In the past year, although we have experienced many things, it has been relatively stable overall. Especially in terms of the world situation, there have not been some situations like in the previous life.
The most eye-catching one is naturally the plummeting stock market of rb. At present, their stock market seems to be still strong, but the increase has been very slow, and even occasionally there has been a slight downward adjustment.
This has shown that the Japanese stock market has reached its peak and will face the risk of falling next. It depends on how long it can hold on.
As early as the beginning of last year, he reminded Sunflower Investment Company and other financial companies under his umbrella to pay close attention to RB's stock market and make plans in advance.
Many of their companies began to implement retreat plans one after another after August this year, but the actions were very slow, mainly due to two reasons.
The first one is that the stock market was still in a stage of rapid rise at that time. There was no need to ship goods too fast. If you ship goods slowly, you can get a higher transaction price and make more money.
The second is that their capital scale is very large. If they are released too quickly and too urgently, problems are likely to occur. The most serious thing is that the stock market will crash prematurely, which is not good for anyone.
As for why they were not sold before the peak, the main reason is that they are relatively large and difficult to clear out in a short time, and even cannot escape from behind.
In this case, they would rather make less money, but also ensure that the interests they have obtained are not damaged, so they spent more than 4 months and slowly shipped the goods, which was the safest way.
At that time, when the "Plaza Accord" had not been signed, the Japanese stock market was only about 13,000 points, and Sunflower Investment Company had already invested a large amount of funds into the Japanese stock market and their real estate market.
Since my country's exports of automobiles and electronic products were booming at that time, it had a great impact on Japan's development in these fields, and the export business was not as prosperous as in previous lives.
So the stock market at that time was actually at 13,000 points, and many people were not optimistic about the stock market at that time. At this time, Sunflower Investment Company entered the market, causing many people who thought they were rational to start selling their stocks.
It was also for this reason that after they entered the rb stock market, they obtained a large number of stocks. Not only did they not put the stock market at risk of falling, it actually caused the stock market to rise significantly, reaching 14,000 points.
During this period, not many people followed the buying trend. Instead, taking advantage of the opportunity to sell at a "high price", many people quickly sold their stocks at the high price, allowing Sunflower Investment Company to successfully hold a large number of stock positions.
Later, after the Plaza Agreement was signed, more capital poured into RB, but the stocks that were active in the market were basically in the hands of Sunflower Investment Company. It was already impossible for them to get the chips at a relatively low price.
As a result, in order to obtain more stocks, they could only continuously increase the stock price, hoping to absorb the stocks of people who were not determined. From then on, the rb stock market was truly on the fast track.
With the rapid rise of the rb stock market, more and more capital has gathered in the stock market here, making the already fiery stock market even more crazy.
It’s just that this stage is a carnival of capital, most of which is dominated by foreign capital and supplemented by local financial capital, because at this stage, ordinary people actually don’t have much money.
If more people don't come in to participate, this is just a trick played by capital to entertain itself. When the price rises to a certain level, if there is no capital to continue to push it up, there will be an inflection point.
But Sunflower Investment Company not only invests in the stock market, they also invest heavily in the real estate market of RB. At first, they mainly used their own capital to acquire land, and the progress was not particularly fast.
Because at that time, most of their funds were invested in the RB stock market, and the short-term capital in their hands was subject to certain restrictions. In addition, Japanese bank credit was not so crazy at that time, and the interest rates were relatively high.
But even so, those who sold the land experienced an instant surge in wealth. After getting the money, they naturally needed an investment channel. The stock market happened to be in a state of skyrocketing at that time, so most of these funds went into the stock market.
It can be said that the entry of these funds allowed the rb stock market to continue to play at that time. If there had not been the entry of retail investors or the entry of more institutional capital, it would definitely not have been able to continue.
In Zhao Yi's opinion, this process is slightly crazier than in his previous life. After all, with the variable Sunflower Investment Company, it is inevitable that it will be crazier than in his previous life, but it is still within an acceptable range.
Until bank credit became more and more relaxed and bank credit interest rates became lower and lower, his financial companies began to play the empty-handed-white-wolf model and began to speculate on real estate projects mainly with bank credit and supplemented by their own funds.
It's just that at this stage, due to the limitations of its own funds, although it is more crazy than before, it is not completely like a wild horse that is uncontrollable.
