The airline sounds high-end, with beautiful flight attendants and handsome flight attendants, and all the contacts are high-end business people. These things look good, but when it comes to making money, the airline is really not that good. If the price of oil If it is stable, it can still maintain profits. If the price of oil suddenly rises, losses are inevitable.
As mentioned before, before the 1990s, China's airlines were generally profitable. This was because China's industry was not yet developed and oil could meet domestic market demand, so the price was not high, even for tens of dollars. Air tickets can also be profitable.
However, with the opening up of marketization, oil is no longer supplied at an internal price. As an industry that is extremely sensitive to oil prices, if you cannot effectively avoid risks in this area, then entering this industry is simply asking for trouble.
As the domestic economy is affected by Zhao Yi's enterprises, the economic development speed is much faster than in the original time and space. The problem of oil self-sufficiency will come sooner, and the good life of airlines will become increasingly difficult.
As for supporting the massive construction of airports in China, Zhao Yi's purpose is to expand the passenger base. If he enters this industry, the competition will inevitably increase. If he cannot expand the market size, everyone will have a difficult time.
In order to increase this autonomy and controllability, Zhao Yi said: “If I participate in the preparation of a private airline, I hope to obtain independent oil supply rights.
My reasons are as follows. First, our country is not a big oil country. With the development of the country's industry and economy, the demand for oil will soar rapidly. You must know that we are a big country with a population of 1 billion. In order to maintain people's lives, To meet the needs of economic development and industrial economic development, oil must be imported on a large scale. I predict that this time will come around 1988.
At that time, oil prices will definitely be market-oriented. As an airline, the increase in oil prices will definitely bring about a decrease in profits. If the price increase is sustained, it can be moderately adjusted, but if it is a violent fluctuation, Then airlines will face continued losses.
In order to increase autonomy and controllability and continue to maintain the healthy development of the aviation industry, I think this is necessary. What we are talking about here is the needs of airlines.
In fact, this also involves the national energy security issues that our country will face in the future. Due to our huge population, when we become more and more dependent on international oil, our energy strategic security will face more and more tests.
But I can't help but develop the economy and improve people's livelihood. Therefore, in order to resolve these contradictions, I believe that we need to actively deploy foreign oil exploration and production businesses. This is to expand our country's oil sources and seize the initiative in the upstream of oil.
In addition, we also need to establish a national strategic petroleum reserve. When the international oil price is at a low point, we purchase a large amount of cheap crude oil and reserve it. When the international oil price is fluctuating violently or abnormally high, we can use it. To calm domestic oil demand and reduce the impact of oil on the domestic economy and people's livelihood. "
"I know that domestic oil extraction is carried out by state-owned enterprises, and domestic oil reserves are also owned by the state. As a private company, I have no intention to change this situation, but I think that private companies should be allowed to participate in overseas oil exploration and production and petrochemical industry in China. There is nothing wrong with refining.
There are two reasons for the same. The first point is to expand my country’s oil source channels and increase my country’s oil security. The second point is to actively mobilize private capital to solve the current dilemma of state-owned funds and release the vitality of the private economy.
Of course, these private economic activities still need to obey the national strategic plan and are a useful supplement to our country's future oil sources. "
"At present, our country's private economy is not strong and may not be able to compete with overseas oil giants, and its risk-taking ability is weak, so they are not allowed to participate unconditionally. After all, if the losses overseas are too large, it will be harmful to the domestic economy.
So my idea is to set up entry barriers, let them pool funds to enter this industry, and the risks can also be shared.
There is also the issue of petrochemical industry. We all know that petrochemical industry is not only a high-tech industry, but also a capital-intensive industry and an industry with pollution risks.
How to reduce risks in this area, especially the risks of low efficiency and high pollution, I think it is also necessary to integrate forces to avoid small workshop-style development, resulting in a cluster of low-tech products, fierce competition, and serious environmental pollution.
