The topic of the previous meeting was about the financial architecture design of digital currency, which requires very professional financial knowledge. The speakers were basically central bank staff and related domestic financial experts.
Although Zhao Yi also has strong financial knowledge and many ideas, he has no intention of speaking. He just listens quietly to the financial experts at the scene speaking freely.
Financial design sometimes does not matter whether it is good or bad. It depends on the purpose of the ruler. Therefore, what he thinks is good may not necessarily be good, and what he thinks is bad may not necessarily be bad.
His current role is only as a technology provider. If it is a technical problem, he can help answer it. As for other things, he has no intention of participating.
Now that the digital currency has passed the relevant internal tests, it means that the technical problems have been solved, the difficult links have been cleared up, and there will not be too many problems at the technical level as a whole.
Even if the test scope is expanded or trial operation is carried out in the future, there will still be some minor problems, and major problems should not exist. Anyway, he did not see any major hidden dangers from the relevant work logs provided by Fanxing Software Company.
According to the staff of the central bank, the early promotion of digital currency adopted a retail model, and the purpose was to replace cash and replace the current position of banknotes in daily life.
As for whether a wholesale model will be provided in the future, we have to wait and see. The main purpose of the wholesale model is to replace deposit reserves and be able to perform operations in the financial field.
For example, transfers between bank accounts, securities investments, etc. These are far from ordinary people's daily lives and belong to the category of financial operations between institutions.
As for the issue of overseas renminbi, central bank staff concluded that digital renminbi will not be issued overseas for the time being, at least until the digital renminbi operates smoothly domestically and the wholesale model is launched.
The retail model is relatively simple. Anyway, all citizens in our country have a unified financial identification code with the central bank, and all residents’ accounts at commercial banking institutions are linked to the unified financial identification code of their central bank.
All that needs to be done now is to hang a personal digital wallet under the central bank's unified financial identification code. Residents do not even need to operate it themselves, the central bank will generate it for them.
If residents want to use their bank account funds, they only need to transfer the account funds under their central bank's unified financial identification code to their personal digital wallet.
As long as there is an amount in their personal digital wallet, they can make consumption payments in their daily life, which is very convenient.
The converse is also the same. Transfers between users' personal digital wallets are also transferred to the personal digital wallets under the unified financial identification code of the respective central bank, and then can be transferred to the commercial bank account under the unified financial identification code as needed.
There are no problems with these on a technical level, but it does not mean that they can be fully promoted immediately, because there is still a step to evaluate the financial impact of digital renminbi.
This financial impact is mainly to assess whether the digital renminbi will expand or contract the domestic currency. If it is implemented without hesitation from the beginning, it is likely to cause great financial turmoil.
As we all know, the banknotes we usually use belong entirely to ourselves. This is different from the funds in bank accounts. Banks can use them to lend and earn interest differences, while users can use the money stored in the bank to earn interest.
No interest will accrue when paper money is left in the hands of an individual, which means that the money in a personal digital wallet cannot be used for lending by commercial banks. It belongs to M0 currency, which is the base currency.
The banknotes in hand do not have a financial expansion effect. One dollar can only have one dollar of impact. Since the currency in the bank account can be loaned, the loan funds are actually still stored in the bank, and the bank can use it to lend.
After so many rounds of lending, the original one dollar may have the effect of seven dollars, and the definition of M1 is to add demand deposits and check deposits to M0.
It can be seen from this definition that a considerable part of the seven dollars generated by one dollar is deposited in commercial banks in the form of current deposits or check deposits, so the number of M1 is definitely much larger than M0.
As for the following M2, M3, etc., we will not continue to discuss them. Anyway, in terms of currency digital scale, the larger the number after M, the greater the total scale.
When I held banknotes in the past, the hundreds or thousands of dollars in my hand might not be deposited into a bank account again to earn interest until they were used up in daily life. This part of the funds would not generate expansion funds.
In fact, among the private sector, the scale of these funds is not small. Although individuals only have tens or hundreds of yuan in their hands, the total amount nationwide is still very considerable.
If digital currency is promoted on a large scale, the most extreme solution would be to abolish the circulation of banknotes. Since the operation from bank accounts to personal digital wallets is much more convenient than before, there is no conclusion on how people will choose by then.
If people don't mind the trouble and transfer as much money as they need to their personal digital wallets, then compared to the era of paper money, the scale of funds entering bank accounts will be larger.
Then banks can use more currency for lending. After several rounds of lending, it will lead to an increase in funds on the market, and in severe cases, it may even lead to inflation.
In turn, everyone should also understand that because personal wallets are very convenient for holding funds, unlike banknotes, it is very inconvenient and unsafe to hold large amounts of funds in your hands.
If a large amount of funds are transferred from a bank account into a personal digital wallet, then the bank cannot use this part of the money, and it cannot be used for lending.