Therefore, this stage is called the second stage by Zhao Yi. This stage is mainly manifested in the gradual warming of real estate, and a large amount of funds begin to pay attention to the real estate market. It is also at this stage that stock market capital also begins to rise more crazily.
By 1987, because his financial companies made early arrangements when the U.S. stock market crashed on Black Monday, they made a lot of profits, although some of the funds were still used for bargain hunting later.
But the cash in hand still amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. This is certainly nothing in a real enterprise, but it is completely usable capital, and it is no longer a small number in the financial market.
Most of this capital can only flow into the rb market, because they have completed the establishment of positions in the Japanese stock market, and the funds invested in this area are actually not much.
Most of the funds have entered the real estate market, and they have made full use of the leverage of bank credit. After the funds are amplified, the scale of the funds becomes even larger.
This is what Zhao Yi calls the third stage, which is also a very crazy stage. Due to the huge capital in their hands, the financial capital led by Sunflower Investment Company basically takes whatever they see and buys the houses they see.
This led to skyrocketing real estate prices, and many people became millionaires with a piece of land the size of a toilet. This was common at the time.
As a result, people in RB who suddenly became rich began to enjoy a luxurious life. At this stage, luxury brands are very easy to sell in RB, and various high-end products are simply the favorites of these nouveau riche.
Among them, the high-end products of his companies have also received very small profits. Each company has made a lot of money from the rb market. It does not look like the automobile and electronics industries have been hit at all.
In addition to purchasing high-value products such as luxury goods, they also invest a large amount of capital in stocks, which further boosts the prosperity of the stock market, causing more institutional capital to rush over as if they smell blood.
Land went from 972 trillion yen at the end of 1984 to 3,000 trillion yen at the end of the past year, an increase of more than 3 times, less than 2.5 times in the previous life, and even more crazy.
Since Sunflower Investment Company laid out its business very early, they have controlled 20% of the real estate market through various means, making them the most powerful speculators in this market.
When they shipped, they started at the beginning of last year. They initially withdrew from projects in poor locations because there was not much room for growth in these places.
Then he slowly began to sell the high-quality projects in his hands. This was even more warmly welcomed in the real estate market at that time, and he almost never failed.
In fact, the explosive development of the rb real estate market has attracted the attention of a lot of capital. However, the good locations have been taken over by Sunflower Investment Company in advance, and the rest are just leftovers.
This continuous sale of a large number of real estate projects has not only prevented price declines, but has further boosted the rise of the real estate market, because this is a rare opportunity for many capitals to intervene.
This also gives his financial institutions the opportunity to withdraw from the real estate market in an orderly manner. Although it is not yet the highest point of the real estate market, it is already satisfying to be able to make such a profit.
Although the overall increase here is less than 3 times, their funds are leveraged, and the overall leverage ratio is about 8 times, which means they have earned a price difference of 24 times. As for bank interest, it is optional.
Since it is troublesome to launch the real estate market, they tried their best to launch it before the end of last year. According to their data, the real estate market has basically been cleared.
Even if some land projects are left behind, they are still very valuable and can be easily sold. This makes the Japanese currency in their hands as high as 800 trillion yen.
Calculated based on the average exchange rate of 144 in 1989, it is more than 2.7 trillion US dollars. However, it is a very huge asset. It is impossible to withdraw all of RB, at least not in the short term.
So they are preparing to adopt the ant move method. They have withdrawn more than 500 billion US dollars so far, and according to the trend of the previous life, the yen still has room for further appreciation, so they are not particularly anxious to withdraw funds.
To be honest, he did not expect to be able to withdraw so much funds. It was also thanks to the fact that funds from all over the world entered Japan, resulting in Japan's foreign exchange reserves being very huge.
Therefore, it may not be convenient to withdraw these more than 500 billion US dollars in normal times, but under the current situation, there does not seem to be much pressure to withdraw. The foreign exchange reserves held by Japan can fully support it, and the exchange rate has not caused much change. .
These capitals are not rushed for investment, but are stored in cash at the HSBC branch. It is not cost-effective to invest now. Many assets have risen sharply. If you buy them, you will be taken advantage of.
At this point, his financial institutions have been liquidated from the rb real estate market. As for sporadic real estate projects, whether they are sold or retained, it will not affect the overall situation.
