Indeed, the chance of Black Butterfly winning is very slim.
In the game of neurasthenia, the advantage in memory ability is the most intuitive advantage. In this regard... Black Butterfly cannot be compared with Feng Bujue.
However, there is another factor that can determine the outcome, and that is... luck.
In the round just now, although Feng Bujuehao scored 24 points, as he himself said, based on his "absolute memory", such a score is not too exaggerated in terms of probability.
Except for the 9 points that must be obtained, the remaining points can be regarded as the case of "five of the six flops with gradually decreasing probabilities are successful", and this "probability of gradually decreasing" is about 20%. It has been reduced to 7%, and then terminated.
So, what he's done this round... should fall into the category of "nice luck."
There's nothing special about it, so it's not "gambling", it's just a "game", which is considered "boring" by Jue Ge.
Plus, by the time the round was over, his seemingly "good" luck had actually turned the tide...
Because Feng Bujue turned over cards in the last three hands, all of which were "a suit has already been revealed"; "The number has increased from three pairs to six pairs.
In addition, the number of unknown cards on the table has decreased... Now when the opponent turns over unknown cards, the probability of finding a scoreable card has once again increased to more than 15%.
...
In the eleventh round, the round where Black Butterfly flopped.
After Brother Jue cleaned up the table, there were not many known cards left, so Black Butterfly was more sure about the suits of those cards.
In the first hand, she still opened a new card at a position closer to the known cards according to her own rhythm.
result. This is a "two phases are clear" card, that is, a "scoreable card".
Black Butterfly doesn't have Feng Bujue's spare energy of "obviously remember, but I can save it later". She's definitely going to score points whenever she gets a chance.
So, she immediately went back to find the other two sides of the new flop...and it worked.
"This lady gets three points." The referee's announcement came immediately. "You can continue to flop."
The next move, the situation remains...
Black Butterfly turned out another scoreable card, and she quickly converted it into points.
Next time, it's still the same...
Just like that, Black Butterfly tied the score calmly, and... Due to the reduction in the number of cards, the probability of her finding a scoreable card in the next hand is higher than 7%.
"Oh...how?" At this time. Black Butterfly smiled and said to Brother Jue, "It's not that I have no chance at all, right?"
"Hmph... I was mentally prepared for this difference in luck long before the start of the duel." Feng Bujue responded indifferently, "In short... before reaching the 'that score', you can turn as many times as you like."
"That score?" Black Butterfly heard the words, thought for two seconds, and continued, "Oh~ you mean... 33 points?"
Black Butterfly had undoubtedly studied the rules of the game carefully before the duel, so she knew that - 33 points was a very critical score.
According to the rules. After the two sides reveal the "twenty-five phases" in total, the player can turn over two "Pure Land of Ultimate Bliss" to end the game and enter the settlement stage.
So. Leaving aside the huge disparity in the outcome, let's take a game where both sides have a certain score as an example... Twenty-five phases can be split into twelve vs. thirteen, or eleven vs. fourteen.
In the case of twelve vs. thirteen, the score ratio is 36 to 39. At this time, the lagging side turns over to the Pure Land of Bliss, and with an extra 10 points, 46 to 39, they can turn defeat into victory.
In the case of eleven against fourteen. The score ratio is 33 to 42 at this time. The lagging side pulled out the Pure Land of Bliss, plus an extra 10 points. 43 to 42, also turned defeat into victory.
That is to say, in this game, if the loser wants to make a comeback, there is a prerequisite, that is, to get at least the "eleven phases", which meets the minimum conditions for a comeback.
Theoretically, the most ideal situation is: in the round where twenty-four phases have been revealed on the table, it is the turn of the trailing side to flop, and at the moment when it turns over the twenty-fifth phase, it happens to hold 33 points, and then... He/she then turns out "Pure Land of Ultimate Bliss" to end the game.
This is the fastest and best comeback mode for the lagging side. If you continue to procrastinate... the gap in points may gradually be widened, because when there are not many unknown cards left on the table, the probability of finding a scoreable card will increase greatly, and two consecutive "one-to-one" cards will be turned over Probability is not impossible. At that time, the side with stronger memory and fewer mistakes will definitely have a higher scoring rate than the opponent.
"Since you know." Feng Bujue's tone is still very relaxed, anyway, the opponent should know the meaning of this number, there is no need to marvel, "Then please work hard in this direction."
"Oh... you don't need to say, I will too." After the black butterfly responded, he continued to flop...
...
By the end of the eleventh round, the score comparison between the two sides was 24 to 30, with Black Butterfly leading.
After that conversation, Black Butterfly turned over two more scoreable cards, consuming the two-phase cards in the known cards until only one pair remained.
Then, in the last three hands of flops...she actually turned over two "Zero-Phase Cards" in a row, that is, a card with no known suit, and...she also turned over the second "Pure Land of Ultimate Bliss" ".
So, when the round is over, there are only two known pairs left on the table, and... the positions of the two "Elysiums" have been determined.
At present, the total score of the two is 54 points, that is, the "eighteen phases" have been revealed, and the number of remaining cards on the table is 48; among them, 20 cards are known, including 2 Infernal Hell, 2 Ultimate Bliss Pure Land, It is composed of 4 "both phases are bright" cards and 12 "one phase is bright" cards.