The M0 funds that can be lent are reduced, and naturally the funds that banks can lend out are reduced. This reduction is not a one-to-one reduction, but a multiple reduction, which will lead to a lack of money supply in the market and form currency deflation.
Therefore, when promoting, we cannot rush for success and must promote it step by step. As Zhao Yi mentioned before, it is unrealistic and not a safe approach to replace existing banknotes in circulation in the market in a short period of time.
First of all, digital currency is still very unfamiliar to the common people. Even the online payment system has only been vigorously promoted in the past few years and has not yet reached the level of universal popularity. Many people in rural areas and border areas do not know that such a thing exists.
Most people are resistant to things they have never seen before. Compared with a bunch of numbers, banknotes can bring a greater sense of security to people, so promotion will not happen overnight. If the people do not cooperate, it cannot be enforced.
If the vast majority of people across the country are accustomed to using digital currency in their daily lives, and only a small number of people still use paper money, semi-mandatory implementation is still possible.
It is not wise to take coercive measures before it has started. The best way is to make people willing to use digital currencies.
To achieve this, it is necessary to show that digital currency has more advantages than paper money in daily life. Otherwise, why should people use digital currency.
The advantages he can think of are reflected in the following aspects:
The first is convenience. When paying with banknotes, you need to carry a wallet with you all the time. It is better to have less money, but it is very troublesome to carry more money. However, with digital currency, you only need to carry a personal payment terminal.
I mentioned the watch-style digital currency payment terminal earlier. If you don’t like the hassle of a watch, you can also use a visual digital currency payment card. It is the size of a bank card and the funds inside can be viewed at any time. Currency transactions can be carried out by touching the two cards. .
As for mobile phones, not to mention, you can download the central bank's personal digital wallet application or use the online payment system.
Associate your personal digital wallet with the online payment system and conduct payment transactions through the online payment system. Now Xinghan Technology Company is vigorously promoting the online payment system in China, hoping to involve offline payment transactions.
The second is security. Although offline point-to-point payments may also have the problem of digital currency loss, after all, there is no data exchange with the central bank's unified financial wallet under the code.
But tracing it back is relatively simple. As long as the payer's personal payment terminal is connected to the Internet, the relevant transfer records can be found, and the flow of digital currency can be traced back.
If the digital currency is used by others, it can be found out immediately. Therefore, under normal circumstances, even if it is picked up by others, it cannot be used. If it is used, it will be discovered immediately, which reduces the possibility of theft.
This situation is for digital payment terminals that are not connected to the Internet, such as the digital currency payment card mentioned above. It must be operated on a bank teller machine before the digital currency information on the card can be synchronized with the central bank's personal digital wallet.
If a mobile phone is always connected to the Internet, there will be no such problem. Basically, when making a point-to-point payment, the data will be synchronized with the central bank's personal digital wallet immediately.
Each digital currency will have a unique identification code. The flow of digital currency can be monitored through these identification codes, which has a natural advantage in combating currency crimes.
It is not without problems to hang a personal digital wallet under the unified financial identification code of the central bank, because a huge amount of payment transactions are generated all over the country every moment, and the amount of data and access are massive, which will bring problems to the central bank's system. Enormous pressure.
Therefore, the personal digital currency under the unified financial identification code of the central bank belongs to the root digital wallet and is the final destination of the personal digital wallet.
Under the central bank's personal digital wallet, there will also be several copies of personal digital wallets, which are held by major commercial banks and other institutions and units qualified to operate personal digital wallets.
Users normally use these digital wallets. The purpose of this is to share the pressure faced by the central bank's digital currency system, and then these personal digital wallet copies will be synchronized to the central bank's personal digital wallet when the system is not busy.
In fact, the central bank does not need to set up a personal digital wallet on its own side, and leaves it all to commercial banks and other institutions as agents. The main purpose of this is to more conveniently monitor the flow of funds and other related data, and it is also a backup.
In fact, this kind of personal digital wallet copy does not require users to go to the relevant bank to open it.
As long as the user transfers the funds from the bank account under his unified financial identification code to his personal wallet, a copy of his personal digital wallet will be automatically created for him under the bank to which the account belongs.
Then if the funds spent come from these copies, then all data processing will be given priority to the banking institutions to which these personal digital wallets belong, allowing them to process the relevant transaction data on their behalf.
Of course, in this case, there will definitely be several digital wallet copies with small amounts of funds in them, but not enough for one transaction. Then you can also use the consolidation operation to return the change in each digital wallet copy to a certain digital wallet copy. .
The advantage of this is that it weakens the existence of the central bank. The financial institutions that users directly face are still secondary institutions such as commercial banks. This allows the central bank to return to its essential business, but it does not involve too much personal business.
Second, it can greatly reduce the pressure caused by data exchange. For example, most data exchanges between personal digital wallet copies and bank accounts are within the bank, so the pressure of data exchange is much less.
“Some time ago, we conducted internal tests on system stability, theoretical reliability, functional availability, and risk controllability, and the results were very good.
