Survivorship Bias

Chapter 90: True Witch

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At the moment Sakura Fujido took off, many possibilities flashed through Lao Yu's mind.

He himself is a witch, and his perspective is different from others. The Todo Sakura in front of him was the first to stand up to deceive him during the election process. At that time, he was afraid of revealing that he was a priest, so he wore a civilian dress.

But now Fujido Sakura lied that she was a witch, and gave silver water to a killing card.

Then she really hit the iron board!

Fujido Sakura is still emphasizing her identity at this time.

"I'm the only real witch in the audience. When you see your hole cards clearly, analyze it. Can Andrew make a prophet card? Why did he, a prophet, send a kill to the person I saved? I don’t want to argue with your own logic. In this kind of game, there is Gargoyle, a card that does not meet the Wolves. Then the Wolves only have three people at the beginning. If there are three people, they will kill one. Witch, when there are gargoyles, I must prescribe the antidote cautiously, for fear of saving the gargoyles, so I don't believe Megan can make a self-sword card."

"As for the gargoyle," Fujido Sakura smiled, "it's impossible for her to speak like a gargoyle. The main behavior of the gargoyle in this round should be to find its wolf teammates, and hint to their wolf teammates. In his first night's inspection, Megan didn't comment on anyone on the field. He didn't specifically say who is a good person and who is a wolf. He just chose the one who didn't send her an inspection from two prophets. Can't make a gargoyle. If she were a gargoyle, wouldn't this position jump in place?"

Fujido Sakura spoke in an orderly manner, restrained her joking tone, and she was a different person from the campaign.

"She can only be made into a good person card that fell in the night. I did save her last night, so in my eyes, the one who killed my silver water can only be a wolf, not a gargoyle. True prophecy The home is Matsuura Mori, and this Andrew is Langyu."

She spoke forcefully, "I repeat, I am a witch. If anyone behind me wants to dance against me, I will poison tonight. I will poison whoever jumps. Today I will let this fake middle priest out. Pass."

Everyone's attention came to Lao Yu.

An Wujiu also turned his face slightly.

He didn't comment on Lao Yu during the campaign, not because he cared about Lao Yu's emotional style of play, but because An Wujiu felt that there was a problem.

A magic card whose identity is cheated must be very confident, very strong, and not afraid of being cheated. The more excited the more helpless, it must be the people who cannot prove themselves and do not have much information.

But Lao Yu's emotions were too excited, and it was a bit like a magic card in civilian clothes.

He couldn't point that out during his campaign. If Lao Yu is really a god, An Wujiu pointed out that this logic is likely to be beaten by Biaolang, and only wolves can look for gods, so An Wujiu practiced Tai Chi instead of talking about Lao Yu.

An Wujiu was a little worried that Lao Yu would lose his composure in this round and come out to change his identity.

He suspected that the old man was a witch, because he couldn't hide it when he saw Fujido Sakura's expression. If it's really a witch, you don't need to jump the identity, and directly poison the player who jumped the witch at night.

But this involves the issue of true and false prophets. If they can't push out the false prophet this round, this may affect the witch's poison target.

In short, witches are needed to play psychological games.

Lao Yu's face was heavy, not as aggressive and close to the face as in the campaign, but he calmly said: "I am the real witch, Fujido Sakura is fake, her silver water is also fake, I saved the witch last night. Matsuura Mori."

"To be honest," Lao Yu sighed, "At first I wanted to hide for a while and wear civilian clothes to hide from the knife, but I feel that the good people in the audience can't see the situation clearly. If I don't stand up, someone will pretend to be My identity deceives everyone. Sakura Todo did not do well in the campaign before, and her speech was very strange. Now she is standing in Matsuura. I doubt that she just wants to make a speech, and use a bright wolf identity to dirty the team of true prophets. If you feel that Fujido Sakura has made such a statement and is still standing with Matsuura, you will definitely doubt the true prophet Matsuura in the next round, and it will be even more difficult for us good people to find that gargoyle."

"So I can only stand up," he looked at Todo Sakura on his right, "You can tell from Todo Sakura's speech just now that she is not a witch's perspective at all, since she saved the No. 5 Megan, But she has been asking whether No. 5 can be a wolf. The Iron Witch just pays for the silver, and there is no need for you to ask her, and she is not in today's round. And Fujido Sakura didn't say why she was last night. To save Megan, you seem to have nothing to do with her."

