The international economic situation continues to deteriorate, and the financial market has been greatly affected. However, at this time, the prices of energy futures and precious metals such as gold continue to rise.
The price of crude oil has risen to US$95/barrel, and is still rising today.
But at this time, many people became nervous again. Because the price of crude oil is about to touch the 100-yuan line, which is a line that many people think is impossible to break through.
How could crude oil exceed such a high price of one hundred dollars? Even if it is irrational speculation, it is time for those international financial speculators to step aside.
Once this line is breached, many major crude oil importing countries will suffer huge losses. Can those big countries just watch the irrational rise in crude oil prices
But they ignored that in the late 1970s, crude oil also exceeded the $100 line, and based on the inflation rate, the price was much higher than it is now.
When supply exceeds demand, price increases are normal. The world's demand for crude oil has increased this year. Some OPEC members have also reduced crude oil production like Iran. Although leaders like Saudi Arabia have not announced this, it is true that crude oil is in short supply.
Do you want to say that China has no oil fields of its own? Yes, the reserves are not too bad.
But just as resources in island countries are not exploited, many resources in China are also restricted from exploitation. Some resources are mainly imported, while domestic resources are mainly used to stabilize domestic prices by increasing production when the prices of related resources are artificially high.
In the future, China's crude oil imports will rank first in the world, ousting the United States because the demand is too great. At that time, what measures did China take
It is to establish joint venture oil fields abroad, that is, you have oil, we provide equipment to extract it, and then pay you back, such as in places in Africa.
At this time, the United States still ranks first in the world in crude oil imports. Because they have the largest number of cars and the most fuel-efficient cars, many families have several cars.
The demand for crude oil is still growing, but some oil-producing countries have begun to reduce production. Coupled with the push by Feng Yu and other large funds, the price of crude oil has exceeded the $100 line. Feng Yu believes that it is more than 50% likely.
The reason why there is only a 50% chance is that international speculators like the Rothschild family may not continue to speculate with Feng Yu and others.
There is also Soros, who is also speculating in crude oil at this time, but they are also planning to exit and enter the gold market.
When large sums of money continue to withdraw from the market, and fewer people follow the trend, how can the price be pushed up
But this possibility is only when OPEC announces that it will not cut production. Once OPEC announces a crude oil production cut, the price of crude oil will inevitably be pushed up again, even without the participation of Soros and others. International hot money retail investors alone are a huge force.
Will OPEC announce a crude oil production cut? Feng Yu’s answer is, definitely!
Why
The main purpose of the OPEC organization is to extract oil, which is the oil originally stored underground, and it can be extracted by drilling wells.
But there is another way to obtain oil at this time, and that is artificial oil.
The original artificial petroleum was synthesized from coal extract, or from asphalt oil sand extract to synthesize petroleum.
But now, the United States is planning to launch a new technology on a large scale, and it is said to be a mature technology, which is to convert extracts from oil shale into synthetic oil.
This method has not been taken seriously by OPEC before, but when the American oil company announced that it has mastered this mature technology, OPEC had to pay attention to it.
Because the United States, Canada, Australia, China, Congo, Brazil and other countries have relatively abundant oil shale reserves, and many countries such as Russia also have some reserves.
It can be found that the countries surrounding the United States have very large reserves. Once this technology is promoted, it will inevitably have a major impact on the original crude oil price.
Moreover, major crude oil importing countries such as China are also studying this technology, mainly through cooperation with some crude oil companies, and even European Shell.
OPEC originally complained when these large energy-consuming countries replaced crude oil with natural gas. However, OPEC is also a major exporter of natural gas, so it did not take any drastic measures.
There are also many countries that use coal and other energy minerals to replace crude oil and other energy minerals, which will affect the interests of OPEC countries. And non-OPEC oil-producing countries should not be underestimated, such as the United States, China, Russia, etc., which also produce very large amounts of oil.
OPEC oil-producing countries have always wanted to consolidate and enhance their status. At this time, the emergence of shale oil will seriously affect their status. How can they endure it
The United States has always relied on Saudi Arabia for crude oil imports. They are also worried that Saudi Arabia will use crude oil to affect their strategy, so they have long planned to renegotiate with Saudi Arabia and sign some contracts that are more beneficial to the United States.
Saudi Arabia will definitely not do it. We have done nothing, and you and the United States have no reason to attack us. Although you have a strong military, Russia, China, etc. will never sit back and let you bully us, so Saudi Arabia refused without hesitation. U.S. requirements.
At this time, the United States' shale oil technology was announced, and Saudi Arabia went to the United States to negotiate. Shale oil cannot be mined and produced because it contains some harmful gases that are difficult to control.
But it is difficult to control, not impossible. The extraction of oil itself may also pollute the environment.
How could the United States agree to Saudi Arabia's conditions? We have finally succeeded in researching this technology, and the cost of synthetic oil is not particularly high. Why not do it? If you don’t do it, won’t all your previous investment be lost
The United States disagreed, and China and other countries naturally ignored Saudi Arabia at all. If you don’t want us to produce this, fine, you can just sell it to us cheaply, but Saudi Arabia can’t agree to that.
The negotiations are still ongoing, and the attitude of the United States is ambiguous, but Feng Yu is sure that the United States will never give up on shale oil in the end. In order to teach the United States a lesson, Saudi Arabia will definitely lead the OPEC oil-producing countries to collectively announce a production reduction. This has resulted in a significant decline in crude oil production.
As a result, crude oil prices will inevitably rise again. And the financial speculators who got the news would never let go of this good opportunity.
At that time, crude oil prices will be unstoppable if they exceed one hundred dollars!
… (To be continued.)