In fact, the higher authorities have now discovered that saying that China is a major manufacturing country is not a compliment at all. Tianlai Xiao said WWW. ⒉
If you are doing high value-added precision manufacturing, then the profits will be very high. Such big manufacturing countries, such as Germany, the United States, island countries, etc., will become developed countries.
As for China, the so-called manufacturing country mostly relies on cheap labor to become the world's factory. This is an export-oriented economy.
To put it simply, China's foreign trade is mainly aimed at earning foreign exchange through exports.
This model can quickly improve technology and efficiency and enhance international competitiveness, but it also carries a great risk, that is, over-reliance on the international market.
Once the international market changes, it will have a serious impact or even a blow to this economic development model. This kind of economic development comes at a high price.
Developed countries are all domestic demand-based economies, and they pursue high consumption, high wages and high investment.
China's foreign exchange earnings have indeed earned a lot of foreign exchange, but what next? Part of it is used for foreign exchange reserves, and the other part is mainly used to purchase foreign bonds.
The bonds issued by foreign banks are all to promote your own consumption. In other words, if you buy someone else's bonds, it is equivalent to giving money to others, allowing others to live a squandered life.
How much can you earn from a bond, that is, it allows you to preserve its value? But if people use your money to stimulate the domestic demand economy, they have already made more.
China cannot rely on cheap labor as a means of competition, nor can it destroy the environment as a means of development. Such development is very unsound.
Just as China has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world, this seems to enhance the country's ability to resist risks, but it also has a huge disadvantage, that is, it is easily hijacked by foreign exchange, especially the US dollar.
If the US dollar is sold, the financial market will be affected, which will affect China's stock market and the RmB exchange rate. The result is that you can only buy foreign exchange but cannot sell it, which is equivalent to helping the United States stabilize the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar.
The strong economies and prosperous financial markets of the United States and the United Kingdom are closely related to the status of their currencies in the world. But this status is not static.
Just like back then, didn't Soros also lead people to attack the pound exchange rate and make a lot of money? It was also that time that the US dollar replaced the British pound and became the number one currency in the foreign exchange market.
The upper management of China has actually noticed this. Now they are gradually reducing the production of these low value-added products, just like clothing, leather shoes, etc., which were indeed very competitive internationally. However, with the EU’s anti-dumping fine, it will not be Has it been significantly affected
At this time, China is also doing import substitution, which means developing technologies related to products that China has to import to avoid being restricted by foreign countries.
Just like China is the world's largest pen-making country, the ballpoint pens that produce such a small thing must be imported from abroad.
Among them, the island countries have the best technology, followed by Germany and Switzerland. It may seem like a worthless little thing, but once the quantity is established, it will be a huge profit.
This also directly reflects that China is still far behind the world in terms of some high-precision materials and other aspects.
Is it because China lacks some scientific research talents? Of course not, China's talents are absolutely abundant.
But many talents are doing other things, such as focusing on military technology and so on. This is of course true. If the military is not strong, it will never become a powerful country.
But the integration of military and civilian affairs was done very poorly. Many technologies can be directly used in civilian applications, which can not only improve people's livelihood, but also create profits, allowing more funds to support technological development and innovation.
Is the export-oriented economy good? It is very good, but the export-oriented economy relies on the economic advantages of the country. If this advantage is technology, it would be perfect. Even if it is capital, it is better, but if it is just cheap labor, what else do you think there is to be proud of? of
As the country develops, people don’t earn more. Isn’t this wrong? Only when people's living conditions turn out to be better will that be what people expect.
China has always said that the development models of other countries can only be used as a reference and must not be copied. Everyone knows this truth.
Because the national conditions of each country are different, no one can develop according to someone else's model. Just like Thailand, if it develops according to other people's model, then how big are the hidden dangers and how disastrous are the results
Even without Feng Yu's participation and Soros taking the lead, the economy of Thailand and other countries will be severely hit, and a series of countries closely related to its economy will be implicated.
China is worried about this situation, so it has increased its foreign exchange reserves, but not too much.
In fact, it has been discovered from above that too many foreign exchange reserves have serious disadvantages. Improving the status of the national currency in the world is the most correct way at this time.
China owns too many U.S. national debts, which is equivalent to binding its economy to the United States. If the dollar depreciates and stimulates RMB appreciation, China's U.S. debt will shrink.
For example, if the exchange rate changes from 1:8 to 1:7, then the United States originally owed China 800 million RMB, but now it only needs to repay 700 million RMB. This will reduce the debt and fiscal deficit of the United States, which is equivalent to China's contribution to the United States. Debt will pay for it, and it will also cause inflation in China.
What should I do if I don't want to lose money? Continue to buy U.S. dollars, raise the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, and let China continue to increase its foreign exchange reserves of U.S. dollars. Then the cost of China's products exported abroad will increase and its competitiveness will decrease.
The main reason is that the United States owes China too much money, and China has too much foreign exchange investment in the United States.
This change in exchange rate will have a serious impact on China's property. If you look at the Japanese yen, the exchange rate is very low. Does it mean that the economy of the island country is bad
The appreciation of RmB is already a trend. At this time, we must try our best to avoid losses and make this trend slower and more reasonable.
Currency must be consistent with purchasing power, especially with the economy of the country. This is fundamental.
Of course, many issues may be considered one-sided by Feng Yu. After all, he doesn't know much about some upper-level political dynamics. However, China's trade surplus is too strong and a large amount of international hot money is pouring into China. This is definitely not a good thing.
In particular, much of this trade surplus is achieved through export subsidies. Many companies rely on this export subsidy to make profits. Can such companies be said to be doing well
China's exports are severely restricted by international technical barriers, and there are more and more anti-dumping cases against China, which will bring a lot of losses to China.
If the United States wants China and other countries to pay for this economic crisis, then Feng Yu must find a way to make the United States pay for this idea!
… (To be continued.)