"So you will be out today." Old Yu looked at the others, "Todo Sakura is a wolf, and she is standing by the side now to smear the identity of the prophet, so I can see clearly my cards and the people I rescued, Andrew In my eyes, it is an iron wolf. There are already two wolves. Megan is Andrew’s killing. I think she might make a gargoyle."

He analyzed the others: "You think, the gargoyles don't meet with them at night, so Todo Sakura and Andrew don't know who the gargoyles are, but Andrew got up and sent her a check. Wouldn’t she be good at expressing water? But Meghan’s speech seems to be deliberately poor, as if she is passing words.”

"I feel that Todo Sakura understands that she is a gargoyle, so now after the election is over, the witch jumps to save her. This logic is possible, right?"

Old Yu pointed at Megan, "She must be a gargoyle, pretending to be dizzy here. Then my wolf pit is Andrew, Fujido Sakura and Megan. Fujido Sakura and Andrew are wolves stepping on wolves, and they also step on each other with gargoyles."

He was indeed in a state of being a witch. But An Wujiu always had a faint uneasiness in his heart.

Analyzing it from the perspective of the real witch, it seems that everything went too smoothly.

Will the Wolves really play so hard

But if the Wolves spend a little bit of tactics, it is indeed hard to believe that if the wolves step on the wolves and fight, there will always be wolves who can last until the third day.

It's not easy for the Wolves this time.

"Get this Megan out first today. If she is a gargoyle, the Wolves will have no backing." Lao Yu said forcefully, "I will definitely poison Fujido Sakura to death tonight, and tonight must be a double death. Matsuura Mori He is the real prophet, I don’t think werewolves can kill themselves, and even if there are real wolves, don’t forget that there is a priest among us who specializes in wolves.”

There was no expression on An Wujiu's face.

What Old Yu said was that he was the gravekeeper.

Once there is really a self-blade wolf present to make a good person, and the number ticket allows another person to be pushed out to become a sacrifice in the morning sacrifice, then he only needs to check whether the sacrifice in the morning sacrifice is good or bad at night, and everything will be clear .

If the sacrifice pushed out by them is a good person, then the identity that opposes him must be a werewolf.

If the victim turns out to be a werewolf, then their decision is correct, and the good guys are not on the wrong side.

But this identity card is not something that can be jumped easily. The witch has a bottle of poison in her hand, and the hunter has a gun in her hand. If she sees a jumper, she can kill them. No.

"Last night, I heard the oracle tell me that Matsuura Mori died. I didn't want to save people, and I didn't know them. Besides, I was afraid that the wolves would kill the gargoyles themselves. I would be really kind if I saved them." What to do if you do something bad. But I heard a sentence, I didn’t listen on purpose, I accidentally overheard Fujido Sakura and Matsuura when they were talking.”

"Matsuura said that if he doesn't succeed in this round, he may not be able to be resurrected."

When Matsuura heard Lao Yu say this, he couldn't help being stunned.

"I just thought about it. In fact, he and I still feel sorry for each other, so I decided to save him. As long as he is a good person, he will be able to see the situation clearly. This is my mental journey as a witch."

He spoke very sincerely, which was very different from what he said during the campaign. An Wujiu observed the expressions of other people, probably because Lao Yu was too emotional before, and many people were still dubious after hearing what he said now. manner.

"Anyway, I must produce this middle priest today. I'm a witch. Matsuura is the person I rescued last night. I'll do the golden water you gave me. Andrew must be the jumping wolf. Megan may be a gargoyle. Fujido Sakura Iron Wolf, I will take my place after listening to the speech and then find the last wolf, and pass the others first."

It was An Wugui's turn.

He thought for a while, raised his eyes and said, "Now there are two prophets and two witches on the field, one wolf and one good person. I can't take pictures of their identities. The probability of the three of us with three identities is not high. When they said it just now, I thought about it. Now there are five focus cards on the field, two prophets, two witches, and one killing card. Which one is safer to sacrifice? I think this is what we good people have to consider question."

