He is thinking more than just these. Now that all the money from the world is attracted to rb, what will be the consequences if this bubble bursts.
Now he has safely exited, and all he holds is real money, while other capital holds stock assets and real estate assets, which are all book assets.
There is definitely not so much capital in the world now that can take over such huge assets, which means that these assets are destined to be impossible to realize in a short period of time.
If the bubble bursts, it will be impossible to sell these assets by then. In the end, you will have to lose them in your own hands, watching the assets shrink sharply day by day and being powerless.
And because his financial institutions have borrowed a large amount of stocks, even if many institutions want to sell, they don't have many stocks in hand, making it even more difficult to exit and stop losses in time.
At that time, it may really be what he wishes. After the bubble bursts, it will definitely fall to the bottom. Even if the bubble bursts this time, it does not need the rb government to issue policies to actively pierce it. When it reaches the subsequent weak stage, it will burst on its own.
Because at that time, major institutions were aware of the danger and wanted to flee as soon as possible, but they did not have much funds to take over, which would form a catfish effect, with people scrambling to sell and try to be safe.
It's just that it's impossible to do it in the end. The more you sell, the more squeeze it will become. In the end, you can only get stuck in it and you may lose half of your stock's book assets.
What's even worse is yet to come. Those capital involved in long index futures contracts and over-the-counter betting will suffer heavy losses due to failed betting. This is even more severe than the plummeting stock market value.
No matter how the stock falls, there will always be a floor price, which can have a certain value to some extent. However, futures contracts and gambling agreements are different. They are zero-sum games, and the winner takes all.
As for whether he will default on his debts, he is not worried, because Sunflower Investment Company operates under the guise of various countries. At the level of these countries, losses here are compensated and administrative orders will not be used to intervene. market transactions.
If this is the case, when RB's bubble bursts, it won't just be RB's business. Financial markets around the world will suffer as well, and a large number of financial institutions are likely to collapse.
If his financial institutions succeed in short-selling contracts, another US$5 trillion in cash will be received, which adds up to about US$10 trillion in cash.
This can be regarded as a reshuffle of financial capital around the world. Although many financial institutions have huge amounts of cash, these funds belong to their customers, not the financial institutions themselves.
He couldn't even imagine how many financial institutions around the world would collapse by then. The global financial tsunami seemed to be right in front of him. Whether this would be good or bad for him, he still needed to carefully evaluate.
It is certainly a good thing for him personally, after all, these funds have entered his pocket, but the occurrence of the global financial crisis will inevitably affect his industrial export business and overseas operations.
At that time, these real economies will inevitably be affected. How big the impact will be is yet to be accurately judged. If the impact is large, what are the ways to avoid being too affected
This is an issue that needs to be considered by him. If there is a best-of-both-worlds approach, it will not only allow him to win in the capital market, but also prevent his real economy from having too much impact.
In fact, money in the world is certain, it just flows from other capital's hands to his own. Except for the collapse of asset prices, cash will not decrease significantly.
If it does not affect the normal operation of the world economy, then ordinary people's salaries will not be greatly affected, and naturally the impact on the real economy will be limited, especially on the export business.
To do this, it is actually very simple. He just needs to use the money he earns to buy assets. This is equivalent to vacating the cage for birds and letting other losing capital leave sadly. With his capital advantage, he can These assets can be successfully taken over.
After his financial institutions take over these assets, they can ensure the normal operation of financial capital, which will naturally not affect the operation of the real economy, allowing ordinary people to save their jobs.
As long as ordinary people keep their jobs and have money for consumption, it will naturally not affect the real economy under their control. This is considered the most ideal state.
However, it is impossible to have no impact at all. You can just try to reduce the impact to a minimum to avoid a devastating blow.
Because there are too many factors that affect the implementation of this plan. First of all, it is not just the acquisition that his financial institutions want to acquire. The problems they face may be more complicated.
Secondly, the acquisition cycle is generally very long. After the acquisition, the impact is estimated to have spread to the real economy, the financial crisis has spread, and the losses may be permanent.
The only thing that comforts him is that the domestic finance will not be greatly affected by the foreign financial crisis. The domestic economy is stable and the finance is not completely open.
If the world financial crisis hits my country's export business severely, we can only further increase basic investment in the country and pay more people's salaries to expand internal market demand.
