"Minister of Finance Yingjiang called us a few days ago and invited us to discuss some economic issues. The specific information is not clear yet. Why don't we all discuss what kind of medicine they sell in the gourd," said the counselor.
Hearing this, Zhao Yi knew what was going on. He thought that discussing the issue of dollar depreciation had little to do with our country. Although we have a huge trade surplus, we are not involved in many organizations.
In other words, our country is currently out of touch with the world economy. If Zhao Yi's companies had not relied on advanced technology and complete sales channels, foreign trade would not have developed so fast.
"I would like to say that my country has only been reforming and opening up for a few years, and the main economy has not yet been fully integrated into the world economy. It has not even joined many world economic cooperation organizations. There is no need to discuss world economic issues with us. "said a leader.
"You can't say that. Although we have not joined many economic organizations, our country's export scale is already very large, and the growth rate is also very impressive, which will inevitably involve the world economy.
I guess it was for this reason that they invited us to participate in their discussion meetings. " Another leader said.
When everyone heard what the leader said, they all nodded and agreed.
Although from the perspective of political relations, the domestic economy seems to be weakly connected to the world economy, there is such a thing as Zhao Yi, who has opened the door to exports around the world by relying on hard power.
"But what economic issues are we discussing? Do you have any ideas?" asked the first assistant.
"I think there are several possibilities. The first possibility is to establish closer economic cooperation. After all, our country's GDP is now the second in the world and it is no longer as unknown as before.
High-tech products account for a large proportion of our exports. Although we have not signed a specific economic and trade agreement and the tariffs on both sides are relatively high, high-tech products have a great advantage.
I think they also hope that we will lower tariffs to facilitate the export of their products to our country. In the past, the economy was relatively poor. After all, the market is limited. Now it is the second largest in the world. Although it is still far behind per capita, it can be deployed in advance.
The second possibility is to limit the scale of trade between the two sides. Now our country's trade surplus is getting larger and larger. Although it intends to increase the import of raw materials, this surplus has not narrowed much.
In this case, Eagle Sauce, which has the largest trade deficit, must be dissatisfied. According to this trend, the damage to the Eagle Sauce economy will become greater and greater, and they must take some measures.
The third possibility is to discuss the exchange rate issue between the two sides. The reason is still the same as above, the trade surplus issue. They may want to control the growth of my country's exports by manipulating the exchange rate issue.
An increase in the exchange rate means that domestic production costs will increase, and the prices of export products will also increase, which is very harmful to the growth of exports.
Especially for low-end export products, due to the high exchange rate, the export speed has not grown as fast as we expected. If the exchange rate continues to increase, their exports will be even more difficult. "
Not to mention, when Zhao heard what the leader said, he highly agreed. These possibilities were all on point. Without knowing the specific situation, they had already made close guesses about the matter.
"Of the three possibilities you analyzed, only the first one is beneficial to both parties, while the remaining two are not good for us. The only one who profits is probably Yingjiang.
Do you have any thoughts on this? How to deal with these three possibilities? Discuss the issues in advance to avoid being passive during the meeting. "The chief assistant asked.
Zhao Yi originally planned to speak, but after thinking about it, he decided to listen to the speeches of these leaders. Judging from their analysis, they had seen the essence of the problem, so there was no need for him to step forward and say anything.
"Although there are three possibilities, I think the latter two possibilities are higher. No matter what the reason is, whether it is due to high technology or low labor costs, it is our country that has accounted for the largest share of international trade in these years. More cheaper.
According to Reagan's economic policies during his administration, he advocated the economic theoretical concepts of the supply school. In terms of finance, he advocated a balanced budget and opposed deficit fiscal policies.
These economic policy propositions were implemented well during his first term, the economy also made great progress, and social wealth overall increased.
But looking at it now, the government's finances are now experiencing twin deficits for the first time, which is seriously inconsistent with Reagan economics. This may also be the reason why the government is anxious.
Therefore, from an analysis point of view, the purpose of the government should be to reduce the trade deficit and fiscal deficit. If it wants to solve the trade deficit, it can only achieve its goal by manipulating the exchange rate and raising tariffs.
However, the tariffs between us are already very high, and the possibility of raising tariffs is relatively low. Moreover, Reagan economics is generally opposed to raising tariffs.
Even if the tariffs on our country are increased, although it will cause very large losses to us, the impact on the people and enterprises of Eagle Sauce should be greater.
This is determined by the structure of my country's export products, because among our products, irreplaceable high-tech products account for a large proportion, and raising tariffs can only increase the production costs of their companies and the consumption costs of the people.
Even if they don't care and even want to use this to develop their own high-tech industries, we can also raise tariffs and their exports to us will also be hit.