"To be honest," he turned his head to look at Old Yu, "I really want to get rid of the gargoyle on the first day, but I always feel that Meghan is not a gargoyle, unless everyone is not a wolf card after Andrew in the election. Because if it is, there will definitely be wolf teammates who find that the gargoyle has been checked and killed, and make up for their teammates in place, that is, three wolves participate in the election, and two wolves jump to the prophet, but no one takes off from the prophet .”

"One more thing, if Megan is a gargoyle, not an ordinary wolf, you can think differently. If you are a gargoyle and you happen to be sent to kill by a prophet when you are running for the election, what would you do? Wait and see The wolf teammate of the wolf teammate temporarily makes up jumps to catch you, or take off on the spot? I think everyone should generally choose the latter, because the gargoyle has a natural advantage in taking off, because the gargoyle itself can test people, or even directly. Divine card, right?"

After An Wujiu finished speaking, she looked at Megan, her expression was not very good.

"So I think she is at most an ordinary werewolf card. This is based on the premise that Andrew is a true prophet. If the real prophet is Matsuura Mori, this view will be overturned. It’s Lao Yu, he said that Lao Yu is a good man, Lao Yu played the witch card behind Fujido Sakura, saying that a werewolf killed Matsuura Mori last night. If Matsuura is really a prophet, Lao Yu is a witch, Fujido Sakura is a wolf, Andrew is a wolf, Megan is unknown."

"If Lao Yu is not a witch, but just another good man card, it is not impossible, because if a witch jumps in this place, he will be more powerful than the villagers in keeping Matsuura Mori, a prophet."

"That is to say, when Andrew is a prophet, Fujido Sakura, Matsuura Mori, and Megan are three werewolves. On the contrary, Matsuura is a prophet, and one of Lao Yu and Fujido Sakura is a witch. Doubtful, No. 8 Wu You and No. 9 Noah who voted for Andrew have to drive wolves, there may still be barb wolves during the election, and the wolf pit on this side is relatively difficult to clearly type out."

"I've listened to the previous speech. No. 7 Shen Ti is a good person."

Just as An Wujiu finished speaking, he glanced at Shen Ti, and saw him clutching his chest with an affectation of "you're so nice".

"The wolf pit he opened is similar to what I thought, and he didn't jump into the prophet, and he withdrew from the election. He wanted to give this magic scepter to the real prophet. He is tentatively a good person in my mind."

Hearing the word tentatively, Shen Ti pursed his mouth again, put down his hand covering his heart, and returned to that lazy state of holding his face with his hands.

"Three cards for the vote, it sounds like Nanshan is in a better state, but when he voted for Matsuura during the election, he felt that he would not stand for him. In fact, the two prophets must stand for one. You can listen to the speech. But it’s absolutely impossible not to take sides. Wu You and Noah only told the truth about the reasons for voting. You can say more, because the people who voted will definitely be the focus of everyone’s attention, and they will always ask you to explain why you voted like that.

I don't want to comment on the two witches, because you can solve your own affairs, and I will definitely not lead the poison to myself. "

An Wujiu said with a smile, "Actually, when I heard the two witches tell me about saving lives, my first reaction was very happy, because I thought that I would die on the first night, but the two wounds turned out to be dead." Not on me. Still."

"I suddenly realized that this is not something I should be thankful for." An Wujiu raised his eyebrows, "Because I thought that if I met a Wolves team that wasn't very good at playing and was afraid of me, they would definitely start on the first night. Kill me, give it a try and the witch won't prescribe medicine. But it wasn't me who died, so I have to think about it, why didn't the Wolves kill me? Is it because they are really not afraid of me?"

An Wujiu stretched out his right hand, and put his hand on the glass cover of the kerosene lamp at the top of the lamp post, the scorching heat immediately spread to his cold palm.

"I think they want to take advantage of other people's fear of me, and deliberately keep me on the field. In this way, maybe I may enter the pit of the good wolf and become a counter-push position, and directly help them block the next sacrifice. The best of both worlds .”

This statement seems to open up a new vision for the players on the field.

The smile on An Wujiu's mouth gradually disappeared.

"So I guess, this time the Wolves should be a high-profile player."

After he finished speaking, he returned to a relaxed state, "That's all I can share. From the speeches of the two prophets, Andrew must be the preferred one. The speech was flawless, and the subject to be tested was also well selected, but Matsuura jumped first. Yes, I have a certain tolerance for him, in fact, I feel that witches are more difficult to distinguish, but fortunately, you are a card that can prove your identity, and werewolves will definitely not kill witches, so I don’t need to analyze too much.”