Therefore, it is not only necessary that the capital scale must meet the standards, but also that the petrochemical technology must meet the standards, especially the production of petrochemical products must be carried out in accordance with the actual needs of the country's petrochemical products.
The above is the issue of oil safety that I associate with the airline incident. Although it is not part of the topic of this meeting, now that I think of it and it has a certain relationship with aviation, I can't help but say it.
Although the current domestic oil production can meet the current domestic demand, I think you should also have a report on the growth trend of my country's oil demand in recent years. I can responsibly say that this trend will accelerate.
Those who do not plan for the overall situation are not enough to plan for a region, and those who do not plan for the future are not enough to plan for the moment. Only by preparing early and formulating plans can we nip problems in the bud. "
Although Zhao Yi has some personal interests in making this suggestion, he is more mainly worried about our country's future energy. We ordinary people may only know that the price of gasoline has increased again, and three barrels of oil have lost money. Little do we know that in order to ensure the stability of domestic oil supply, they have done a lot of unprofitable or even loss-making cooperation, because compared to the increase in oil prices, it is more terrifying The problem is the shortage of oil.
In order not to be choked by the Strait of Malacca, we built an oil pipeline from XJ to Badal Port in Pakistan. You must know that there are high mountains in the middle. Maybe the cost of oil coming from Badal Port is higher than that of oil coming from the sea, but there is no way. If you don’t build this channel to prepare yourself, hostile foreign countries will teach you how to behave in minutes.
Petroleum is not only an energy source, but also a chemical product. Chemical products refined from petroleum are widely used in agriculture and industry. It can be said that gasoline and diesel are more like by-products. As a large agricultural country, our country is also a country with a large population. The fertilizers we produce are all derived from petroleum.
It can be said that my country's agricultural self-sufficiency is based on oil, and this kind of agriculture is called petroleum agriculture. It is hard to imagine that if there is a shortage of oil supply, it will lead to a shortage of fertilizers and pesticides, resulting in widespread harvest failures of agricultural products, which will cause trouble.
It is also due to the development of my country's industrial economy that the demand for oil is huge. Major international oil-producing countries have raised oil prices, causing my country's oil import prices to continue to increase. This is also why people engaged in agriculture will find that after 2000, the price of pesticides and fertilizers suddenly increased in my country.
Data shows that in the 1980s, oil prices were stable at around US$20 per barrel for a long time. Only in 1986, because Saudi Arabia was dissatisfied with its position as an oil regulator, American oil companies occupied a large amount of the oil market and increased production on a large scale, causing a short-term drop in oil prices. dropped to around $10 per barrel.
In the 1990s, the price of oil remained at around US$30 per barrel for a long time. Although our country's economy has made great achievements during this period, our country's self-sufficient oil still accounts for a high proportion, and its impact on the international oil market is still very limited.
After 2000, especially since China joined the WTO, its status as the world's factory has become more and more stable, resulting in a significant increase in oil demand. It was during this period (2003~2008) that oil prices soared, and oil prices in 2003 After exceeding US$30/barrel in 2008, it reached a maximum of US$147/barrel in 2008.
The surge in oil prices during this period was not only due to the huge increase in my country's demand, but also due to some other factors. However, international capital can certainly predict my country's oil demand. They can unscrupulously speculate on oil prices and make my country pay for it.
Realizing this, Zhao Yi asked investment companies to invest moderately in some oil companies very early. In fact, this change did not change much. He can only say that he can ride on the soaring oil prices, which is of little significance to the country. big.
This requires the country to fundamentally change this situation, such as expanding oil sources in advance and establishing an oil reserve mechanism, which are all effective risk prevention measures.
However, these require the state to step forward and inject national will. Private individuals can enter, but without state support, it will be difficult for private oil companies to go offshore.
After all, oil is not called black gold for nothing. For the sake of profit, the country where the oil fields are located may betray its trust at any moment, and various despicable methods will emerge in endlessly. (End of chapter)