Everyone knows the benefits of currency hegemony, but few countries are eligible to compete. As an international trade settlement currency, at least the following basic conditions must be met:
1. The economic volume of the currency issuing country must be large enough;
2. The import and export trade volume of the currency issuing country must be large enough;
3. The exchange rate of the currency itself is stable;
4. The currency issuing country has the ability to guarantee currency redemption;
5. If the currency issuing country itself is the world police.
In modern times, the British were the first to meet these basic conditions, so the pound became the earliest international currency.
However, due to the low level of communication and economic globalization, the promotion of sterling has not been smooth, and people are more keen to use gold and silver in international settlements.
With the continuous increase of international trade volume, pure gold and silver settlement has become outdated, and the British pound has entered the stage of history and became the earliest international currency.
It is a pity that at this time, Britain's economic hegemony is no longer stable. In the process of establishing monetary hegemony, it has been challenged by the franc and the Aegis.
Once an opportunity is lost, there is no more. With the passage of time, Britain gradually lost its advantages in industry and economic size, and the hegemony dream of the pound came to an end.
Especially after the end of the European Continental War, the Holy Roman Empire was reunified again, and the strong position of Aegis on the European continent was established, making it the most favorable competitor for currency hegemony.
The advantage is the advantage. Before the dust settles, no one can guarantee that there will be another accident. Franz clearly remembers that there is still a kingdom of heaven, and he is working hard at the moment.
There is no way, the natural conditions of the Americans are too superior. Basically all resources can be self-sufficient, even if it is divided into three, it still has the potential to become a top power.
Whether it is the United States or the Confederate States, their development potential far exceeds that of Britain, France and Spain. The United States, in particular, has even more development potential than Russia.
The current defect is nothing more than the double lack of population, quality and quantity, which has become an important factor restricting the economic development of the two countries.
Although Franz made preparations in advance and sent an indefinite time bomb before the Americans could react, it is unknown whether or not this thing will explode.
Franz doesn't want to pin his hopes on the unknown. Instead of waiting for the challenger to develop, it is better to use the existing advantages to determine the general trend in advance.
Once monetary hegemony is established, it is not so simple to overthrow it. In later generations, the old and the United States played tricks and made all countries miserable. The hegemony of the US dollar has not been shaken.
The reason is very simple, it is the siphon effect. Currency hegemony brings together funds from all over the world. With money, technology develops faster and military hegemony is consolidated.
Step by step, step by step. Once the status of hegemony is established, just like the leader of the Internet industry, it will be crushed by the latecomers.
Once Aegis's currency hegemony is established, "the only one who can kill the Holy Roman Empire is the Holy Roman Empire itself."
Economic Minister Reinhardt analyzed: "Your Majesty, if you want Aegis to become an international settlement currency, then our economic model must also change.
For Aegis to become an international settlement currency, the biggest problem it faces is the export. With the continuous increase of international trade volume, simply issuing international loans can no longer meet the demand.
In the early years, in order to reduce the loss of capital, we adopted a balanced foreign trade model. For most of the past four decades, we have had a trade surplus.
It's not that this kind of surplus is bad. In fact, in the past few years, we have built up our wealth little by little by relying on the surplus in foreign trade to develop.
But to break the pound and make SHIELD the mainstream currency in international settlements, it seems out of date.
In terms of currency output, the British are the best subjects to study. At present, the way of exporting the pound mainly depends on the trade deficit model of the British.
If we want to transition to a trade deficit mode, we have to make a trade-off, reducing the amount of commodity exports or increasing the amount of commodity imports.
The Ministry of Economy believes that some unimportant low-tech industries can be given up to other countries, and we focus on developing high-tech industries. "
The issue of Aegis output has been discussed many times by the Vienna government. In order to better promote Aegis, as early as 20 years ago, the Vienna government continued to issue international loans to countries around the world.
Without the background of exporting Aegis, no matter how politically needed it, it would be impossible for an inferior customer like the tsarist government to borrow so much money from the empire.
However, the speed of borrowing is fast, and the return of capital is equally fast. As the world's first industrial power, all industrial and commercial products can be found here. Most of the debtors, after getting the money, haven't warmed up yet, and then took it out for consumption.
Needless to say, in this context, even if the Vienna government just wanted a trade balance, the final result would still be a trade surplus.
The result of the surplus is a large influx of capital, which not only promotes the development of the imperial economy, but also hinders the development of international trade.
To put it simply, there is a large outflow of gold and silver, and trading partners have become poorer and have no money to buy more goods.
Knowing is knowing, it is not an easy thing to change the economic model. A bad operation will bring huge losses.
Franz now somewhat understands why later generations of Americans want to play with deindustrialization. Aren't industries that are highly dependent on labor, moderately polluted, and low-tech industries the object of abandonment
When it was almost time to give up, people of insight suddenly discovered that the country was hollowed out. However, this time is too late.