"I originally wanted to think of Megan because she didn't speak well, but I was afraid of pushing Megan. The grave guard said she was a wolf the next day, and we couldn't define Andrew's identity, because Megan might commit suicide. I'll listen to the two prophets again, I still think it's best to sacrifice the prophet to define the identity, and the gravekeeper has verified that it is a wolf or a wolf."

"pass."

After An Wujiu finished speaking, it was number 12 Matsuura Mori's turn.

His current expression was not as relaxed as it seemed in the first round of speaking, and he even sighed softly before speaking.

"Speaking on the twelfth, I am indeed a real prophet, and I did test the number two last night. The number two is a good person. I can't directly say that he must be a witch, but he is the real one I tested last night. Good man, I hope everyone will not put number two in the wolf pit, he is a good man. He can prove himself whether he is a witch, so I won't talk about his specific identity."

"You said that I didn't choose the test subjects well enough, indeed, because I was the first to jump to the prophet, one of the first three speeches was fraudulent, and the other was fraudulent. An Wujiu sounds like a good person, so I I haven't heard much, and I can change it after the campaign is over."

"Secondly, there is the gargoyle. It is not easy for me to point out the gargoyle in the fourth position. This is not a card that can be drawn by looking at the face. The first three are not like it. In my eyes, the gargoyle In the first round, I definitely didn’t want to make myself the focus, otherwise it would be dangerous, and the Wolves teammates might not recognize him, and I hope good people can recognize me as a prophet, so I am more tactful, I hope I can help me On the ticket, in this case, I will not hit someone, it must be a wolf or a gargoyle, I still want this scepter."

Matsuura Mori's expression was very sincere, even with a trace of unrecognized helplessness and self-mockery, "Only Nanshan voted for me, he is a good person with me, and he also prefers to speak, I don't know if you can stand in this round I, in short, I have said everything I should say. If you can believe me, Andrew will be out this round, and he is the wolf that jumped against me."

"Tonight I will not test the number one. I will test the number eight Wu You. Wu You voted for Andrew and his speech was very short. If I can still live, I will test the number four (Zhou Yijue) tomorrow night, because the number one I think An Wujiu is a good person, old is a good person I tested, Fujido Sakura jumps the witch, the witch will definitely open the poison tonight, I don’t need to test, Megan I heard An Wujiu and Laoyu say they want to push her , I don’t think it’s necessary, she is a wolf killer, you can keep it first and then listen to her speech, this round must destroy the divine scepter, get Andrew, I will go to test Zhou Yijue tomorrow night.”

"I don't have much else to say. I'm talking to the good people in the audience. I'm a true prophet. I hope everyone can accept my speech and destroy the scepter. I'm over."

It was Yang Ce's turn.

A slightly puzzled expression appeared on Yang Ce's face.

"I feel that the chat on the 12th is not very good. The reason why they voted against you is not because you can't chat well in the election."

"He didn't dare to talk about witches, did you hear that?"

Yang Ce said to everyone: "What Matsuura said just now is that the witch will solve it by herself at night, but this round is because the witch jumped out, which turned into the current situation of strong confrontation. If you don't talk about witches, then I will Let's talk. Two witches come out, one gives silver water to the killing card, and the other gives silver water to the other prophet."

"Since this is the case, it depends on the situation. There is no other witch dancing on the field, so I think the witch must be between these two people, right? Let's not count the prophet, let's calculate from the perspective of the witch, If Lao Yu is a real witch, then Matsuura is the prophet of Yinshui, right, with a high status, so Andrew must be that jumping wolf?"

Yang Ce continued to analyze: "Let's look at it the other way around. If you think Todo Sakura is a real witch, yes, someone will definitely recognize her. Then Megan is her witch's silver water. The werewolf killed Megan last night, right? , Is Andrew the wolf who sent Yinshui to kill? Is Megan a wolf? We can still decide in the next round, because her speech is too sloppy, but have you found out? No matter which witch you stand on, you can only Get out Andrew."

"In the logic of the two witches, Andrew is not right. And all this time, they are making Matsuura's speech and reservations bad, but the two witches are desperately trying to get into his empty team, so his teammates are two A witch?"