On November 5, the voting for the 1996 U.S. election officially opened. With Clinton continuing to crush Dole in the polls for many months, everything seemed calm and even affected the people's desire to vote.
The voting results came out that day, and Bill Clinton easily won the election with 49% support and as many as 379 electoral votes.
The other two opponents, Republican Bob Dole, only received 41% of the public vote and 159 electoral votes. The third-party candidate Ross Perot, who once again came to disrupt the situation but whose influence has dropped significantly, only received 8% of the votes this time, and naturally lost a single electoral vote.
Because it was so natural, this election also recorded the lowest turnout since 1924. Only 49% of the American people voted, and it was the first time in more than half a century that the turnout fell below 50%.
On the other hand, Bill Clinton's second term also broke the curse that had prevented Democratic presidents from being re-elected since Franklin Roosevelt.
Presidential elections in election years always overshadow legislative transitions and gubernatorial races, and this time is no different.
However, for the American elite, no one will underestimate the other two aspects.
Compared with the overwhelming momentum in the presidential election, the Republican Party still maintained its advantages in both houses of Congress and gubernatorial elections. Just like the 'pendulum effect' of the midterm elections two years ago, the Democratic Party failed to achieve the same results in congressional and local elections this time. A key reason for the victory was that a large number of people deliberately cast split votes.
Since Clinton came to power, the U.S. economy has recovered strongly. In four years, more than 10 million new jobs have been created, and the unemployment rate has dropped from nearly 8% during the Bush era to 5%. This is the best state in ten years. However, the constant scandals that broke out between the president and his wife during their first term also caused confusion among voters to a large extent. On the one hand, they recognized Clinton's ability to govern; on the other hand, they subconsciously voted to contain Clinton in congressional and gubernatorial elections.
According to statistics from polling stations across the federal government, more than 13% of Clinton supporters chose to vote for the Republican Party for Congress or governor. At first glance, the proportion of 13% does not seem to be much, but after calculation, it is enough to cause a fundamental reversal of the electoral situation in many areas.
All in all, the next four years in the United States will continue to see a tug-of-war between the White House and Congress.
At the same time, to a large extent, it also made the Republican Party pursue Clinton's private information even more fiercely, so that in the past history, the Zippergate scandal occurred, and the spectacle of the US president's impeachment was once again staged, and even Vice President Al Gore later participated in the presidential election. In the general election, in order to avoid being implicated, he deliberately avoided Clinton, whom he had seemingly cooperated with for eight years, and did not allow the other party to help him in the election.
On the day after the election results were released, the capital market first gave the most direct feedback.
Bill Clinton's re-election obviously means that the economic policies of the past few years can be continued, so it is a major benefit. On November 6, the Dow Jones Index rose by 1.5%, and the even more eye-catching Nasdaq Index rose by 1.5% in a single day. The increase reached 2.1%, soaring from 5315 points at the opening to 5426 points.
As a result, the market values of the two leaders of the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, Daenerys Entertainment and Ygritte Corporation, have reached new highs.
After Daenerys Entertainment's market value exceeded US$500 billion in mid-October, it immediately fluctuated and once again returned to the US$400 billion range. However, on November 6, relying on a single-day increase of 1.8%, Daenerys Entertainment Group The market capitalization ultimately reached $526.3 billion at the end of the day.
What is even more eye-catching is Igret Company.
On November 6, Igret's stock price rose by 1.6%. Although it was not as high as Daenerys Entertainment's increase, the total market value at the close of the day had reached 579.6 billion US dollars, which was only 20.4 billion US dollars away from the 600 billion US dollars mark. For the U.S. dollar to exceed 600 billion, it only needs a 3.5% growth.
The U.S. stock market still seemed crazy. However, as the dust settled on the 1996 election, the situation immediately became delicate.
After the election, many people began to operate around the U.S. stock market, covertly or covertly, with the focus naturally being on the Nasdaq technology stock sector.
New York.
On the north shore of Long Island, about 30 kilometers away from Manhattan and across the sea from Greenwich City, in a mansion in the affluent area of Latington, it was Friday evening, November 8, where a ceremony for a Republican elected member of the New York State was being held. celebration reception.