Competitors rely on cheap labor to develop, and if they want to resume industrialization, they can only accelerate artificial intelligence research and rely on robots to compete with cheap labor.
Franz doesn't know what the final result will be, anyway, before he crosses, artificial intelligence has not replaced artificial intelligence.
"Which industries is the Ministry of Economy ready to give up?"
Abandoning some industries is inevitable, and Franz is not an idealist. How is it possible to not only enjoy the dividends brought by currency hegemony, but also do not want to bear the sequelae brought by hegemony
It's just that the specific industry to give up needs to be studied.
Economy Minister Reinhardt: "The industries that the Ministry of Economy intends to abandon are mainly concentrated in low-end manufacturing and non-renewable resource extraction.
Mainly include: mining of rare resources, textile industry, printing and dyeing industry, low-end clothing and footwear production...
Taking into account the needs of domestic economic development and employment, it is obviously unrealistic to directly shut down these industries. In the short term, the measures we have taken are to strictly approve new mining and low-end industrial enterprise registration.
At the same time, import tariffs on products in related fields will be reduced, and these outdated production capacities will be phased out through time and market competition.
If the plan goes well, in about five years, we will enter the era of trade deficit. "
Franz breathed a sigh of relief that there was no core industry among the industries he was about to give up. It seems that the Ministry of Economic Affairs is still qualified and knows what is the foundation of the country.
If someone at the top of the government really proposes to give up core industries, then Franz will have to consider whether to overturn the table and change the way of competition for currency hegemony.
After all, this generation of leaders was carefully selected by him, and they are all so short-sighted, let alone future successors.
Later generations of Americans engaged in the hollowing out of their industries because they saw the rapid development of artificial intelligence, which could be picked up again at a certain point in the future, so they dared to play like that.
Because of a misjudgment, the expected technological breakthrough did not happen, and everyone regretted it.
If you play like this in the 19th century, you can refer to the French in the original time and space, who did not gain currency hegemony, and turned themselves from an industrial empire into a usury empire.
With the lessons learned, Franz naturally did not dare to take it lightly.
In the same competition for currency hegemony, the Vienna government has two choices. The most lucrative one is of course his own battle; secondly, Franz can also push the European Continental Union out to seize currency hegemony.
In a sense, the latter is more likely to succeed. This year, the strength of the European Continental Alliance has been gathered, not to mention the British, even if the whole world is added together, it is not enough to see.
The only problem is that investing in the largest Holy Roman Empire, the rate of return that can be obtained is not high, and it may only be a little more now.
After pondering for a while, Franz shook his head: "The risks brought about by the transformation of the economic model are very great. We are different from the British. It is okay to learn from it, but it is unnecessary to follow it.
For the sake of safety, what we can do in the short term is to reduce the mining of minerals, regardless of the mines that have been developed, and the mines that have not been developed should be strictly reviewed.
Which minerals must be developed, which minerals can be reduced, and which minerals can be temporarily closed, the government must have a bottom line. Do not act blindly and affect domestic economic development.
It is best to introduce a relevant natural resource law to legally prohibit the export of mineral raw materials. Including coal and oil, these energy sources can also be temporarily included in the resource control list, and export is strictly approved.
Strictly review the low-end manufacturing industry and reduce capital inflows. The rest is left to the market to make a choice. There is no need to specifically reduce tariffs. Too deliberate is not beautiful.
In the short term, the government's focus can be placed on pollution control, especially in the core local areas, and heavily polluting enterprises in the upper reaches of lakes or rivers must be relocated or shut down. "
Comprehensive pollution control is unrealistic, not only without the technology, the Vienna government does not have that much money.
However, Franz still has the confidence to make a certain degree of fine-tuning, relocate or close some heavily polluting enterprises.
Anyway, in order to promote the Aegis, the Holy Roman Empire will gradually enter the era of trade deficit, just taking the opportunity to eliminate some heavily polluting industries.
In order to promote Aegis, Franz also fought hard. Even its own oil industry can be included in the resource control list.
Of course, this is also a limitation of the times. The demand for oil in the international market is not high, and the "oil-Aegis system" is even less of a problem.
Moreover, restricting oil exports is not a benefit. On the surface, the money is made less, but in fact it hits the competition.
As an important oil exporting country, once the Holy Roman Empire reduces crude oil exports, international oil prices will inevitably rise.
Affected by this, the promotion and use of internal combustion engines will inevitably be affected. Now is the critical period of the second industrial revolution. Once missed, it will be difficult to catch up.
For killing two birds with one stone, Franz doesn't mind sacrificing a little money temporarily. Anyway, the oil is buried in the ground and can't escape.