The stocks that started to be shipped slowly in August last year have not been cleared yet. By the end of last year, they had sold 80% of the market value of the stocks in their hands, leaving about 20% in hand.
According to their report, the remaining 20% will be cleared out in January this year, because at this point, they no longer care whether the stock market crashes.
The total market value of rb stocks has increased from 203 trillion yen in 1984 to about 1,200 trillion yen at the end of last year, an increase of 6 times, which is even crazier than the 4.4 times in the previous life.
It can be said that Japan now seems to have attracted an influx of capital from all over the world, and all capital wants to come in and get a share of the pie. Although they also know that this madness is unsustainable, they still cannot stop their bloodthirsty impulse.
The market value of the stocks purchased by his financial institutions accounted for 30% of the total market value. In other words, they made 300 trillion yen from it, which is also a huge number, equivalent to more than 2 trillion U.S. dollars. .
This money cannot all be withdrawn from Japan, and they do not plan to withdraw all of it, but are preparing to harvest another wave to make more profits.
Because they have a premonition that the stock market has almost reached its peak. The most important thing is that they have withdrawn so much money from the stock market, which has caused instability in the stock market and caused the stock market to lose its greatest foundation.
If there were not sporadic funds entering the market, hoping to catch the last bus, it would have collapsed by now. It can be said that the rb stock market is now a crater.
Now his financial institutions have begun to short-sell the RB stock market. Not only have they purchased short futures contracts, they have also begun to look for other financial institutions around the world to make bets.
Since you have already played so big, you don't mind playing even bigger. Although many financial institutions believe that the current rb stock market is very dangerous, no one knows when the danger will come.
Just because they don't know when the danger will come, many people still choose to trade the short contracts they throw out, just to bet that it won't collapse in the short term.
Since January, his financial institutions have searched almost all financial institutions around the world and offered very favorable conditions in order to make betting agreements with these financial institutions.
Although a financial institution is not very big, it can't handle the huge volume, so it still let them make a contract of more than 4 trillion US dollars, which is very bold.
This does not include the short futures contracts they purchased. The income from this part depends on how far the stock market index falls.
While they were busy doing this, they also borrowed a large amount of stocks, and they had to go to the extreme in short selling. In addition to betting and futures contracts, they also wanted to short stocks.
The number of borrowed stocks is also very large, because many stocks were sold by them before and are now borrowed by them. If they had not sold them before, it may still be difficult to borrow a large number of stocks.
In order to prevent stocks from rising against the trend, they are constantly selling the remaining stocks to maintain a relative balance in the stock market, and at the same time, they are constantly borrowing stocks.
This set of operations seems to be very simple, but due to the large scale, especially OTC transactions, it is more troublesome than on-site transactions, and the workload is very huge.
Without the backing of artificial intelligence, it would be almost impossible to complete such a large and intensive operation in a short period of time. Their on-site operations are basically done by artificial intelligence, and only off-site operations are done manually. .
If it weren't for the fact that they have too many financial institutions under their umbrella, many of them, although not large, have been active in the financial market and have gained the trust of many institutions without too much suspicion.
If a single institution does this, the financial institutions that bet against them will probably unite to deal with them. This is why they have so many vests.
After the rb stock market bubble burst in the previous life, it took 1992 to hit the bottom. This was too long for them. To avoid long nights and dreams, they naturally wanted to make the stock market hit the bottom as soon as possible.
As they gradually cleared out the remaining stocks in their hands this month, the stock market, which was originally relatively stable, has gradually begun to decline slightly. Although there has been a slight rebound, the overall trend is downward.
This is before they sell a large amount of borrowed stocks. The main reason why they did not do this is to see how well the stock market is able to withstand pressure. If the ability to withstand pressure is insufficient, it is time to start taking action.
At present, they are still borrowing stocks, and they have borrowed all the stocks that can be borrowed on the market. Anyway, for them, this cost is nothing at all.
If it is determined that the stock market's ability to withstand pressure has reached its limit, and all the OTC funds that can enter the market have entered, and no large-scale funds will come in to replenish the stock market, then it is time for them to start taking action.
Hong Kong real estate companies that previously entered the rb real estate market have basically withdrawn from rb. Even those companies that felt they still had potential, for the sake of caution, withdrew part of them to get some of the benefits.