There are 28 unknown cards, namely 2 Infernal Hells and 26 phase cards.
That is to say, at the beginning of the twelfth round, the probability of Feng Bujue being able to find a scoreable card among the unknown cards is 2/28, which is basically the same as the probability that he failed in the previous round. , only about 7%...
See here. Surely someone will say, can't he not turn over an unknown card? Isn't it enough to turn over three known cards and then throw the same situation to the opponent
The answer is - yes. But... doesn't solve the problem.
According to the "Flop Rules" of [Triple Neurasthenia], players are in three consecutive rounds. At least one unknown card must be turned over, otherwise five points will be penalized.
The purpose of this rule is to prevent players from consuming their flop chances by constantly flipping cards that have appeared before. As for why it is "three consecutive rounds", it is natural to consider that some people will "turn over three known cards without scoring" due to misremembering cards; , the risk of penalty points will be incurred by the third time...
Combined with the current example, if Feng Bujue chooses to turn over three known cards in this round to consume his right to flop, then it will be Black Butterfly's turn. The other party can do the same... Anyway, Black Butterfly doesn't care. As the party with weak memory ability, she is very happy to see both parties keep digging out old cards to help her consolidate her memory.
Besides, she is the "backward attacker". In a situation where no one is willing to turn over a new card, the last attacker has at least "one card" advantage, because the first attacker will definitely expose one more new card than the opponent. Card.
Of course, Feng Bujue wasn't the kind of person who would deliberately turn over known cards to defend.
Real gamblers, thugs know... you can't win that way.
For example, in the game where Brother Jue cheated Jin Mianchou in the number guessing game... If he was thinking "what if I only guessed three or four numbers", or "what if the other party really stuck until the seventh round?" "Do it", then he will retreat, avoid... In the end, he will lose.
The devil at the table will not respond to the appeals of the weak. Instead, they will devour those people...
Give in, avoid, give up thinking, and instead pray and plead inwardly. These actions only invite failure and destruction.
Those who can win must be convinced at that moment-"I must be able to guess more than 5 numbers". If you can't guess, you may die, but it doesn't matter if you die.
Only such a will can guide "fortune" and call for "victory".
...
"Ah... as expected..."
In the twelfth round, in the first hand, the unknown card that Feng Bujue turned over... was a "one-pointer".
At this moment, he has two choices: the first one. It is a safer approach - give up continuing to refurbish cards, and go back and turn over two known cards. End your round. Like this, only added a pair of known pair to the other side. And reduced an unknown card. By the time Black Butterfly attacks, the odds of flopping a scoreable card on the first hand are 3 out of 27, about an 11% chance.
And another more risky approach is to turn over another unknown card. If the card turned over in the second hand is of the same suit as the first hand, he can score.
So... what is the success rate of doing this? What is the risk of failure
It can be calculated from the known cards that among the 27 unknown cards at this moment, 22 are all pairs, that is, cards with "one phase is clear", 3 cards are "two phases are clear", and 2 Zhang is the hell card.
If Feng Bujue wants to score, he has to turn out the "Heel Guangping Phase" he turned out first hand in this round, and the probability of it is only about 3%; if he fails to turn it over, he faces three possibilities...
First, he has an 81% chance of turning over the "one-phase-clear" card, and then makes a pair of known pairs for the opponent, so that the probability of the opponent turning over a scoreable card in the next flop rises to more than 15%.
Second, he has a 7% chance of turning over one of the other two "two phases are clear" cards, allowing the opponent to directly get a 100% chance to score in the next round.
Three, with the same 7% chance, he will turn over the hell card, and this... is the best result, so the probability of the opponent drawing a scoreable card will increase to 11.5%, which is not much.
To sum up, no matter how you look at it, it is better to choose a safe way here.
But…
"According to this trend, if I turn over another card, it will most likely be..." Feng Bujue had already turned over the second unknown card while muttering.
As a result, he turned over a "Two Phases Are Clear" card.
Because he has flipped twice in this round, and of different suits, it is impossible to score. Therefore, the piece he dug out was almost certain to be the opponent's score.
"Hmm... It seems that the luck is completely on your side." Feng Bujue looked at the worst result, but he didn't care, "I think you will get more than 6 points in the next round."
As he said that, before he could wait for the other party to respond, he turned over the third card.
What is incredible is...he turned over an unknown card again; this time, it turned out "One Phase Brightness", so there was another pair of bright pairs on the table.
"What the hell is this guy trying to do..." Black Butterfly couldn't understand, she thought to herself, "I can still understand second-hand... A man like him who is so arrogant and narcissistic may indeed be in this kind of situation." I always fight with a fluke mentality; but this third hand... under the premise that it is impossible to score and will almost certainly give me more advantages, he still flips an unknown card?"
"Please..." In the next second, Feng Bujue's voice interrupted Black Butterfly's thoughts, "I know what you are thinking... hehe... don't hesitate about things that you can't understand. You should take advantage of it Before the memory is blurred, take the points you should get. If you make a mistake here...then it would be too easy for me to win."(.)< ;="">