This node just coincides with the implementation of the robot replacement plan. By then, our country's labor force will be unrestricted, per capita output will increase significantly, and there will not be great pressure to distribute more wages to the people.
At that time, the domestic scenery will be unique. No matter how strong the external storm is, the impact on the development of the domestic economy will be limited after all, and it will even accelerate the increase of our country's economy in the world's economic aggregate.
Coupled with the sharp fall in global asset prices, the huge funds he earned can be used to acquire these low-price assets, cutting leeks from the world again.
Although these assets do not belong to our country in name, they do belong to him, which means that they are essentially our country's overseas assets. It is very beautiful to think about it.
No wonder Yingjiang always liked to cause economic crises to other countries in his previous life. It was because the benefits involved were so great that he would harvest them all in a few years. It was so exciting.
It’s just that this time he played bigger, playing almost the whole world. The benefits are not comparable to ordinary financial crises, and the financial crises caused by nature are not comparable to conventional financial crises.
To be honest, he didn't want to play so big at first. At first, he just wanted to catch a ride and make a good profit. He had no other ideas.
Later, as I deepened my understanding and involvement in the international situation, I wanted to prevent Yingjiang from sucking the blood of RB and rejuvenate it, so I began to squeeze Yingjiang's capital so that it could not obtain enough benefits. It cannot replenish blood.
As a result, on Black Monday of 1987, we received a large amount of cash income, but there were no other satisfactory investment projects. Even if there were, we would not be able to digest such a large amount of funds for a while.
So I simply invested these capitals in RB. At this time, RB credit became more and more liberal. Naturally, the fire took advantage of the wind and started to set fire to the prairie fire.
The result is that both the real estate market and the stock market have grown wildly, attracting more and more international capital, which ultimately led to the current situation.
Now these huge assets, relying on efficient and precise operations, have been turned into cash and landed in his pocket, leaving a lot of bubble assets for other capital.
As long as this bubble bursts, a roaring tsunami will inevitably come. From RB, a country where capital is feasting on fire, it will spread directly to the whole world, and a storm will form.
Although a considerable part of this money will be used abroad, it will certainly not be all brought back to the country, because there is no shortage of foreign exchange in the country, and the influx of large amounts of external funds is not necessarily a good thing.
Domestic foreign exchange cannot be used directly and needs to be converted into local currency. This will lead to too much domestic foreign exchange, but the matching tertiary industry may not be able to keep up.
When the time comes, it will be more cost-effective to either keep the money in your own hands. In this case, it is better to invest outside and take advantage of the financial turmoil and shrinking assets to acquire valuable companies.
Either the money is invested, but the total amount of assets corresponding to it is not that large. In the end, it will inevitably cause inflation, and it will be a big inflation.
Because these funds come in and are equivalent to base currency. After a certain increase in the financial system, the amount of domestic market currency will further increase, which will not have substantial benefits for the domestic economy.
Although domestic financial expansion has also been carried out in the past two years, this expansion is consistent with industrial development. It is not used to purchase domestic assets, but to expand production and be able to produce products that match the monetary increment.
If so much currency enters the country and there are no matching new industries to accommodate it, the final result will be to drive up asset prices. The data may look good, but it won't be of much substantive help.
Especially when the money is taken into the country, there are not many assets to buy. He will definitely not buy the assets under his control. How can anyone buy their own assets? These assets are not listed on the market, and the valuation of the assets has no meaning.
As for the assets of state-owned enterprises, you can't just buy them if you want. There are not many state-owned enterprises listed now, and the assets of listed state-owned enterprises are actually in very average condition. The state does not allow good state-owned assets to be listed.
As for the domestic stock market, although it can accommodate a part of it, the proportion is very small and has no real significance. Because the asset status of listed companies is just like that, speculating on stocks does not have much significance for economic development other than cutting leeks.
Not to mention these windfalls, not all of the trade surplus from exports every year goes into the country, but part of it is used for foreign investment, which is to prevent our country's foreign exchange holdings from being too high and causing unnecessary impacts.
There is generally no shortage of money for domestic economic development. Even if there is a short-term shortage of funds, it is easy to obtain credit funds. Especially when companies like his are so restrained, the country is relatively confident about the credit expansion of these companies.