Richard Mellon Scaife, who has recently become more active in the political and business circles on the East Coast, arrived early and skillfully interacted with the guests confirmed in advance. The most important contact target of the night, Julian Robertson, moved to a study room specially set aside by the host's house.
Over the past month or so, the arrogant and domineering Richard Mellon Scaife, who has been going smoothly for decades since his birth, secretly wanted to give eye drops to a certain young tycoon. After it was revealed, he added threats from the other party. , for the first time in my life, I was frightened for a long time, but the thunder was loud and the rain was light.
After receiving a stern warning at a family meeting hosted by his uncle, Scaife did not reveal the revelations, but insisted on not closing the "Pittsburgh Tribune" despite family pressure. Just kidding, how could a newspaper worth 50 million US dollars be shut down at the drop of a hat? Even if the family said they could give him some compensation.
The Mellon family has never been so cowardly in its two hundred years.
Although his attitude was tough and he didn't even make an apology call as requested by his uncle, things turned out pretty well.
This seems natural to Scaife.
Two years ago, Simon Westeros went to war with the Hearst family, which ultimately severely damaged the Hearst family's vitality. In fact, it has aroused the vigilance of many old money families in the United States. If this young man confronts the more deeply entrenched Mellon family over a trivial matter this time, the traditional capital forces in the entire federation may have to unite to avoid being constantly ridiculed by this young man with no knowledge of the sky and the earth.
However, although he has passed this test, as a son of the top old money family in the federation, Richard Mellon Skye has spent millions of dollars to disgraced Clinton in the past few years because he could not stand it. The more my husband thought about it, the more he couldn't swallow it, so during this period, he frequently secretly cultivated connections in various conservative old money circles on the East Coast. After all, even if the growth rate of the Westeros system is miraculous, the current core political and business system of the United States is still in the hands of traditional capital.
Scaife reshaped his experience more than a month ago and said that no matter what, the Westeros system cannot be allowed to continue to expand.
After some patient research, Scaife first set his sights on the Nasdaq market.
As long as the new technology bubble is burst, a series of new technology giants that are the core assets of the Westeros system will inevitably be severely impacted, and even Simon Westeros' personal assets will shrink significantly.
In the study room.
After a brief exchange of greetings, Scaife took out a document and handed it to Julian Robertson, the head of Tiger Fund, and said: "Julian, this is a document that a financial reporter in Boston was suppressed some time ago. This press release, I know Tiger Management has been bearish on technology stocks, maybe this article can be a good breakthrough."
Julian Robertson took the information and let it go. He only glanced at the statement and couldn't help but frown slightly.
—A shocking conspiracy, a Ponzi scheme in the Internet industry!
As a professional and veteran Wall Street fund manager, Julian Robertson sneered at articles whose titles seemed to be sensationalistic. However, since it was sent by Scaife, he still read it patiently, and his expression became more and more serious.
To put it simply, a Ponzi scheme is a scheme where someone uses high returns and high interest rates as bait to defraud investors of their funds. While dividing the profits, they use the funds of latecomers to continuously repay the principal and interest of previous accounts, and this cycle continues until Unable to survive and fall into collapse.
The article Scaife took out described the current Internet industry in full swing as a large-scale 'Ponzi scheme'.
The article has obviously been repeatedly processed, and both the cases and data are detailed. It also points directly at the three most popular technology giants in the Westeros system. It believes that the serious bubble in the new technology field at this stage is entirely caused by Cisco and AOL. Through joint public opinion building and a set of interest chains similar to a Ponzi scheme, the three companies with Yigrit have tied countless investors and ordinary users into a seemingly prosperous Internet industry chain.
In reality, the industry is worthless and will eventually collapse.
In addition to the overall conclusion, the article gives very detailed arguments and annotations. Taking Yigrit as an example, this company continues to gain from various industries through expensive monopoly businesses such as basic Internet tool software, cloud computing and online advertising. This kind of defrauded investors and entrepreneurs who have been deceived by public opinion have formed a source of income that has continued to grow at a very high rate in recent years.
