposite direction. But he found that the other party was looking at him.

The two looked at each other again, An Wujiu squinted his eyes.

The other party is also watching him.

For everyone on the field, An Wujiu, described as a lunatic, is undoubtedly a dangerous time bomb, Shen Ti is probably also very curious.

In the eyes of two people, each other is the biggest uncertainty factor, and it is the fault tolerance point of the other party. It's just that one person has no flaws, and the other person is completely exposed.

wrong. An Wujiu looked down at the paper.

No flaw is the biggest flaw.

Shen Ti chose not to expose at all, which shows that he understands the fundamentals of this game. Then the choices of the previous few people are also predictable to him, there are at least two people who will choose a number higher than 6, so if Shen Ti wants to win, he will not choose a number that is too low.

But An Wujiu can only bet on the specific number between 6 and 12.5.

Currently there is a number that may appear around 25, a number that may appear around 12.5, and three numbers that may appear around 6. Not counting Shen Ti, Yang Ming and himself, the average number is about 11. Then 1/2 of the average will appear on 5 or 6.

Logically speaking, if the remaining three people are people who are good at deep thinking, the number they would choose should be low, and they can even reach the third level. But precisely because of this, they understand the rules of how the game works, and what they can really do is not to guess deeper, but to approach other people's answers.

Shen Ti's full armor made An Wujiu feel something, and his intuition made him believe that the opponent would choose a lower number.

Since he can feel it, Yang Ming must also be able to.

The final number will not be higher than 6.

What will Yang Ming choose

No, how would Yang Ming speculate on himself

An Wujiu looked at Yang Ming, who was staring at the display screen without raising his head, frowning, as if lost in thought.

"The calculation time is up. Now announce the results of the first round of 'The Golden Mean' game."

The handwriting screen in front of each of them casts new projections in the air in turn.

"Wu You: 13, Yu Guang: 6, Zhong Yirou: 6, Ueno Dacheng: 7, Liu Chengwei: 25.

Yang Ming: 5, Shen Ti: 6, An Wujiu: 8. "

"1/2 of the final average is 4.75, and the closest to it is Yang Ming's result. Yang Ming wins."

Seeing the expected complacency and rare relaxation on Yang Ming's face, An Wujiu's heart sank.

His prediction was not wrong.

Yang Ming's level is the same as he imagined, and he can estimate the average range of the field, but for him, estimation is useless, because there is a person he is afraid of.

After the previous conversation, An Wujiu already knew how dangerous he was in Yang Ming's mind. He was very scheming and good at disguising. He didn't play cards according to common sense and looked down on anyone else.

So playing steadily and steadily did not meet his expectations.

The persona of Bai Qiehei was given to him by Yang Mingan, so An Wujiu had no choice but to use it.

He calculated Yang Ming's scheme against him, and finally wrote a result on paper that should meet the other party's expectations. 8. A number that seems to be underestimating the level of others.

Although this cannot be regarded as an aboveboard strategy, An Wujiu has no other choice, he just wants to protect himself.

The final result was not bad as expected, but there was a slight surprise that Shen Ti had just chosen a 6. He would not fail to guess that the result could not be evenly distributed.

Like on purpose.

"As expected of Brother Yang." Zhong Yirou changed his words, brushed the hair hanging from his shoulders, and smiled sweetly, "It's amazing."

"Luck, luck." Yang Ming couldn't hide the smile on his face. It's often so easy to build self-confidence. It only needs a powerful opponent who was once avoided to lose to him in full view.

"Tch, I thought some people were so powerful." Liu Chengwei sneered, "It's no different from people like us. In the end, they even lost the warm-up game."

These words were expected by An Wujiu. When Liu Chengwei said it, he even felt a little gratified that his goal had been achieved.

Dramatically, the one who spoke for An Wujiu turned out to be Yang Ming who regarded him as a thorn in his side.

"It's just that the horse stumbles occasionally." He raised his eyebrows, "After all, I haven't done it in vain for so many years."

An Wujiu sat quietly, staring at his slightly trembling fingers.

As a result of winning, a gift box popped up in front of Yang Ming and landed in his hand with a blue light.

"Congratulations. Before announcing the advantages you have gained this round, first initialize the game for everyone."

As soon as the words fell, everyone on the round table floated up, dizzy like the illusion caused by excessive intake of hallucinogens, the world wrapped in light pollution and air dust began to spin and collapse, and finally turned into a small point, a white particle .

Then, like an explosion, the particles expand into a whole new world at an uncapturable speed.

Shengyin began to introduce the world view of the new round of the game: "This round of the game is called the massacre of red and black. Terrorists launched a poison gas attack on Miami. The density of this poison gas is lower than that of the air, and the casualties above the surface are heavy. At the time of life and death, The eight of you came to the safe bunker below the office building by accident through the air defense channel."

"This is a miniature nuclear bunker secretly excavated and developed by the founder of Kamiji Company. It is 18 meters deep underground. It is safe but closed, and the exit has been destroyed. It can only be blasted from the outside. The survival resources here are very limited, only enough for the eight of you to support Four nights and five days."

The dust-like particles gradually gathered into fragments, and the fragments approached and spliced together.

"In the bunker, a yellow energy bar will be displayed above each of your heads. It is full at initialization, but with problems such as hunger and thirst caused by lack of supplies, the energy value will continue to decrease. After zero, it will be regarded as dead and out."

"The current system time is 9:00 a.m., and at 9:00 a.m. on the fifth day, there will be a rescue team to rescue everyone, of course, everyone who is alive."

As long as it lasts until 9 o'clock, it means that the survival is successful.

"Will the rescue team dig for five days with just a few people?" It was Zhong Yirou's voice, "Is it rescue or archaeology?"

It was too dazzling in front of him, An Wujiu's damaged vision made it difficult for him to adapt, and it took nearly ten seconds for his vision to become clear.

He heard Ueno's voice.

"Come to rescue us on the fifth day, are the supplies enough..."

After a while, the modeled world finally appeared before their eyes.

An Wujiu stared at the closed door in front of him, and the "Passion of Jesus" ① painted on it.

It can never be that simple.

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The author has something to say:

①Paintings by the painter Raphael, depicting the scene of Jesus being crucified on the cross.

Volume II Red and Black Massacre