Besides, our country's economy is already quite large, and the market size is also very considerable. If they do this, their domestic consortiums probably won't agree, and it goes against their interests.
Then the remaining one is the exchange rate. Lowering the U.S. dollar exchange rate is relatively mild compared to raising tariffs. This can increase the competitiveness of export products of hawk sauce and reduce the trade deficit problem.
Moreover, as the export of hawk sauce products increases, companies will pay more taxes, and the fiscal deficit of hawk sauce will be alleviated. Therefore, lowering the US dollar exchange rate should be the most feasible way for them. "
Zhao Yi was really shocked when he heard the speech of the leader in charge of finance. After analyzing it, it was very clear that he wanted to lower the US dollar exchange rate.
If Yingjiang unilaterally announces a lower exchange rate without consulting other major economies, it will have no effect, because other major economies can also lower the exchange rate accordingly.
Therefore, if Yingjiang wants to lower the exchange rate of the US dollar, it must discuss with these countries. At this time in the previous life, our country's economic aggregate was still very low and it was not considered a major economic country. It is normal that it did not come to them.
Things are different now. Although GDP per capita is very low and it is still a developing country, the total amount cannot be underestimated. In particular, the scale of foreign trade has been growing year after year.
If China is not involved, the effect of lowering the exchange rate of the US dollar will be greatly reduced. Zhao Yi had thought of this before, but he was just lucky.
Now that something has happened, we must find a way to solve this problem. It is impossible to refuse directly. After all, he is still the boss, whether it is military or economic.
If we are still like before and develop ourselves behind closed doors, of course there is no problem. If we refuse, we will refuse. Now we need to integrate into the world economy. As the leading brother of the West, we still have to listen to what Yingjiang says.
In other words, the appreciation of the RMB relative to the US dollar is already a high probability event, so how can we use other methods to reduce the impact of the increase in the RMB exchange rate and avoid a blow to our economy.
"my country's reform and opening up is a basic national policy, and the integration of the domestic economy into the world economy is an unchangeable goal. If the U.S. dollar exchange rate drops significantly, it will be very detrimental to our country's economic development.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar should be inevitable. We are not yet qualified to refuse, so the next discussion is about how to deal with it.
In what way can we not only meet some of the requirements of the Eagle Sauce Government, but also reduce the harm caused by it? If there is a way to turn the crisis into safety, that would be even better. "The chief assistant said.
After hearing the words of the first assistant, the scene felt dull. After all, it is not that simple to solve this problem. It will be difficult to get along with him for a while. There is no effective way.
Some people at the scene closed their eyes and meditated, some drank tea silently, and some simply took out their cigarettes and started smoking on the spot. In short, they did not stand up to express their opinions.
This is not to blame them, but they simply can’t think of a good solution for a while. Many of them are actually not from an economic background, so they are a little helpless when facing this problem.
Time passed by, but no one came out to speak. After looking around, the chief assistant directly named Zhao Yi. Who said he was the youngest at the scene, and he also had the greatest financial achievements.
In the absence of anyone else speaking, the only thing left to do was to mention his name.
Seeing that the chief assistant asked his name to speak, Zhao Yi stopped pretending, coughed twice and said: "Actually, there are some ways to deal with it.
As analyzed previously, there are three possibilities for changing the trade situation between my country and Eagle Sauce. Through analysis, the exchange rate issue should be the most likely.
Then when we negotiate, we can negotiate these three issues together to achieve a result that is as beneficial to us as possible.
The first is the issue of joining trade organizations, especially the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Due to historical reasons, our economic ties with the world are relatively weak, and many international trade organizations have not joined. This is very detrimental to my country's trade development.
In the past, if we wanted to join, we had to accept many harsh conditions, and we might not be able to join. This time, while Yingjiang has something to ask of us, we can talk about it.
Since they recognize that we are a major economy, they must give us a corresponding identity. If we have not joined relevant trade organizations, it really does not match our identity.
I think as long as we bring this issue up and include it in the negotiation agenda and negotiate together, there is a high probability that it will be passed.
If these trade organizations do not accept us, it means that we are not a major economy at all, and there is no need to participate in exchange rate negotiations. I think all leaders should understand what I mean.
Since we want to join a trade organization, tariff-related issues will definitely be involved. According to the principles of international trade, as a developing country, we have certain preferential conditions, and we must strive for this aspect.
Of course, even if we join these trade organizations, there will be some preferential treatment for our country in terms of tariffs, but accordingly, we must also open our market, which is inevitable.
But judging from the overall economic situation in our country, opening up all at once would be very harmful to us. The reform of state-owned enterprises is in progress and has not yet been completely completed. If wild beasts are introduced at this time, it will cause great chaos.