As for these dubious real estate companies, he had no good solution. Since he didn't listen to advice, he was prepared to bear the losses caused by his choices.
Anyway, the funds they borrowed before are now gradually arriving, and there is no loss for him. All the money he should have earned has been earned. This kind of thing can only be done as soon as possible.
These Hong Kong real estate companies that have withdrawn are now starting to move to other real estate markets. No matter which market they go to, the Hong Kong and Macao markets are places where they have not done much.
However, a considerable part of the funds have entered the Baodao market, because the real estate policies implemented there are different from those in the mainland and belong to a completely market-oriented operation model.
Since China Housing Corporation has a very large business in the mainland and consumes a huge amount of funds, it does not have much funds to take care of it, so it is a promising market for a lot of funds.
Moreover, even if Chinese housing companies enter there, they will not be able to operate in the same way as Hong Kong and Macao, and they will not be able to do that. The difference between the two is still very big.
Land resources in Hong Kong and Macao are limited. Compared with the population of these two places, you will never suffer a loss if you buy land in large quantities. You can fully control the market and obtain long-term benefits.
However, compared with the land area and population of Baodao, resources are not tight at all. It is simply impossible to adopt a monopoly business model. If affordable housing is done like in the mainland, Chinese housing companies will not be profitable.
Because the price of land obtained in the mainland is very cheap, even if the rent price is very low, there is still a certain amount of profit. Coupled with the income from commercial real estate, there is still good profit to be made in general.
But in Baodao, doing this is like dancing with shackles, which is simply tying one's own hands and feet. Others make a lot of money according to the market-oriented method, while the Chinese housing company spends a huge price and makes a small profit. are not equal.
China Housing Corporation is a private enterprise, not a state-owned enterprise. Profitability is their most important consideration. If they cannot obtain sufficient benefits, it is better to quit.
Moreover, the infrastructure there is good. After all, the economic development there started relatively early, and there was not much room for Chinese housing companies to develop, so they simply did not enter.
Although they seem to be performing the functions of the government in the mainland and providing low-cost housing supply to the people, they also enjoy policy support, and the two complement each other.
In other places, if policy support cannot be obtained, there will naturally be no need to perform government functions. If Hong Kong Housing Corporation had not reached a near-monopoly in Hong Kong and Macao, it would not implement such a low-price rental policy.
After Zhao Yi read these reports, he was actually very shocked. Although he was also a person who had seen strong winds and waves, and money was really nothing to him, the gains this time gave him a big shock.
The original investment has now yielded close to US$5 trillion, which is much more than the last time Black Monday was planned, and the benefits obtained from the global financial market were much greater.
The current rb market can be described as affecting the direction of global funds. Only with a large influx of funds from all over the world can rb reap such rich rewards for his early layout.
This amount of money is almost equivalent to one year's GDP of Yingjiang. This shows how much money has entered rb around the world. If there were not huge funds entering, it would not be so crazy.
In addition, it is the result of rb's own credit expansion. Without the credit expansion, there would not be so many yen in the market, and it would be impossible for the prices of these assets to rise.
External funds only play a role in fueling the flames. The most important thing is internal economic policies, which cause the generation of asset bubbles. This is why the income of his financial companies can only be counted in Japanese yen at present, because it is basically impossible to convert all of them into US dollars. .
Even if the bubble burst in the previous life, RB still ranked second in the world for many years. The main reason is that their debts are all domestic debts, which can be slowly digested internally, and there is room for maneuver.
But now that so many yen are in his hands, it can be regarded as a foreign debt, because if these yen are forced to be exchanged for other currencies such as US dollars, the yen exchange rate will inevitably become extremely unstable and foreign exchange reserves will decrease rapidly.
It can even consume all their foreign exchange reserves. At that time, their currency will depreciate significantly and domestic assets will shrink significantly, leading to a second wave of shocks.
As for the foreign investors currently entering rb, there is no need to worry, because they are destined to lose money and cut their flesh here, and it is still unclear whether they will have some money left to go out.
It can be said that he has already grasped the economic lifeline of rb. If he wants to make trouble, relying on the small rb, he will not be able to withstand the torment. Whether he can maintain the current third position in the world is still open to question.
He had never thought that he could rely on financial operations to achieve such an extent that the economic lifeline of a country was completely in his hands. (End of chapter)