Fanxing Software Company is responsible for the entire digital currency development and system construction. It has to be said that as an international software giant, Fanxing Software Company has fully demonstrated their R&D strength in this aspect. "
Hearing that the staff of the central bank spoke highly of the work of Fanxing Software Company, Zhao Yi, who was sitting below, smiled knowingly. With the full set of digital currency technology he provided, if Fanxing Software Company can't do it well, then no other software company can do it well. The company can do well.
Although Fanxing Software Company's technological innovation capabilities are average in his opinion, its execution capabilities are absolutely top-notch. Basically, all the tasks he assigns to Fanxing Software Company can be completed on time or even ahead of schedule.
Therefore, this time the research and development of the digital currency system was handed over to Fanxing Software Company. He was very relieved. Apart from providing relevant technical information at the beginning, he basically didn't worry about anything.
Especially in recent years, my country's software field has been outstanding in the world. This has led to my country's universities spending more energy on cultivating software engineering talents. The scale of software talents graduating every year is very impressive.
In addition to college graduates from other majors who have transferred to the field of software development, my country's software talents have greatly expanded in the past two years, adding a wave of talents to Fanxing Software Company, Block Software Company and other major Internet companies under its umbrella.
Although in the past year, Fanxing Software Company's traditional enterprise management software business has achieved great development in China, and their autonomous driving technology is also intensively developed.
However, there are still enough manpower invested in the construction of the central bank's digital currency system. It is a remarkable achievement to be able to build the entire system in about a year.
You must know that in this era, apart from the digital currency technical information provided by Zhao Yi, they had no other reference, and the technical information he provided was all systematic and theoretical.
Transforming these system theories into real things is not an easy task. Being able to complete it in such a short time also relies on the efficient and intelligent development tools he provides.
“What we need now is to conduct relevant tests on the circulation convenience and scenario applicability of the digital currency system. This requires the cooperation of more departments and units.
As for the convenience of circulation, Academician Zhao previously promised to provide more consumer payment solutions. At present, it seems that there is not much progress. We hope that Academician Zhao can explain this issue.
As for scene applicability, we are preparing to open limited testing qualifications for digital currencies to some residents, and also invite some merchants to cooperate with the testing. Only during actual use can problems be better discovered. "The central bank staff said.
When Zhao Yi heard his name being called, he touched his nose unconsciously, feeling a little embarrassed. Originally, he thought that even if the digital currency system was built, he should proceed with the next step of testing carefully.
Of course, there was also the problem of his previous underestimation. Although he knew that smartphones would sell well, he did not expect that the sales volume would far exceed his expected figures.
He previously thought that it was an exaggeration for three smartphone companies to sell 100 million units in less than half a year. After all, smartphones in this era are not cheap, and wages are not as high as in previous generations.
It’s just that he seriously underestimated the love of global consumers for epoch-making smartphones, allowing three smartphone companies to sell more than 260 million units in less than half a year.
According to this trend, in the next two to three years, sales data can remain at around 500 million units per year. If prices are further reduced, sales volume is likely to further increase.
Like smartphones, the update speed is much faster than that of computers. Basically, large-scale updates start in about three years, so when the coverage is almost completed, there will be a sales market size of more than 300 million every year. .
Next year, the three smartphone companies will release a new generation of smartphones with further improved configurations and some new technologies. By then, the previous generation of smartphones will be sold at reduced prices.
The reason for selling at reduced prices is, on the one hand, to provide better coverage so that consumers who are originally price-sensitive can also afford it.
On the other hand, it is destocking. This destocking is not only the destocking of the complete machine, but also the destocking of related parts. After all, most of the parts are produced by brother companies, and the loss will be very big if they are not used up.
And after more than a year of large-scale production, the cost of older-generation parts has been reduced to the lowest. Even if it is sold at a reduced price, the profit margin is not necessarily lower than that of new machines.
In addition, salaries in our country have risen too fast in the past year, which makes the people feel uneasy and urgently need to convert money into real goods to avoid leaving money in their hands.
Zhao Yi intends to speed up the popularization of smartphones in China. On the one hand, it will help the faster popularization of Internet applications related to smartphones in my country. On the other hand, it will help the development of my country’s mobile communications business.
Therefore, in terms of supply, domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and there is basically no shortage of products in the country. Huawei Technologies, in particular, supplies the most domestically, after all, their smartphones are the cheapest.
As for Polaris's smartphones, a larger proportion of them are supplied from abroad. After all, their prices are the highest and are a bit expensive for domestic people.
According to his original idea, he hoped that by the middle of next year, there would be a certain number of smartphones in the country, and then when testing related digital currencies, smartphones could be used directly as payment terminals for testing.
And at that time, the effect of the online payment system of Xinghan Technology Company was gradually showing, and it was used quite frequently in daily life in China.
In this way, both the testing cost and consumer acceptance will be in a relatively good state, so related work will be postponed. (End of chapter)