To put it bluntly, most of the state-owned enterprises in our country are unable to resist their invasion. When the time comes, there will be a collapse of domestic enterprises. Once there is a collapse, our market will be left to their own devices in the future.
Therefore, when negotiating, try to strive for relatively loose conditions, gradually open up relevant fields and industries, and achieve step-by-step opening up to the outside world. Then we can deal with some problems relatively calmly.
If the above goals are achieved, it will be very beneficial to our country's economic development. Even if we suffer some losses on the exchange rate issue, we can still make up for it.
Finally, there is the issue of exchange rate. Whether the exchange rate appreciates or not is actually determined by the economic strength of both parties.
Under natural conditions, exchange rate changes are relatively moderate, the impact on the economy will not be so severe, and the economic structure can adapt.
Since the government plans to use the exchange rate this time, it is a human intervention. Therefore, the increase or decrease in the exchange rate should be much greater than before.
Therefore, we must try to extend the time during negotiations and cannot increase the RMB exchange rate in a short period of time, otherwise it will have a huge impact on the domestic economy.
Try to keep the curve as close to the natural growth curve as possible, so that our country's economy can adapt to this exchange rate change and will not cause major economic chaos. "
In Japan's previous life, the yen appreciated too quickly and too quickly. In just a few years, the yen exchange rate doubled. Even though Japan had a very good foundation at the time, it could not withstand such a saucy operation. Everyone knows the final result. .
Our country's current economic situation is much worse than Japan's. If we follow Japan's growth rate, the consequences will be even more serious than Japan's.
At least Japan can still maintain the dignity of a developed country. Although its economic growth is slow and may even experience a slight negative growth, it cannot be denied that it is a developed country.
Our country is not yet a developed country, and its per capita GDP is only one-tenth that of other countries. The gap is very huge. It would be a very bad thing if the economic development momentum stops.
After listening to Zhao Yi's words, everyone present nodded and agreed with his story. However, these were only directional methods. Although they had a guiding role, they lacked specific details of operation.
"Mr. Zhao is right, we can prepare relevant information in this direction, and when the time comes to negotiate, we can be targeted.
But if Mr. Zhao has any detailed suggestions, please tell us and give us some reference. asked the senior advisor.
After hearing what the counselor said, everyone immediately turned their attention to Zhao Yi. They also wanted to hear what Zhao Yi had to say. After all, he did have a good hand in the economy.
Seeing everyone looking at him, Zhao Yi smiled bitterly and said: "The senior minister is looking up to me. I am not a professional when it comes to negotiations, and I don't have any good opinions or suggestions.
But I think as long as we have as detailed data as possible, it will be beneficial to have a sense of proportion in the negotiations.
However, I do have some opinions on how to deal with the domestic economy. I don’t know if they are right, but speaking out may inspire everyone’s thinking.
We all know that if foreign companies enter the Chinese market, the first ones should be some large multinational companies, which have both capital and technical strength.
If we don't make some arrangements, entering our country will be like entering an uninhabited land. As for our state-owned enterprises, except for monopolistic enterprises, other enterprises will simply not be able to compete with them in the fierce market.
What to do? I think there are two aspects to deal with. One is to increase the capital strength and technical strength of state-owned enterprises. These are the hard power of enterprises. As long as this aspect is strengthened, they will not be unable to fight back, and those who fail will not be defeated. It will be soon.
Most state-owned enterprises in our country are relatively small in scale, relatively backward in technology, and severely lacking in capital. It can be said that they cannot compete at all in this state.
Therefore, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the reform of state-owned enterprises, strengthen the integration of enterprises in the same field, and strive to create a group of enterprises with industry influence.
The second aspect is to increase the adaptability of domestic enterprises to marketization. Our reform and opening up have not been long ago, and marketization has not been implemented for a long time. Some fields are still in the state of planned economy.
In such an environment, most domestic enterprises are not market-oriented enough, and they are very unfavorable whether in the domestic competitive environment or in the foreign competitive environment.
Therefore, we must speed up the marketization of the domestic economy. Before the country opens, we must allow them to have a certain degree of adaptability so that they will not panic when the time comes. "
At present, the reform of state-owned enterprises is already underway, but it mainly focuses on the management of state-owned enterprises, hoping to increase the operational vitality of state-owned enterprises.
If we do not open the country, there is actually no problem in doing so. After all, things need to be done step by step and cannot be rushed.
But now that we are facing this matter, in order to strive for greater benefits and reduce the resistance to joining the international trade organization in the future, we have moved the time forward many years.
If we continue to reform state-owned enterprises at the current speed and intensity, to be honest, it will be too late. This is what Zhao Yi emphasized. Strong medicine must be used, otherwise many fields will be dominated by foreign capital. (End of chapter)