Before coming here, Li Mu didn't expect that Zhao Xianliang would be able to impart so much experience to him with all his heart.
Taobao has been highly recognized by the government for its potential in stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic development, and has also received many macro-favorable policies, including "computers entering the city", corporate tax exemptions, and vehicle import and purchase taxes. Facilitating conditions such as tax exemptions and land acquisition, but these are all supports provided by the Economic and Trade Committee on behalf of the country. Li Mu has never asked the local government for help.
Macroeconomic benefits naturally need to be formulated by the state or at least the local government, but for matters like land, it is still necessary to communicate with the local government. After all, the local government is the parent of the enterprise.
Li Mu recalled some interesting anecdotes he had seen in his previous life. Some listed companies that had been losing money for consecutive years announced financial reports and unexpectedly made profits that year. The reason for the profits turned out to be that the company sold a piece of land or some high-priced properties in Yanjing. This Although the news makes people feel dumbfounded, it is indeed enlightening if you think about it carefully.
In later generations, a larger property in Yanjing would often cost tens of millions. If it is a house in a school district, it is not a problem to buy a small apartment for ten million or twenty million. Then the question is, how many companies can achieve annual profits of more than ten million? of? Except for a very small number of companies that make money like printing money, a considerable number of companies seem to be very large, but after maintaining the entire plate running as usual, it is already very remarkable to make little or no profit. In this case, When a company sells a property, it makes a profit of tens of millions, which is naturally very conspicuous in the financial report.
Although Li Mu also penetrated into the real estate field through Wanying, all this has nothing to do with self-occupied offices. Taking advantage of the fact that Yanjing Zhongguancun has not yet developed outside the Fifth Ring Road, he quickly approached the municipal government to ask for two pieces of land within the Fifth Ring Road. Not only It can solve the problem of office space once and for all, and can also add a significant amount to the fixed assets of the company. You must know that the land price in Yanjing will skyrocket in the future. If you open your mouth now, the Yanjing city government may be able to give you a little more. Wait. If I open my mouth after the price is high, I am afraid that the Yanjing Municipal Government will also feel pain.
After making up his mind, Li Mu admired Zhao Xianliang a little more. Someone who has been through it is someone who has been through it, and his experience in many fields is much deeper than his own.
At this time, Zhao Xianliang saw that Li Mu mainly listened to himself and rarely spoke and expressed almost no personal opinions, so he couldn't help but ask him: "By the way, what do you think of the future development of coal and steel? "
Li Mu said modestly: "I don't know much about these two industries. Coal has been influenced by some of my parents. I know that coal prices have started to rise since last year. I don't know much about the rest. As for steel, I know nothing about it. "
Zhao Xianliang said with a smile: "You don't need to know much, you just need to roughly analyze the prospects of these two industries based on your current understanding."
Li Mu thought for a while and said, "Then I think overall we should be relatively optimistic. After all, the domestic economic situation has been developing very well in recent years, and the energy demand is definitely increasing, and the real estate industry is so hot. Coupled with infrastructure construction everywhere, the demand for steel must be growing, and if we don’t consider the level of national regulation, the overall situation should be getting better and better.”
Zhao Xianliang nodded: "It's true that everyone is optimistic about the overall trend of the industry, but the policy level is a bit unclear. The macro-control of these two industries is very complicated, and once it is regulated, it will be very powerful."
Saying that, Zhao Xianliang added: "In comparison, the steel industry is more complicated than the coal industry. Our domestic coal reserves are large and the mining volume is large, and we are almost entirely self-sufficient; but steel is different. Our country is There is little iron ore, low grade, and the whole industry relies on imports. In addition to state regulation, it is also subject to iron ore suppliers, so the whole industry is very passive."
Li Mu suddenly remembered the very famous iron ore negotiation incident in his previous life. Huaxia had lost the negotiations with the three iron ore giants for six consecutive years. As a result, the entire Huaxia steel industry had to pay at least 700 billion yuan in additional costs. Although Li Mu did not know the specific situation, But generally speaking, I remember that the main reason is actually the lack of say in the Chinese steel industry in front of the three giants.
Thinking of this, Li Mu asked curiously: "Uncle Zhao, if you want to control the price of iron ore, what kind of strength do you need?"
Zhao Xianliang smiled and said: "Become the Big Three, or control the Big Three, there is no other way."
Li Mu couldn't help but ask: "Are the three giants you mentioned so powerful?"
Zhao Xianliang nodded: "The three giants refer to Australia's BHP Billiton, Brazil's Vale and the British Rio Tinto Group. BHP was established by the merger of BHP and Billiton last year. These three companies not only control a large amount of iron ore production capacity, The most important thing is that they have long held the pricing power in the international trade of iron ore. As long as the pricing power is in their hands and is not weakened, there is nothing we can do."
Li Mu asked him: "Is it possible to acquire the Big Three?"