For other companies' excessive credit, there may also be concerns about low capital utilization, too large a credit scale, and too high a proportion, which will lead to a credit crisis and affect the stability of the domestic financial system.
But the companies he owns are relatively rational, or he is relatively rational. Every loan is calculated, and he will not lend as much as he needs before he has decided where to spend the money.
In the past life, there were many companies. It was because of the expansion of credit that many companies had no idea what to do with the money in their hands, but they had to pay interest. The scale of the loan funds was too large, but the returns were very low, which reduced the profits of the original industry. Swallowed.
In the end, many companies seem to be large in scale, but in fact they are expanding in an orderly manner. None of them have reached the top of the industry. They are all large but not refined businesses, with large asset scales, but very low rates of return.
The end result is a large number of credit defaults, and eventually seemingly huge companies suddenly collapse. This is one of the reasons why he is more cautious about credit funds.
With the technical content, market competitiveness and credibility of his companies, it is really easy to get a loan, and the interest rate is much lower than that of ordinary companies, because everyone thinks that the risk is very small, and it is a drought-flood-guaranteed loan.
If he doesn't stop here, his companies may borrow a large amount of meaningless funds from banks for the sake of good data, and then desperately buy assets, or expand disorderly.
This will cause originally good companies to be dragged down due to the expansion of these useless assets. It is very necessary to control the credit scale of their companies.
In fact, many banks are chasing after his companies to lend money, and the more the better, even his Minsheng Bank is no exception, but they have no effect.
If it were an ordinary company, it would either be overjoyed when encountering this kind of thing and be so sleepy that it hit the pillow, or it would have a very accurate estimate of its own strength and not over-credit.
But these companies also face a problem, that is, they are actually at a disadvantage compared to banks and financial institutions. If banks want them to lend more money, it is generally difficult to refuse them even if they want to refuse.
Because they don't need credit funds now, they will still need them one day in the future. If the relationship with the bank is too bad, they will be in greater trouble later.
In previous lives, many companies were forced by banks to lend money, because banks also needed to make profits. If the money could not be loaned out, it would be impossible to make money, so the most anxious people at that time were the bank loan officers.
This is also related to my country's economic development model in the previous life, which emphasized investment and neglected consumption. Residents were unwilling to consume and deposited money in banks. Especially in the early days, this phenomenon was very common.
Residents have huge deposits in banks, and banks need to pay interest. Naturally, they want to lend out these deposits and collect interest to obtain interest differentials.
But when the amount of deposits is huge, bank credit pressure will be great, forcing companies to invest in credit, and after companies get funds, there are only two ways to go.
The first is to purchase assets, and the second is to expand production scale. No matter which one it is, in fact, if preparations are not sufficient, you will face traps and problems.
It is impossible to get money to raise wages for employees, because no matter how much wages are paid, they will still be saved, which will further increase the credit pressure on banks.
It is not that our country wants to follow a development model that emphasizes investment and neglects consumption, but it has to do so because consumption cannot drive sustainable economic development. When consumption is sluggish, it will naturally have to expand investment and infrastructure.
The investment-based economic development model was very effective in the early stages of economic development, even better than consumption-driven economic development, because there were so many places to invest at that time, and the return on investment was actually pretty good.
However, when the investment market is saturated, vigorously developing the investment economy will gradually be unable to drive sustainable economic development, because the rate of return on investment is already very low.
This is why the importance of consumption has been increasingly emphasized in the latter part of the previous life, because at this time the ability of investment to stimulate the economy is getting weaker and weaker, but the potential for consumption is great and can become a new driving force for further economic development.
But this idea was abruptly blocked by the over-financialized real estate market. At that time, residents did not have much spare money if they wanted to spend, and even many of their original consumption plans were overwhelmed by mortgage loans.
Over a period of time, the development of the real estate market has indeed played a great role in the development of our country's economy, greatly improving the original sluggish consumption situation.
This is to use residents' daily necessities as a bargaining chip for economic development, so that consumers have to use their savings to buy houses, which are just needs. This step effectively solves the problem of residents' excessive savings.
But the problem is that everyone is interested in the benefits of real estate, because houses are a product category that residents have to consume and have attributes that other commodities cannot match.
This has led to many companies and institutions wanting to get a share of the pie, causing housing prices to get higher and higher, and residents' credit scale to become larger and larger. It seems to have a more obvious boosting effect on domestic economic development, but in fact it is an overdraft for future economic development. potential.