On the other hand, Yigrit continues to attract people through online services such as portals, e-mails, social networks, and video websites that appear to be free but actually consume a lot of public time. Through America Online's illegally subsidized low-price access fees, reached hundreds of millions of Internet users.
In order to continue this false prosperity, Yigrit also opened up payment channels such as online outsourcing platforms and video website advertising sharing that also rely on large amounts of Ponzi subsidies that cannot actually bring stable job opportunities to society, and further defrauded users. its production content.
The result of this Ponzi scheme is the current false prosperity in which three companies in the Westeros system account for 20% of the total market value of Nasdaq.
Under this false prosperity, more and more start-up companies that were deceived and encouraged to invest in the new technology market burned all their funds within the interest chains of the three companies in the Westeros system, and gradually became unsustainable. Most companies None of them achieved the returns they imagined. Only the three giants, Cisco, AOL and Igret, benefited.
Julian Robertson read the entire article carefully and exhaled quietly.
If Robertson had not conducted detailed research on the Internet industry, he would have almost believed this article, which is logically rigorous and full of conspiracy theories that can easily inflame public sentiment. It is conceivable that once this article is released, it will definitely be a super bomb for the Internet industry that has peaked to the point of crumbling at this stage.
Richard Mellon Scaife waited for Julian Robertson to close his eyes and think for a moment after reading the article, and then asked: "So, Julian, what do you think?"
"You can incite the public, but you can't fool smart people."
For an emerging industry, the criterion for judging whether it is a bubble is actually very simple: whether it can create wealth.
The core of the Ponzi scheme is to spread the word by beating the drum, and it is also a zero-sum game to a certain extent. Someone loses as much as someone makes.
The Internet is obviously not. Take Yigrit as an example. In any case, Yigrit’s matrix of basic Internet tools and software, as well as increasingly large cloud computing services, and even portals, social networks, e-mails, etc., are all It is the wealth created by the labor of countless people, including a large amount of intellectual property and digital assets.
Perhaps emerging countries do not recognize these, but for Western developed countries, these are wealth.
Therefore, even if a bubble does exist, the Internet itself is a platform that can truly bring changes to the work and lives of countless people.
Scaife said: "Julian, what we need is the result of 'inciting the public', isn't it? At this stage, the number of retail investors in the federal stock market has reached the highest level in decades. After this article is thrown out, as long as it can cause panic, If it causes a stampede effect, the Nasdaq index will inevitably collapse, and Tiger Management will definitely make a lot of money if it plans to do so in advance.”
Julian Robertson had just listened to another guest chatting about Scaife's recent activeness at the reception. At this time, he was not entangled in this matter. He thought about it for a moment, shook his head and said: "Not enough, still not enough."
"Of course, I know this is not enough," Scaife said: "So, Julian, I hope we can join forces and use our connections to push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. In addition, there is the Department of Justice, although everyone knows that the White House and Westeros wears a pair of trousers, but it does not mean that we have room for maneuver. If Ygrit can be split, there will be negative stimulation in many aspects, and the Nasdaq index will definitely collapse."
After hearing what Scaife said, Julian Robertson thought about it for a moment again before asking: "So, Charlie, what do you want me to do?"
Scaife said: "Of course, use your connections. Let's promote this matter together, avoid fighting separately, and ultimately make a profit together."
Julian Robertson slowly rubbed the paper leaves on his lap with his fingertips and said: "Igret's antitrust case is still under investigation. Coupled with the White House's position, there is no possibility of a result in the short term."
Scaife thought for a while and said: "Then find someone to release some news at the right opportunity, such as finding key evidence of Yigret's alleged monopoly, splitting up is inevitable, and so on, this matter is easy. "
Julian Robertson nodded.
The two discussed some more details, ended the conversation, left each other's contact information, and were about to walk out of the study together. Scaife remembered another thing and said to Robertson: "Julian, I know you and Soros are good friends. And Thoros is very close to Simon Westeros?”
Julian Robertson waved his hand and said: "Don't worry, this is business, I won't say anything I shouldn't say, and George's thoughts are not in the Federation during this time."