Zhao Xianliang smiled and said: "Theoretically, it is possible, but it is extremely difficult to implement in practice. Not to mention the huge net profit margins of these three companies themselves. The most important thing is that the scale of capital they can leverage behind them can reach a scale of trillions of dollars. It is basically No individual or company can shake or intervene. Behind these three giant companies, capital from all over the world is involved. Wall Street bears the brunt. Companies with strong control capabilities such as Goldman Sachs are especially scary. In addition, there are also powerful The Japanese chaebols, Australian and Brazilian chaebols and governments are among them, and the interest game behind them has long been beyond the control of enterprises."
Saying that, Zhao Xianliang introduced: "In fact, many steel companies in China have thought about intervening in iron ore prices. Some companies have even tried to take shares in iron ore companies, but it was useless. This kind of investment is equivalent to retail investors' stock speculation. It's just that The most basic investment and shareholding can at most interfere with corporate operations, but it has no say in the pricing of iron ore."
Li Muwu nodded to himself and said jokingly: "Look at it this way, if you want to control iron ore, you must first control Wall Street..."
Zhao Xianliang smiled and said: "There is another way, which is a worldwide economic crisis. What real enterprises fear most is the economic crisis."
Li Mu subconsciously asked: "How do you say it?"
Zhao Xianliang took out a box of cigars from the drawer, handed one to Li Mu, lit one himself, and then smiled: "What do you think, how much does it cost to maintain the operation of a coal mine? Government costs, loans before putting into operation Cost, hardware cost, equipment depreciation and labor cost... these are all before you. As a rough assumption, if your coal mine has an annual output of one million tons and an annual hard cost of 400 million, then the coal price will be around 400 million tons. When the price exceeds 100 yuan per ton, you make money; the coal price of 400 yuan is the critical point for the operation of your coal mine. What if the coal price breaks through the critical point and plummets to less than 400 yuan? What do you think, what I just said Which cost is less?"
After saying that, Zhao Xianliang paused and replied to himself: "The fact is that the cost of every link is indispensable! Not only can the cost not be reduced, but you still have to keep operating despite losses and cannot stop production, because once production is stopped, your The workers will run away, the banks will worry about your inability to repay the bandwidth and seize your coal mine, and your other creditors will come to collect debts. Then there will be chaos, and your coal mine will die soon, so even if you lose money, you can only If you can bite the bullet and continue to make losses, while expecting the industry to pick up, at this time, everyone is fighting for their foundation, and coal mines that cannot survive will close down one after another."
Li Mu said thoughtfully: "If a coal mine is under such great cost pressure, the costs of giant ore mining companies like the Big Three will be even higher..."
"That's right." Zhao Xianliang said: "If the iron ore market falls below the critical point of the Big Three, their room for loss will be very large. Don't look at their current profits of more than one billion US dollars a year. If The market is really broken, and it is possible to lose seven to eight billion US dollars a year."
When Zhao Xianliang said this, he changed the topic and shrugged: "But it doesn't make much sense. Even if the iron ore market really breaks through at a certain point in time, it won't be a big deal to them. Their foundation is too weak." It’s so thick that I can afford to lose…”
When Li Mu heard this, he basically gave up all the obscene thoughts in his brain. He originally thought that he might have a chance to reverse Huaxia's huge losses in iron ore in the future, but now it seems that this idea is simply too unfair. In reality, even the country with the largest steel production and iron ore import volume in the world has not been able to control these three giants. Instead, it has been ripped off by these three giants. What does it mean to be a little shrimp like yourself
Zhao Xianliang said to Li Mu jokingly at this time: "If your company can grow quickly and gain a firm foothold in the U.S. capital market, with your development speed, you may be able to achieve a pivotal position on Wall Street in the future. By that time, Maybe one day you will actually be able to influence the steel industry on another level.”
Li Mu couldn't help but laugh: "This goal is really too big."
Zhao Xianliang smiled and said: "Just chatting, nothing is impossible. You can create so many miracles in more than a year. I believe that if you go to overseas capital markets, you can still be like a fish in water."
After saying that, Zhao Xianliang reminded: "However, there is one thing I want to remind you."
Li Mu hurriedly said: "You tell me."
Zhao Xianliang said meaningfully: "We must have more contact with capital. We must not only contact capital, but also understand the entire capital market and cooperate more with capital. In a word, we must get close to capital! Treat capital as your lover!"
Although he doesn't understand the Internet, Zhao Xianliang can also see that Li Mu is extremely cautious about financing. Makino Technology has been quiet after two rounds of financing, and Taobao has not even raised a round. In his opinion, although Li Mu can raise more funds in this way, of equity, but this is not a truly healthy model.
At this time, Zhao Xianliang took a sip of cigar and continued: "The truly healthy model must be to purposefully find a capital company that will help you in the future to cooperate, sacrifice part of the equity, exchange for a large amount of cash, and at the same time, cooperate with the capital company To realize the bundling of interests, for example, if you accept capital from Wall Street, if you want to be listed in the United States in the future, capital will definitely use all its power, mobilize all channels and relationships to help you promote it. Once you are familiar with the capital circle, Once you have enough funds and resources in your hands, you will suddenly change your identity and become capital yourself!"
The third chapter has been delivered, and there will still be three updates tomorrow! Also, sorry, Twitch wrote Zhao Xianliang as "the first industry" in the first two chapters, which has been revised~
(End of chapter)