Moreover, a series of problems caused by the real estate economy will accumulate in the future, and eventually become difficult to recover from. It is very difficult to change, because the benefits here are too great, and the slightest move will cause a chain reaction.
Therefore, the best thing that could be done in the previous life was to keep the real estate market relatively stable, and they did not dare to let housing prices drop too much, because once this happened, it would detonate the domestic financial market.
The only way to solve this problem is to stabilize housing prices, give financial institutions time to digest, and at the same time hope to increase residents' income to relieve residents' pressure on housing prices.
It's just that this method cannot be effective in a short time. It will take decades to slowly digest it. During this period, housing prices cannot rise sharply, otherwise all the efforts will be wasted.
Moreover, the economy cannot yet experience too many twists and turns. Once the economic development is not as good as expected, residents' income will not only not increase but will decline, which is likely to trigger a debt crisis and also a financial crisis.
When we realize the many problems brought about by the real estate market, it is said that once a flower blooms, hundreds of flowers will be killed, resulting in a serious mismatch between the consumption power and economic size in other fields, restricting the development of other industries.
The most important thing is that even residents’ willingness to have children has been greatly reduced. Even because of housing problems, a large number of young people are single, afraid to fall in love, spend money, have children, and other problems.
This is why Zhao Yi has always opposed that economic development cannot be overly dependent on a certain industry. No matter what industry it is, the harm it brings is more obvious than the benefits it brings.
Not to mention other companies under his umbrella, the credit of China Housing Corporation is also strictly controlled to prevent excessive credit from causing a huge increase in earnings pressure and ultimately passing it on to residents, thus causing the same problem.
One flower blooming alone is not as good as a hundred flowers blooming. Especially in economic development, we should not rush for success and artificially create an environment to achieve the purpose of economic development. This will cause serious problems.
Although our country's economic development has been very rapid in recent years, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as riding a rocket, these economic development drivers all come from factors such as the development of industrial industries and the expansion of the global market.
In fact, it is also a natural development process, especially the rise of many emerging industries, which has led to faster global economic development and a rapid increase in market size.
In his opinion, the development of the domestic economy in recent years has been relatively stable. Rapid economic development has not caused too many problems, and even inflationary pressure is not very great.
Although there is a certain amount of inflation every year, which is higher than that in developed countries, the rapid increase in my country's economic development speed and residents' income level can completely absorb this inflation.
The most important thing is that we are not experiencing pure inflation, but an increase in product prices due to improvements in the quality and technological content of industrial products, which belongs to the category of consumption upgrading.
If the exact same product was sold for 3 yuan before, but now it is sold for 10 yuan, this is real inflation, because the feeling brought to consumers is exactly the same, without any change.
But if the original 3 yuan product has poor quality and poor experience, and is just enough, but the 10 yuan product has more functions, better quality, and more pleasing design, this is considered a consumption upgrade.
As mentioned before, the number of types of goods consumed by residents as a whole will not increase significantly. Even if their income increases significantly, the quantity will not increase simultaneously.
This means that as income increases, if product prices do not rise, the total national consumption will not increase simultaneously with residents' income. Therefore, an increase in product prices is inevitable for economic development.
However, the overall value of the product needs to match the price, and the main value matches the price. Even if there is no inflation, consumers will not feel that their money is worthless.
Because they spend more money and purchase products and services with more added value, and the experience is not comparable to previous products, they will feel that the money spent is worth it.
Another way to measure inflation is whether products of the same value can be sold in other countries at the same price as domestically.
If the domestic price of products of the same total value is much higher than the foreign price, it means that domestic inflation is very serious, because in international trade, trade prices can better reflect the true value of the product.
Many of his products are priced lower in China than abroad, and are also sold all over the world. This fully proves that his products are products with real value and price matching.
So don’t think that many of the products of his companies are very expensive, but many consumers pay for them. If they are only popular domestically, it can be said to be caused by monopoly.
But the higher price sold abroad shows that the value of the products is recognized by consumers around the world. Although these products are indeed profitable, others cannot make them. The profits here are the embodiment of the value of technology.
Now that a place where Yingjiang can suck blood has been destroyed, then they must deal with the affairs in the north and try to destroy their other place where they can suck blood. That will completely destroy their potential. (End of chapter)